Dr. Bulat Yessekin

National Focal Point on SDGs of Kazakhstan (1998-2014)

Climate Change Key Policy Adviser to the Government of Kazakhstan (1997-2000)

GWP board member, GWP regional Committee (since 2003)

UNECE Committee on Environmental Policy, Bureau member (1998-2013)

Asia and the Pacific Forum on E&D, Board member (2000-2004)

International expert on water management, climate change and green economy (since 2007)

Coordinator of the Central Asian Water and Climate Change expert platform (since 2021)

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New model of water management is the key entry point for SDGs and climate sustainabilty

Water is the most sensitive element from temperature changes��with an impact on soil conditions, droughts, agriculture, health, drinking water, energy, natural hazards and other sectors��If mitigation is about GHG (now),�then adaptation to climate change is Water!

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Water is a circulatory system of

Central Asia and the entire Planet - it requires a common and holistic approach

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Aral Sea region: just 50 years ago and today

Since the 60s, more than 400 dams have been built for irrigation and energy in Central Asia, and now it is planned to build 200 more!

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Resulted by the Aral Sea ecological catastrophe- the biggest disaster in modern history

With the dust storms (several thousand tons/year) from the new “Aralkum desert”

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and with life expectancy decreased from 64 to 51 years

Bcm

Kazakhstan: national level water demand-supply projection

2020

2030

2050

• Economic demand for water resources will be growing 0,9% p.a. in BAU (if no additional efficiency improvements take place)
• Demand growth correspond to 3,9% p.a of GDP growth and reflects industry +4,1% p.a. , electricity demand +2,2% p.a

1

• Glacier accelerated melting due to climate change bring additional supply starting from 1980-s
• This supply is a one-off windfall and is claimed to be non-renewable with possible supply decline by 2050

2

• Accessible and sustainable supply represent amount of water that can be used to satisfy economic demand without putting at risk nature and eco-systems and independent of climate change
• Supply will decrease 1,5%% p.a due to transboundary river flow decrease of 42% by 2050

3

2010

Water gap

…

1 Sustainability of glacier run-off is questionable, in 2050 supply might be significantly reduced

~13

9

3

13

7

17

12

24³

22

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McKinsey: By 2030 only 50% of water demand will be met in Kazakhstan, which will destroy all economic and social goals!

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Droughts in Kazakhstan- new reality

Balkhash Lake Ecosystem is the world largest lake ecosystem with the area of 512,000 km²

- more than the UK, Denmark, Switzerland, Holland and Belgium all together

At the same time, the Lake itself plays a fundamental role as a regulator of ecological balance, supporting the life of 50 000 rivers, watering places, lakes, human health and the economy of the entire basin

Balkhash Lake Ecosystem is the world largest lake ecosystem with the area of 512,000 km²

- more than the UK, Denmark, Switzerland, Holland and Belgium all together

McKinsey: by 2030 business as usual deficit will be

1,9 bcm with ecological catastrophe similar to the Aral Sea disaster

McKinsey: by 2030 business as usual deficit will be

1,9 bcm with ecological catastrophe similar to the Aral Sea disaster

Source: Team Analysis, interviews, Charting Our Water Future

1 Not quantified, need detailed studies to be conducted

2 does not include cooling upgrades in power production - water savings are by product of energy efficiency levers

3 Invetments estimate include replenishment costs if lifetime of the asset is less than 15 years

Measures to cover demand-supply gap in 2030

Bcm

Estimate of total investments/state investment³

Bln USD

Enablers

Establishing water quota or tariffs reflecting full cost of water, revise subsidies and incentives for saving water

• Introduce water efficiency technologies in irrigation (Drip, sprinkle, use of fertilizers)
• Change crop-mix to value-added and lower water consuming - rice and cotton reduction in favor of vegetables and greenhouses
• Irrigation system and conveyance losses decrease

• Power generation water efficiency increase mainly come along with energy efficiency increase (cooling technologies, waste water reuse)
• Mining water efficiency - chemical dust suppression , paste tailings

• Fix municipal and household leakage
• Water pressure control
• Set household appliance efficiency standards

• Transboundary flow negotiations
• Other supply measures¹
• Irrigation infrastructure1
• Dams and reservoirs maintenance
• Groundwater resources use

Enhance basin governance system on national and basin level to enforce cross-�sector cooperation

Efficient use in municipalities

3,8

Increase supply

~0,1-0,3

Efficient use in industry

~1,5-2

Efficient use in agriculture

7,0

Demand-supply gap in 2030

12,9

6,3/3,1⁴

2,0/0,13²

0,12/0,1

…

McKinsey: But the total gap of 1,9 bcm can be economically covered and even with profit of 33 mln USD!

