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Workplan�Template 2

Overall process

Issue 1: Paris agreement accommodations to climate change

Root cause analysis
Implication and result
Paris agreement goals

Issue 2: Paris agreement Challenge for Governments

Financial mobilization
Support of low incomes countries
Consistency on internal scale

Issue 2: Government's practices between assets and weaknesses

Assets of developed countries
weaknesses of Developing countries
Recommendations

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Issue tree

First 4 slides

Draft presentation

Final presentation

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Executive Summary

PARIS AGREEMENT ACCOMMODATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

The physical impacts of climate change are repercussing in the socio-economic sector :

Physical impacts

Increasing global emission and 19% rising sea level difference exhibit the strong evidence of climate change manifestation
From 1970 – 2019 land and ocean temperature index has increased 7.4% every year with multidimensional impact to human life

Socio-economic impacts

Moreover, climate change could be translated into long-term economic impact hampering entire world’s GDP by 2050 up to 4.7% in total GDP loss
The Paris agreement on climate change then comes to regulate human causes :
Paris Agreement will be able to accommodate the climate action with align goals and proper targeting

PARIS AGREEMENT CHALLENGES FOR GOVERNMENTS

Despite the commitment of governments to the Paris Agreement, 45% of the total funding is still allocated to non-climate areas
There is no coherence between the priority sectors identified in developing countries’ NDCs and deployments of development finance
Since development finance is not climate action aligned, governments may need to mobilize their own funds

GOVERNMENT'S PRACTICES TO CATCH UP WITH PARIS AGREEMENT

Assets, Weaknesses and Recommendations

European governments have built a low carbon stimulus program by mobilizing between 75 and 150 billion dollars to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030
While overall climate finance is mainly oriented towards energy, 37% is committed in low-income countries
Recommendations : International and national scale solution should be implemented throughout multiple corridor to achieved Paris Agreement goals with robust implementation enabler.

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Paris agreement accommodation to climate change : Physical and socio economic impacts , Paris Agreement goals

CONTENT

Paris agreement challenges for governments: Financial mobilization, Support of low incomes countries, Consistency on internal scale

Government's practices to catch up with the Paris Agreement : Assets, Weaknesses and recommendations

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Increasing global emission and 19% rising sea level difference exhibit the strong evidence of climate change manifestation

Source: NASA 2020

Over the past centuries human activities has driven the emission delivery.
Over the past century the CO₂ concentration on atmosphere has increased by 47% above pre-industrial level.
This event breaks the 20.000 year of historical natural growth of CO₂ emission

Global rising sea level occurs due to 2 main factors related to global warming:

Added from melting ice sheers and glacier

Expansion of sea water as it warms

19% CAGR

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From 1970 – 2019 land and ocean temperature index has increased 7.4% every year with multidimensional impact to human life (1/2)

Source: NASA 2020

Global Impact of Rising Temperature Index

Long Term Impact

Short Term Impact

Increasing the weather change volatility in global scale

Threating the available resources with 70 – 200 million exposure in Africa alone

Species loss and rising agriculture crop productivity in global scale

Increasing risk of heat related illness and lung related illness driven by pollution

Aggregate global wide economic opportunity lost

Recent rising land and ocean temperature gives the strong evidence of climate change while showing significant impact for both short-term and long-term in multi dimensional aspect of human life

7.4% CAGR¹

¹CAGR calculated from 1970 - 2019

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Moreover, climate change could be translated into long-term economic impact hampering entire world’s GDP by 2050 up to 4.7% in total GDP loss (2/2)

Source: The Economist 2019

1.1%

3.8%

4.7%

3.7%

1.7%

3.0%

2.6%

The Average GDP loss of world’s region impacted by climate change

South America

North

America

Western

Europe

Eastern

Europe

Middle

East

Africa

Asia Pacific

Africa, South America and Middle East shows the top 3 highest impact for average GDP loss impacted by climate change in 2050

