Canada’s Energy Future: 2023 Report of Canada’s Energy Regulator�

A briefing

David Robertson

Education Committee

SCAN!

Overview

• Introduction and context
• Canada’s Energy Future
1. Review general findings
2. Negative emissions and faulty assumptions
3. Wrong energy profile
• Ontario
• Implications

Season of accelerating and deepening crisis

• The climate crisis is in uncharted territory. Predicted but uncharted.
• Blistering heat waves, domes and heat storms, droughts and wildfires, torrential rains and floods, ocean surface temperatures at new heights, sea ice at new lows.
• Climate records repeatedly shattered.
• The worst wildfire season in Canadian history is displacing indigenous communities across the country.
• Global heating and extreme weather has made this the season of climate chaos.

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The season of government reports

• In May, the federal government published the 2023 edition of Canada’s official greenhouse gas inventory.  National Inventory Report (NIR)
• In June, Canada’s Energy Regulator (CER) published its 2023 annual report on Canada’s Energy Future.
• In July, the Ford government published Powering Ontario’s Growth: Ontario’s Plan for a Clean Energy Future.

Out of step and out of touch

• It is alarming how far out of step and out of touch those government reports are with the world as we now know it.
• What is so alarming is the juxtaposition of those reports with the climate disasters.
• There is no normal anymore. This is the new world

The season of government reports

• In May, the federal government published the 2023 edition of Canada’s official greenhouse gas inventory.  National Inventory Report (NIR)
• In June, Canada’s Energy Regulator (CER) published its 2023 annual report on Canada’s Energy Future.
• In July, the Ford government published Powering Ontario’s Growth: Ontario’s Plan for a Clean Energy Future.

The season of government reports

• In May, the federal government published the 2023 edition of Canada’s official greenhouse gas inventory.  National Inventory Report (NIR)
• In June, Canada’s Energy Regulator (CER) published its 2023 annual report on Canada’s Energy Future.
• In July, the Ford government published Powering Ontario’s Growth: Ontario’s Plan for a Clean Energy Future.

The season of government reports

• In May, the federal government published the 2023 edition of Canada’s official greenhouse gas inventory.  National Inventory Report (NIR)
• In June, Canada’s Energy Regulator (CER) published its 2023 annual report on Canada’s Energy Future.
• In July, the Ford government published Powering Ontario’s Growth: Ontario’s Plan for a Clean Energy Future.

Canada’s official greenhouse gas inventory:  2023 National Inventory Report (NIR)

• The first report after the Covid downturn in GHG emissions
• Emissions are ramping back up.
• On a sectoral basis the biggest culprit is the oil and gas sector which is barrelling ahead.
• On a regional basis, Alberta and Ontario are the biggest problems

Powering Ontario’s Growth

• More SMRs
• More Large nuclear
• More fossil gas electricity plants
• More ‘carnival barking’ carbon schemes
• No action on the climate emergency

Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050

Canada’s Energy Regulator: Background

• Two functions
• First:
• They regulate pipelines, energy project developments and energy trade
• Monitor companies operating pipelines and electrical powerlines that cross a national, provincial or territorial border.
• Second:
• Develop and share energy statistics, analysis and information

CER a champion of the fossil fuel sector

• Year after year the agency would provide rosy projections about the future growth of oil and gas.
• It operated in a climate crisis vacuum where its annual outlooks were inconsistent with reaching Canada’s emission targets.
• It took for granted that climate action and policy would continue at a snail’s pace.
• And every year climate activists would sound the alarm and criticize the CER’s pro fossil fuel projections.

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This year the report is dramatically different

• Responding to the pressure from climate activists
• National Resource Minister Wilkinson asked the CER to “provide even more data in line with Canada achieving net-zero emissions by 2050”

The importance of this year’s report is this: �

• For the first time in its history the CER has asked what Canada’s energy future might look like if Canada was to achieve its net-zero emissions commitment by 2050.
• And for the first time in its history the CER has projected a dramatic reduction in Canada’s oil and gas production and use.

The CER modelled three scenarios

• “In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius (°C).
• In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also achieves net-zero emissions by 2050, but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce GHG emissions.
• The third scenario, the Current Measures Scenario, assumes limited action in Canada to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place today and does not require that Canada achieve net-zero emissions.”

General Findings: �Bad news for oil �and gas

Env. Defense

With the climate policies in place as of 2022 oil and gas production will continue to grow and we will not reach net-zero. In other words the current suite of policies is totally inadequate.

The drop in both oil and gas in the global net zero scenario is huge

Combined Oil and Gas

• Fossil fuel use drops by 65% from 2021 to 2050 in the Global Net-zero Scenario,
• and by 56% in the Canada Net-zero Scenario

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CEF indicates a 65% drop in oil and gas but what is needed is an even larger decline�

• That evidence is found in the CER’s overly optimistic view of negative emission technologies.

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Negative emissions �and faulty assumptions

What does net zero mean?

What does net zero mean?

Negative emissions and faulty assumptions

• BECSS (Bioenergy with carbon sequestration storage) results in around 60 MT of negative emissions
• Magical thinking
• LULUCF results in 50 MT of negative emissions
• Ignores the facts
• DAC results in 46 MT of negative emissions
• unlikely

The ‘wrong’ emerging �energy �consensus

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

Electricity only accounts for 42% of energy use in 2050

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

wind

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

uranium

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

solar

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

Fossil gas

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

hydro

Figure R.25: Energy use to generate electricity by fuel, Global Net-zero Scenario

biomass

A troubling emerging consensus about an energy future that has too much

• Nuclear
• Gas with CCUS
• BECSS Bio-energy with carbon capture
• Fossil fuel based hydrogen
• And not enough solar, wind, geothermal, water

Ontario, the climate outlier

Appendix 2: Technology Assumptions

Global Net-zero 

Here are the numbers for the best-case scenario of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.�

The capital cost of solar power is projected to be “$535/kW by 2050.”

The capital cost of wind will be “$1,630/kW by 2050.”

The capital cost of SMR’s will be “$6,519/kW by 2050.” 

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implications

• Provides ammunition
• for divestment campaign, fossil fuel campaign
• Suggests some policy focus attention (negative emissions, nuclear)
• Reinforces focus on Ford’s climate crimes and bad energy choices
• Counter the industry offensive
• Arguing for a 2035 rather than 2030 target to reduce emissions by
• Massive public funding for CCUS
• Counter the wrong emerging energy consensus
• Reinforces what as climate activists we argue: There is no alternative to phasing out oil and gas