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McKinsey: But the total gap of 1,9 bcm can be economically covered and even with profit of 33 mln USD!

AND 12 YEARS HAVE PASSED WITHOUT ANY ACTIONS!

And challenges: Climate Change!

ADB, RETA-7532

It was clearly recommended to adopt National plan on preservation of the Balkhash Lake ecosystem with

the integrated indicator

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The level of the Lake is not lower than 341m BS (as the critical balance between runoff and evaporation)

is the key indicator for all economic and social development gals and programmes throughout of the whole basin

As well as the key indicator for the adaptation to climate change!

Measures and indicators for the restoration of this ecosystem

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• Water tariffs- 4 KZT/m3 as minimum level for stimulation of water saving and the private investment
• Replacement of rice and other water-intensive crops - at least 45 thousand hectares
• Transition to a new classification of water bodies -EU Water directive 2008/105/EC
• Reduction of communal water consumption, e.g. in Almaty city from 500 to 150 l/capita
• other quantitative indicators

Successful international experience shows

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• The basins of rivers and lakes should be the basis for the management of the territory - as integral and indivisible objects for the management

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• Transition from the short-term and sectoral management to the ecosystem/ water basin management with priority of ecosystem conservation goals�
• And the objectives for the conservation of the basin's ecosystems as a condition for the economic development should be priority

Links of the SDGs?

The ecosystem of Lake Balkhash is the world's largest lake ecosystem with the area of 512,000 km2

- more than France

​

At the same time, the Lake itself plays a fundamental role as a regulator of ecological balance, supporting the life of 50 thousand rivers, watering places, lakes, human health and the economy of the entire basin

Balkhash Lake Ecosystem is the world largest lake ecosystem with the area of 512,000 km²

- more than France

McKinsey: by 2030 business as usual deficit will be

1,9 bcm with ecological catastrophe similar to the Aral Sea disaster

McKinsey: But the total gap of 1,9 bcm can be economically covered and even with profit of 33 mln USD!

AND 10 YEARS HAVE PASSED WITHOUT ANY ACTIONS!

And challenges: Climate Change!

ADB, RETA-7532

It was clearly recommended to adopt National plan on preservation of the Balkhash Lake ecosystem with

the integrated indicator

​

The level of the Lake is not lower than 341m BS (as the critical balance between runoff and evaporation)

is the key indicator for all economic and social development gals and programmes throughout of the whole basin

As well as the key indicator of ecological sustainability and adaptation to climate change!

Successful international experience shows

​

• The basins of rivers and lakes should be the basis for the management of the territory - as integral and indivisible objects for the management

​

• Transition from the short-term and sectoral management to the ecosystem/ water basin management with priority of ecosystem conservation goals�
• And the objectives for the conservation of the basin's ecosystems as a condition for the development and continuation of economic activity should be priority

Only localization of SDGs based on ecosystem approach can clearly show the links between SDGs and identify its quantitative indicators

Ecosystem approach is the key for SDGs localization!

SDG-6.17

- Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ila River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

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SDG-5

- The mode of operation of the hydroelectric power plant, taking into account eco-requirements;

- Construction of a counter-regulator for eco-releases

- Development of renewable energy and EE

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SDGs-1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

Replacement of water-intensive agricultural crops;

Reduction of water losses (5 km3);

Development of fisheries and other areas of the green economy

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SDGs-6.11

- Reduction of water consumption in Almaty from 500 to 150 liters/person/day

- Reduction of pollution

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SDG-15

Maintaining a critical lake level of at least 341 m.- as a result of the fulfillment of all other goals!

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SDGs-3,6,9,12,13

Reduction of industrial emissions, Balkhashmys discharges;

The ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the village Ulken

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SDGs-1,3,13,15

Development of protected areas and ecotourism

Restoration of tugai forests;

Introduction of Bukhara deer, kulan, Turanian tiger

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Only the water basin approach can help to understand the interlinkages and set a goals for ecosystem protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation and provide a framework for holistic and inclusive governance

SDG-6.17

- Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ila River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

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SDG-5

- The mode of operation of the hydroelectric power plant, taking into account eco-requirements;

- Construction of a counter-regulator for eco-releases

- Development of renewable energy and EE

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SDGs-1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

Replacement of water-intensive agricultural crops;

Reduction of water losses (5 km3);

Development of fisheries and other areas of the green economy

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SDGs-6.11

- Reduction of water consumption in Almaty from 500 to 150 liters/person/day

- Reduction of pollution

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SDG-15

Maintaining a critical lake level of at least 341 m.- as a result of the fulfillment of all other goals!