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The Climate change yields direct consequences on food and energy generation of the low latitude regions with subsequent decay of GDP

Climate change – weather shocks and livelihoods in agriculture with the impact on global supply chain and energy availability of low GDP countries

Energy generation that requires water either directly, as in hydroelectric power, or indirectly, as in steam turbines used in coal-fired power plants or in cooling towers used in nuclear power plants, may become more difficult in regions with reduced water supplies.
Rising heat-related mortality, such as that observed in response to the 2003 European heat wave, might occur in many regions, especially in impoverished areas where air-conditioning is not generally available.
The economic infrastructure of most countries is predicted to be severely strained by global warming and climate change. Poor countries and communities with limited adaptive capacities are likely to be disproportionately affected.

Source: Food and Agricultural Organizations, UN

Key Prospects

Agro-Socio impacts of temperature rise

Subsequent market and energy offsets

Food production and supply at global and local levels:

– benefits in temperate regions may offset losses in tropical areas (but global availability of food does not necessarily imply satisfaction of each of the food security pillars locally);

– estimations for these regions suggest that yield losses for maize, wheat and rice range between 5 and 20 percent, should local temperatures increase by 3 °C; yield levels may halve if temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C.

The livelihoods of groups involved directly or indirectly with agricultural and fisheries production and trade are also threatened:

– upward price adjustments may benefit net producers of food that are integrated into markets but net consumers in urban or rural areas that are not somehow involved in agriculture and fisheries will be hurt.

At current rates of warming, a 10–40 percent increase in average surface runoff and water availability has been projected in higher latitudes and in certain wet regions in the tropics by the middle of the 21st century, while decreases of similar magnitude are expected in other parts of the tropics and in the dry regions in the subtropics

Socio economic impact of climate change

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Total greenhouse gas emissions has varied over 32 years but

increased by 95 % from 1980 to 2012.

Source :

World Bank Data 1980-2012
Environmental Protection Agency USA

Total greenhouse gas emissions, kt of CO2 equivalent (in millions)

COMMENTS

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have significantly increased since 1900. Since 1970, CO₂ emissions have increased by about 90%, with emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributing about 78% of the total greenhouse gas emissions increase from 1970 to 2011
The EU’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, under its wider 2030 climate and energy framework. All key EU legislation for implementing this target was adopted by the end of 2018

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Paris Agreement will be able to accommodate the climate action with align goals and proper targeting

Source: UNFCC 2018, WRI 2018

Paris agreement will be able to cover major global contributor of emission (excluding United States)
Each state is required conduct initiatives, cooperation and systematic report submission to UNFCC with national determined contribution (NDC)

Base target: 2^oC temperature target with 1000 GtCO₂ (2011 – 2100)

Optimistic target: 1.5^oC temperature target with 400 GtCO₂ (2011 – 2100)

Temperature Goals

Climate Neutrality

NDC

Voluntary Cooperation

Adaptation

Transparency

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Paris agreement accommodation to climate change : Physical and socio economic impacts , Paris Agreement goals

CONTENT

Paris agreement challenges for governments: Financial mobilization, Support of low incomes countries, Consistency on internal scale

Government's practices to catch up with the Paris Agreement : Assets, Weaknesses and recommendations

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Targeted milestones have been achieved in past 3 decades with clear distinction of responsibilities of signatory states

1992

1997

2009

2015

2025

Key milestones for environmental protection

1992 Rio Earth Summit

Responsibility of developed countries

Issue of transparency of support

Mobilization of Funds

Indexing the progress

Paris Agreement stipulates that developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations under the Convention.

Developed country Parties shall biennially communicate indicative quantitative and, including, as available, projected levels of public financial resources to be provided to developing country parties.

Developed country Parties shall provide transparent and consistent information on support for developing country Parties provided and mobilized through public interventions biennially.

