IMAG/MSM Working Group on Multiscale Modeling and Viral Pandemics Mini Seminars
Jan 27, 2022
Welcome - The meeting will start at 3PM ET
NOTE: THE MEETING WILL BE RECORDED, STREAMED AND PUBLICLY AVAILABLE�FOR THOSE MEMBERS UNABLE TO ATTEND
Agenda
People
Co-Lead: Reinhard Laubenbacher, PhD
Department of Medicine
Laboratory for Systems Medicine
University of Florida
reinhard.laubenbacher@medicine.ufl.edu
Co-Lead: James A. Glazier, PhD
Dept. of Intelligent Systems Engineering and Biocomplexity Institute
Indiana University, Bloomington
Web Administration, Slack: James P. Sluka, PhD
Dept. of Intelligent Systems Engineering and Biocomplexity Institute
Indiana University, Bloomington
Activities Coordination: Lorenzo Veschini, PhD
King’s College London
Slack Channel
https://Msm-working-group.slack.com
Our IMAG/MSM Wiki page
https://www.imagwiki.nibib.nih.gov/working-groups/multiscale-modeling-and-viral-pandemics Feel free to suggest additional content!
Or, use the Tiny URL: https://tinyurl.com/hkr97vfe
IMAG’s LinkedIn
YouTube “MSM Working Group on Multiscale Modeling” https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuDFvhgFziRRDcpRnT3vlrw �see also the links on our seminar page at https://tinyurl.com/5fra7jjd
Please follow the�group on Twitter!
If you could re-tweet the weekly announcements �(there are usually two, one for each speaker) �that would help boost attendance and community awareness.
Announcements
�Any short (~1 minute) items such as;
Schedule for Upcoming Meetings and mini-Seminars
Feb 3:
Feb 10:
Feb 17:
Feb 24:
Request for future speakers (Feb 3, …)
Rules of the Meeting
Please mute your microphone and hold questions until after the presentations
Mini-Seminar�Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?
Stacey Smith?�University of Ottawa
In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (β) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned—as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine—then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout.
Mini-Seminar�
Vivek Kapur,�Pennsylvania State University
Requests for Input/Suggestions
We would like the subgroup leads to prepare brief presentations for the Thursday meetings, please let us know when you would like to present
Ideas/help for publicising our Thursday mini-seminars more effectively and for speakers to invite
Suggestions for agenda items and approaches to organizing the Steering Committee Meetings more effectively
There have also been a number of requests for more explicit statements of goals and tasks from the WG leadership, we would appreciate your suggestions
Please contact Reinhard Laubenbacher, James Glazier, James Sluka or Bruce Shapiro with your ideas on all of these issues
fini