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SDGs-3,6,9,12,13

Reduction of industrial emissions, Balkhashmys discharges;

The ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the village Ulken

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SDGs-1,3,13,15

Development of protected areas and ecotourism

Restoration of tugai forests;

Introduction of Bukhara deer, kulan, Turanian tiger

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Only the water basin approach can help to understand the interlinkages and set a goals for ecosystem protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation and provide a framework for holistic and inclusive governance

Integrated indicator of the sustainability of the basin ecosystem: “The lake level is at least 341 m - as a result of the execution the all goals and programs

in this basin

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SDG-6.17

- Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ila River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

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SDG-5

- The mode of operation of the hydroelectric power plant, taking into account eco-requirements;

- Construction of a counter-regulator for eco-releases

- Development of renewable energy and EE

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SDGs-1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

Replacement of water-intensive agricultural crops;

Reduction of water losses (5 km3);

Development of fisheries and other areas of the green economy

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SDGs-6.11

- Reduction of water consumption in Almaty from 500 to 150 liters/person/day

- Reduction of pollution

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SDG-15

Maintaining a critical lake level of at least 341 m.- as a result of the fulfillment of all other goals!

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SDGs-3,6,9,12,13

Reduction of industrial emissions, Balkhashmys discharges;

The ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the village Ulken

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SDGs-1,3,13,15

Development of protected areas and ecotourism

Restoration of tugai forests;

Introduction of Bukhara deer, kulan, Turanian tiger

​

​

Only the water basin approach can help to understand the interlinkages and set a goals for ecosystem protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation and provide a framework for holistic and inclusive governance

- Replacement of water-intensive crops and products (water saving – 3-4 km3)

Reduction of water losses (up to 5 km3/year)

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SDG-6.17

- Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ila River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

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SDG-5

- The mode of operation of the hydroelectric power plant, taking into account eco-requirements;

- Construction of a counter-regulator for eco-releases

- Development of renewable energy and EE

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SDGs-1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

Replacement of water-intensive agricultural crops;

Reduction of water losses (5 km3);

Development of fisheries and other areas of the green economy

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SDGs-6.11

- Reduction of water consumption in Almaty from 500 to 150 liters/person/day

- Reduction of pollution

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SDG-15

Maintaining a critical lake level of at least 341 m.- as a result of the fulfillment of all other goals!

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SDGs-3,6,9,12,13

Reduction of industrial emissions, Balkhashmys discharges;

The ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the village Ulken

​

SDGs-1,3,13,15

Development of protected areas and ecotourism

Restoration of tugai forests;

Introduction of Bukhara deer, kulan, Turanian tiger

​

​

Only the water basin approach can help to understand the interlinkages and set a goals for ecosystem protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation and provide a framework for holistic and inclusive governance

Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ile River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

SDG-6.17

- Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ila River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

​

SDG-5

- The mode of operation of the hydroelectric power plant, taking into account eco-requirements;

- Construction of a counter-regulator for eco-releases

- Development of renewable energy and EE

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SDGs-1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

Replacement of water-intensive agricultural crops;

Reduction of water losses (5 km3);

Development of fisheries and other areas of the green economy

​

SDGs-6.11

- Reduction of water consumption in Almaty from 500 to 150 liters/person/day

- Reduction of pollution

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SDG-15

Maintaining a critical lake level of at least 341 m.- as a result of the fulfillment of all other goals!

​

SDGs-3,6,9,12,13

Reduction of industrial emissions, Balkhashmys discharges;

The ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the village Ulken

​

SDGs-1,3,13,15

Development of protected areas and ecotourism

Restoration of tugai forests;

Introduction of Bukhara deer, kulan, Turanian tiger

​

​

Only the water basin approach can help to understand the interlinkages and set a goals for ecosystem protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation and provide a framework for holistic and inclusive governance

Restoration of the Turanian tiger, Bukhara deer, wild boars, kulan, tugai forests (and the river regimes necessary for this!)