Source: UNFCCC

Adopt environmental agreements, including the UNFCCC

2007 Bali Action Plan

Kyoto Protocol at COP3

Adopt a series of market-based, mechanisms

COP15 in Copenhagen

Withdrawal of US from the agreement in 2017

COP21 in Paris and signed Paris Agreement

A new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion per year

“We welcome the historic agreement that has just been reached in Paris. The world has come together to forge a deal that finally reflects the aspiration, and the seriousness, to preserve our planet for future generations. We called for strong ambition, for remarkable partnerships, for mobilization of finance, and for implementation of national climate plans. Paris delivered. Now the job becomes our shared responsibility.” – WORLD BANK GROUP PRESIDENT JIM YONG KIM

Global stock tale to take place in 2023

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Even if 96% of the States of UN system have ratified the Paris Agreement , the retraction of the USA calls into question its achievements

Source: UN, UNFCCC

100%

96 %

98 %

Overview of the number of States that have ratified the Paris Agreement

Comments

The ratification of the agreement by China and the United States (38% of global GHG’s emissions) have boosted the global mobilization of States
On 4th November 2019, the Government of the United States of America notified the Secretary-General of its decision to withdraw from the Agreement

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As one of the majority source of emission, US withdraw in Paris Agreement will hurt the long-term goals and initiatives

Source: UNFCC 2018, WRI 2018

Background

As stated by US President Donald Trump (2017), the existing terms were unfair and unrealistic. It was a potential harm to the economy and put the country at a disadvantaged position.

Reaction

Termination of the US $3bn funding (by Obama) for Paris agreement will significantly impact the long-term financing ability.
US could now increase its emissions space, while other countries were bound to reduce below 2 degree celcius.
reduce carbon price for US, while increasing for other countries.
China and European Union will take the limelight and boost international reputation, a soft-power towards climate change, overtaking US.

The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity and Peabody Energy, the largest listed coal producer in the United States, applauded the decision, claiming the result will be lower energy prices and greater reliability of supply

Impact

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Despite the commitment of governments to the Paris Agreement, 45% of the total funding is still allocated to non-climate areas

Source : OECD

Climate finance $100 billion/year by 2020
Other financial flows not systematically accounted for

CURRENT

Climate finance paradigm

TARGET

Paris alignment paradigm

Climate finance $100 billion/year by 2020
Other financial flows are aligned with the Paris mitigation & adaptation goals

Counting & Reporting

Count & Report

“The need to shift from a climate finance paradigm to a Paris alignment paradigm means that climate considerations should be integrated across activities and beyond these priority areas to advance the transition to low-emissions, climate-resilient pathways. In the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, for example, 40% of development finance was not climate-related. Other areas with increasing relevance for achieving low-emissions, climate-resilient development pathways, most notably the sectors of banking and financial services and health, receive especially low levels of climate-related development finance.”, OECD Library, Aligning Development Co-Operation and Climate Action.

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There is no coherence between the priority sectors identified in developing countries’ NDCs and deployments of development finance

Source : OECD, German Development Institute

According to the German Development Institute, approximately 75% of developing countries specify the sectors related to Agriculture, biodiversity and ecosystems and forestry as priority sectors so to contribute to the climate action. The graph presents a regional breakdown of these sectors in developing countries’ NDC (National Determined Contribution).
However, the most funded areas do not always correspond to the priority sectors of developing countries’ NDCs.

