Playing Red: How Our Adversaries Wargame

Matthew B. Caffrey, Jr

Wargaming Branch

Air Force Research Laboratory

What is a Wargame

What is a Wargame

Reality

Simulation

Model

Sim Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multi Sided

Armed Conflict

Rommel, you magnificent

b______, I read your book!

George C. Scott

In the movie Patton

Imitation is the most sincere form of compliment.

Milton Berle

Why listen to me?

• Author – On Wargaming
• Co-author – Gulf War Fact Book
• Originator of the Connections conference
• Designer of several wargames
• Originator, Commercial Wargames db

​

​

Why listen to me?

Previously

• Civilian
• Professor of Wargaming & Campaign Planning, Air Command & Staff College
• Research Associate, School of Advanced Airpower Studies
• Military, Colonel USAFR (ret)
• Senior Reservist, Information Directorate, Air Force Research Lab
• Chief Wargame Strategy, HQ USAF/XOOC (CHECKMATE)

​

Overview

• Former Adversaries
• Germany
• Japan
• Soviet Union
• North Vietnam
• Iraq
• Potential Adversaries
• Hammas
• North Korea
• China
• Iran
• Future Adversaries

Former Adversaries�Germany

• Prussian origin of Modern (second generation) Wargaming
• Originally used to develop strategists
• Under Moltke evolved to develop specific strategies
• Given much of the credit for success in the wars of German Unification

German Wargaming

Red

White

Blue

German Wargaming

Red

White

Blue

• After 1871
• Adjudication tailored to level
• Break Points
• After Moltke (the younger) logistics

German Wargaming

Red

White

Blue

Frequency of adjudication

roughly matches decision cycle.

The Diffusion of Wargaming

Austro-Hungarian

England

Italy

France

Russia

Secondary diffusion

1820 / 1875 / 1905

1874 / 1889

1873

1872 / 1883

1866

Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.

Former Adversaries�Germany

• Prussian origin of Modern (second generation Wargaming)
• Originally used to develop strategists
• Under Moltke evolved to develop specific strategies
• Given much of the credit for success in the wars of German Unification
• WWI use ignored political dimension

Former Adversaries�Nazi Germany

• Pol Mil wargaming stopped by Hitler
• Pre war wargaming used for doctrinal development – Blitzkrieg, Wolf Packs

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

War

The Strategy Cycle �a.k.a.�The Caffrey Loop

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Wargame

The Strategy Cycle �a.k.a.�The Caffrey Loop

Former Adversaries�Nazi Germany

• Pol Mil wargaming stopped by Hitler
• Pre war wargaming used for doctrinal development – Blitzkrieg, Wolf Packs
• Use during war – develop evaluate plans
• 1940 Western campaign
• Operation Barbarossa
• Normandy Invasion

Former Adversaries�Japan

• Sophisticated Pol-Mil wargame
• Disconnect between Pol-Mil and Mil
• Pearl Harbor – pinnacle of effective wargaming?
• Midway – less guilty than apparent
• Still missed critical insight (Point Luck)
• Why Japan fought

Former Adversaries�Soviet Union

• Distinctly different from German/US/ Japanese methods

Soviet Wargaming

Red

White

Blue

Both Red and Blue submit plan

for entire battle/campaign.

Soviet Wargaming

Red

White

Blue

White fights plans against each other.

Soviet Wargaming

Red

White

Blue

Debriefs both sides on final outcome!

Former Adversaries�Soviet Union

• Distinctly different from German/US/ Japanese methods
• Pre war wargame predicted territorial loss
• Extensive use during offensive phase of war
• Huge post war effort to collect/compile “historical norms”
• Basis for Cold War Wargames – instruction to satellites and clients.

Former Adversaries�North Vietnam

• Employed Soviet method of wargaming
• Used wargaming down to the lowest level
• Allowed multi element attacks with little if any comms
• Weaknesses not recognized until late in war

Former Adversaries�Iraq

• Learned ground/joint wargaming at Soviet War College
• Purchased air wargame from US contractor – perfectly legal
• Evidence they used Soviet style wargame during final phases of Iran/Iraq war
• Evidence of use during ODS & OIF

Potential Adversaries�Hammas

• Purchased license to use US video game engine – perfectly legal
• Used to create two “American Army” type first person shooters
• Goal similar to “American Army”
• Recruitment
• Teach doctrine

Potential Adversaries�North Korea

• Little known of North Korean’s wargaming methods
• Circumstantial evidence they used Soviet methods during Korean war
• If so, given their isolation, they are unlikely to have adopted new methods

Potential Adversaries�China

• Circumstantial evidence they used Soviet methods during Korean war
• Made significant effort to learn US methods during period of good relations during the 1980s.
• Current efforts appear to be to acquire US hardware but internally develop more comprehensive adjudication software

Potential Adversaries�Iran

Potential Adversaries�A Current Friend?

Future Adversaries

• US success & globalization will increase the use of US wargaming technology – or better – being used against us.
• Wargaming capabilities once only available to states are now available to individuals.
• Potentially our adversaries could purchase wargames that are more effective than our legacy models.

Conclusion

• Knowing how your adversary wargames can provide insights into their capabilities and limitations.
• The US military needs to incorporate the best of how others wargame.

To Learn More

• On Wargaming, Matt Caffrey, Air University Press, pending
• The Art of Wargaming, Peter P. Perla, Naval Institute Press, 1990
• Soviet Style Wargames, Sloan, Jalali, Wardak, and Giessler, Science Applications Inc., June 1986
• Chinese War Termination Calculus and its Impact on PLA Operational Plans and Decisions, Charles Hawkins, unpublished, 18 May 2003