SDG-6.17

- Agreement with the People's Republic of China on the transboundary flow of the Ila River at least 12 km3/year, with details on seasons and water quality

​

SDG-5

- The mode of operation of the hydroelectric power plant, taking into account eco-requirements;

- Construction of a counter-regulator for eco-releases

- Development of renewable energy and EE

​

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SDGs-1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

Replacement of water-intensive agricultural crops;

Reduction of water losses (5 km3);

Development of fisheries and other areas of the green economy

​

SDGs-6.11

- Reduction of water consumption in Almaty from 500 to 150 liters/person/day

- Reduction of pollution

​

SDG-15

Maintaining a critical lake level of at least 341 m.- as a result of the fulfillment of all other goals!

​

SDGs-3,6,9,12,13

Reduction of industrial emissions, Balkhashmys discharges;

The ban on the construction of nuclear power plants in the village Ulken

​

SDGs-1,3,13,15

Development of protected areas and ecotourism

Restoration of tugai forests;

Introduction of Bukhara deer, kulan, Turanian tiger

​

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Only the water basin approach can help to understand the interlinkages and set a goals for ecosystem protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation and provide a framework for holistic and inclusive governance

Basin management will also show (what the “Green Economy” cannot show): HOW much it is necessary to introduce renewable energy sources, save water and energy, reduce emissions and discharges, which industries and infrastructure should be replaced or created. Even the issues of training of new specialists and research: what, where, how many and when specialists are needed, and which scientific research, etc.

Without a basin approach, it is impossible to preserve aquatic ecosystems, the basis of Kazakhstan's water

supply, and it is impossible even to "see" opportunities that go beyond the boundaries and interests of regions and sectoral programs!

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The first key precondition for changes and reforms:

is the transition to basin (ecosystem) management - integrated and indivisible management facilities

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To implement SDGs

we need to change the current governance system

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From sectorial and natural resources management to ecosystem management

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To implement SDGs

we need to change the current governance system

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From sectorial and natural resources management to ecosystem management

and public participation!

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To implement SDGs

we need to change the current governance system

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From sectorial and natural resources management to ecosystem management

and public participation!

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By creation of the Basin Social Corporation

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Basin Social Corporation may cover the gaps and weaknesses of the current governance system

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• Fill the niche between the government, civil society and businesses

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• Provide interests for businesses, SMEs, water users, people, women and youth

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• Integrate all actions and efforts based on SDGs for long-term development

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• Resolve inter- sectoral and cross-border potential conflicts

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• Create any necessary structures, financial and other effective mechanisms for investments and technologies

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• Not exclude, but supplement a state and departmental programs, control and monitoring

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The second key precondition for the conservation of this Lake ecosystem is

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• Overcoming the "alienation" of the public and business - involving them in the management

In order to overcome alienation, failures of the market economy and fragmented management, to transfer the conflicts nto interested cooperation, it is proposed to create a new model of management in the form of a Basin Social Corporation

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The main difference from industrial and financial corporations is that its activities are aimed at integrating social, environmental and commercial effects.

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At the same time, long-term environmental and social goals are a priority in the basin management, and management mechanisms stimulate the development of green sectors of the economy and restrain the desire for profit at any cost - at the expense of destroying the natural potential

Basin Social Corporation as an open joint-stock company with the participation of the population, the state, business and all nature users as owners-shareholders:

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• Overcomes alienation and changes the behavior of the population and businesses and engages them in the development of the basin program on the basis with rights and responsibility for the future development of the territory

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• Creates a focus on long-term goals and public benefits, including health and education-not just profit

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• Eliminates social conflicts and unites the actions of the state, business and civil society

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• Effective in the development of green technologies and management of the basin infrastructure

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• Solves transboundary conflicts with effective tools: on the basis of joint management, taking into account the common goals and interests of all parties

1. Water, like no other resource in Central Asia and other regions, clearly demonstrates that its shortage can reverse economic development and all previous social and economic achievements!��2. The transition to the basin management model can prevent the growing social, environmental and climatic risks and

create the basis for new water approach, for the economic development, environmental sustainability and social inclusivity

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Thank you for your attention!

bulat.yessekin@gmail.com, +7 7017349393�

Water and Climate Change platforms in Central Asia

https://groups.google.com/g/cawatercouncil/

https://groups.google.com/g/climate-change-in-kazakhstan