Introducing Prediction Feeds

@trentmc0

Trent McConaghy

Ocean Protocol

Miami vs sea level rise [NOAA]

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/3/-9116942.098935427/2998366.760233425/8/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

Today

0.9m

2.1m

3m

Miami sea level prediction feeds

It will be underwater 🤯 ; only question is when

https://climate.miami.edu/politics-of-climate-change/visualizing-sea-level-rise/index.html

Previous sea level prediction feeds were too optimistic

https://skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm

"underestimated the rate of sea level rise because the rapid melting of the ice sheets and glaciers was not incorporated"

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There's a lot on the line!

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How do we get more accurate predictions?

Previous sea ice prediction feeds were too optimistic

https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate.htm

"Melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models …40% greater…"

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There's a lot on the line!

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How do we get more accurate predictions?

There's great value for accurate prediction feeds

In climate, real estate, agriculture, logistics, crypto markets

There's a lot on the line!

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How do we get more accurate predictions?

Towards accurate prediction feeds

Accurate predictions are hard. No accountability when wrong

For accurate prediction feeds, make predictions accountable

Correct → $$, wrong → lose $

The goal

• 10,000+ prediction feeds
• globally-distributed
• anyone can predict and earn $
• accountable ---> accuracy
• non-custodial
• privacy-preserving

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predictoor

ocean

Predictoor Overview

Predictoor

traders

predictoors

sell

individual predictions

buy prediction feeds

Exchange

trade

↑↓↓↓↑↓↑↑↓↑↑↓↑↑↓↓↓↑

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↓↓↑↑↓↓↑↓↓↑↑↑↓↑↓↓↑↑

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↑↑↓↑↑↑↓↓↑↓↓↓↑↑↑↓↑↑

Predictoor Structure

BTC/USDT prediction contract, ..

Oasis Sapphire EVM chain

traders

predictoor.ai

dapp

predictoors

Template Predictoor bots

↑↓,

$

Exchange

predictoors, traders, …

Template

Trader bots

$

$

predictoor.ai & testnet is live

Prediction feeds for the top 10 tokens (non-stablecoins)

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For USDT pairs on Binance

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5m ahead predictions

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Predictoor bot templates

Predictoor

Trader

Life cycle of a prediction

epoch t

epoch t+2

epoch t+1

Contract

∑

Distribute $

Buy feed, see

↑↓ pred'n & stake

traders

Buy / sell

Store ↑↓

Exchange

Sell / buy

Get trueval "↑"

traders

trueval agent

Submit "↑"

$

$$

predictoors

predictoors

Predict "↑"

"↑"

"↓"

$$

$$

(and stake)

$

$

$

Predictoor & privacy

Predictoor & privacy: the challenge

Predictoor needs privacy for:

1. Submitted predictions
2. Compute aggregate predictions; and
3. Aggregated predictions - only subscribers can see

(While remaining decentralized, non-custodial, etc.)

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Ocean Predictoor uses Oasis Sapphire for Privacy

We researched & prototyped many privacy technologies.

We chose Oasis Sapphire:

• It could handle the privacy needs cleanly end-to-end
• It's the only privacy-preserving EVM chain in production (!)
• Uses Intel SGX as Trusted Execution Environment (TEE)

x

Privacy

• Contract state confidentiality
• Flexibility - public or private

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Strong security/integrity guarantees

• Need to break secure enclave
• Separation of key management and compute nodes

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Full EVM compatibility

• Easy to use with familiar tooling
• User-facing tools: Web3 gateway, wallet, block explorer
• Dev tools: Solidity/Vyper, Hardhat/Truffle, etc.

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New built-in functions: RNG, signing, encryption

Sapphire: Confidential & EVM Compatible

Oasis Privacy Layer�Flow Overview

• Private data management
• DID
• Secret ballots
• Fully confidential NFT unlockables
• Sealed bid auctions
• Games with zero trust assumptions
• Private payments

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Use cases for on-chain privacy

How to Earn $

How to become a predictoor

Calling all AI/ML jedis

1. Play with predictoor.ai

2. Do Challenge DF

One-off predictions

3. Run a predictoor bot

Continuous predictions

4. Optimize the bot

Increase $$

↑↓↓↓↑↑↓↑↑↓↑↑↓↑↑↓↓↓↑

How Predictoors Earn $

1. Feed sales
• All $ goes to predictoors (except a % for fees)
• Distributed pro-rata by stake among correct predictoors
2. Stake reshuffling
• Incorrect predictoors have their stake slashed
• Slashed stake is distributed pro-rata among correct pdr's
3. Predictoor Data Farming
• An incentive program that amounts to additional $ for pdr's
• 37,000 OCEAN/week rewards (≅ $10K/week)

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4. (Bonus) Challenge DF. One-off predictions

5. (Bonus) Passive DF & Volume DF. Lock OCEAN for veOCEAN, curate

How to become a trader in Predictoor

Calling all trading wizards

1. Play with predictoor.ai

2. Run a trader bot

Continuous trading

3. Optimize the bot

Increase $$

How Traders Earn $

One single yet powerful main way to earn:

Trading revenue. Buy low and sell high (and vice versa).

• All $ goes to predictoors (except a % for fees)
• Distributed pro-rata by stake among correct predictoors

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Bonus: Passive DF & Volume DF. Lock OCEAN for veOCEAN, curate.

Sample Benchmark

BTC/USDT on Binance

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Model training dates:

Jan 1, 2021 to Jun 30, 2023

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Prediction dates:

Jul 1, 2023 to Jul 24, 2023

Always 5m ahead; 7000 ticks

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"Baseline" trading strategy:

• if prediction is "↑" then buy, if "↓" then sell
• exit the position 5 min later

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This example:

• accounts for order-book slippage
• ignores trading fee ⚠️

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Predictoor for devs & entrepreneurs

• Create your own dapps & prediction feeds for a different vertical
• Code is all open-source Apache2

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• Use prediction feeds as a new DeFi primitive. "Future oracles"
• For derivatives on top. Relation with options, futures, etc
• For stablecoins & loans: predictions to reduce collateralization ratio

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• And whatever you else you dream of:)

Timeline

Sep 12

Predictoor

Testnet

Predictoor

Mainnet

60min feeds

Oct 10

Predictoor

Data Farming

Nov 9

4 wks

4 wks

Conclusion

Introducing Predictoor

Accountable Accurate Prediction Feeds

• Crowd-sources predictions
• Globally distributed, non-custodial
• Built on Ocean stack
• Privacy-preserving via Oasis Sapphire
• Predictoors make $ doing AI/ML; traders $ by using feeds

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Try at predictoor.ai

Introducing Prediction Feeds

@trentmc0

predictoor

ocean

Appendix

How to get more accurate prediction feeds

Main idea:

• Get people to put $ where their mouth is
• Accurate prediction → make $. Inaccurate → lose $.

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• Q: Isn't this prediction markets? They use $ for accountability.
• No, those are for one-off predictions. E.g. "will Biden win in 2024?"

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• What we want: a stream of predictions over time, ie a "prediction feed"
• Time-series not one-offs

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