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Since development finance is not climate action aligned, governments may need to mobilize their own funds

Source : Overseas Development Institute, World Bank

Financial policies and regulations

Fiscal policy levers

Public finance

Information instruments

Governments tools to shift and mobilise finance

(primarily influence behaviour through force of law)

(primarily influence behaviour through price)

(primarily influence behaviour by shifting financial risks)

(primarily influence behaviour through awareness)

Lending requirements
Accounting systems
Mandates and supervisory authorities
Standards
Plans and strategies
Disclosure requirements

Taxes
Levies
Royalties
Price support or control
Public procurement
Budget support

Grants
Debt
Equity
Guarantees
Insurance

Certification and labelling
Transparency initiatives
Corporate strategies
Awareness campaigns
Statistical services
Scenario analysis and stress testing

Climate Finance at the World Bank Group	2011 – 15 Average (3-year rolling average)
Climate Operations (number per year)	182
Climate Operations (% per year)	25
Climate Commitments (US$ billion per year)	10.3
Climate Commitments (% per year)	21

World Bank Group Trends in Climate Finance, 2011-15

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Paris agreement accommodation to climate change : Physical and socio economic impacts , Paris Agreement goals

CONTENT

Paris agreement challenges for governments: Financial mobilization, Support of low incomes countries, Consistency on internal scale

Government's practices to catch up with the Paris Agreement : Assets, Weaknesses and recommendations

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On the 75 metrics gigatons of GHG production in 2016, 33% are due to industrial activities and 27% to agricultural activities and deforestation

Source: Mckinsey

Metrics gigatons of CO2 in 2016 by source (in %)

Total GHG’s (Metrics gigatons)

Share of total GHG’s emissions (in%)

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1.GVA: Gross value add

Source: OECD, Mckinsey

European governments have built a low carbon stimulus program by mobilizing between 75 and 150 billion dollars to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030 (1/2)

Program measures …

Goal: mobilizing 150 billions to reducing CO2 emission by 30%

Industry

Electricity

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1.GVA: Gross value add

Source: OECD, Mckinsey

European governments have built a low carbon stimulus program by mobilizing between 75 and 150 billion dollars to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030 (2/2)

Program measures …

Goal: mobilizing 150 billions to reducing CO2 emission by 30%

Transport

Buildings

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EU-27 expenditure on environmental protection increased from 2006 to 2019 by 34%

Source : Eurostat official website statistics

COMMENTS

National expenditure on environmental protection measures the resources used by resident units in a given period for protecting the natural environment. It is calculated as a sum of current expenditure on environmental protection (EP) activities and investments for EP activities, including net transfers to the rest of the world.
According to Eurostat’s estimates, from 2006 to 2019, EU-27 expenditure on environmental protection, measured by the NEEP aggregate, increased by 34 % following the overall trend of gross domestic product (GDP)
In 2019, EU-27 national expenditure on environmental protection amounted to EUR 269 billion , according to Eurostat’s estimates.
In 2009, the financial crisis appears to have hit the total investments in the economy much stronger than the environmental protection investments and same is observed in 2016

Key Environmental Protection and Economic indicators , EU 2006-2019,�(2006=100)

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While overall climate finance is mainly oriented towards energy, 37% is committed in low-income countries

Source: OECD, WORLDBANK

Mobilization and repartition of climate finance

Climate-related development finance by region and sector (in %)

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International and national scale solution should be implemented throughout multiple corridor to achieved Paris Agreement goals with robust implementation enabler

Source : Team analysis

Mobilization of the private sector at a global level with precision of their responsibilities and their contribution in the fight against climate change : reviewing of their market strategy, supporting climate actions
Association of the scientific world in the global effort with a view to putting science and technology to work obtaining exact data on GHG’s emission, on the real impacts of climate change, and beneficial climate solutions (Electric vehicles promotion, Smart building systems etc.…)
Coordination of UN, IMF and World Bank actions to help low Income countries : technological, technical and financial assistance

INTERNATIONAL SCALE

NATIONAL SCALE

Integration of climate risk into decision making to taking climate considerations into account when looking at capital allocation, development of products or services, and supply-chain management ;
Investment in adaptation: protecting people and assets, building resilience, reducing exposure, and ensuring that appropriate insurance and financing are in place, decarbonization at scale

Key Solutions

KEY

ENABLERS

NDC Commitment

Robust Enforcement

Sustainable Financing

Monitoring & Evaluation

Public Participation