7.5 COMFORT Synthesis paper

beyond tipping points- what did we learn from COMFORT

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Blenckner et al

Overall aim

• Natural & social dimension
• Broaden the scope = tipping points and change, plus rates
• => how can the knowledge of COMFORT be used => social, and relate to risk propeller => hazard, exposure, vulnerability
• Solution orientated

Structure of the manuscript

• 1. Introduction
• Ocean’s importance for climate, life and society
• Issues with gradual, abrupt and tipping and related concepts like regime shifts etc.
• Aim: integration of gradual change, extremes and tipping points and transformative ways for academia and community of practice
• 2. Risk of severe extremes, gradual and abrupt changes - quite crossings (resulting in a map with regional findings)
• 2.1 Climate-induced physical changes in the ocean (Gruber, Hauck, Frölicher, Henson, Heinze… ??)
• Explaining fig text on the major changes (gradual, abrupt, tipping) presented in the figure
• 3. Diverse responses for species and ecosystems (a map, Wakamatsu, Wp3-4 et al)
• Explaining fig text on the major changes (gradual, abrupt, tipping) presented in the figure
• 4. Future ways forward to avoid severe change, extremes and tipping points and severe impacts
• 4.1 Climate mitigation scenarios (Keller, Joos, Schwinger, Bopp, Rickels…)
• carbon removal and mitigation scenarios
• overshoot – hysteresis => Jörg examples
• economics and carbon trade (Rickels)
• 4.2 Governance of research initiatives to form research and society platforms (Hov, Martins, Broadgate, Roden, Holland….)
• coordination of marine obs in 4 D –linked to model uncertainty areas or where we have missing data
• all in one place obs + model (biophysical+ biology) with clear organization + mandate – may be with warnings
•  address both change and tipping points (integrate the research community)
• Climate-species management targets
• Target –policy setting scenarios?
• platform for academia + community of practice
• future visions (Psychologists for future, Lea Dohm)
• 5. Outlook

Suggestions for the Risk of severe extremes, gradual and abrupt changes - quite crossings chapter (Fig. 1)

IPCC AR6, WGII, Chap 3

With categories defined in the break-out session

IPCC, SROCC, Chap. 6

Heinze et al 2021

Observed-based rate of change (1950-2014), IPCC et al 2021

Suggestion for the diverse responses for species and ecosystems chapter (Fig. 2)

Suggestion for the quantification of change for the future (Fig. 3)

Fig. 3 ?

• Risk of tipping points
• POSSIBLE?

Kloenne et al 2023

Suggestions for the mitigation scenario chapter fig. (Fig. 4)

The results of ocean-based carbon-dioxide removal (CDR) approaches have a relatively small effect on atmospheric CO2 and temperature

Keller & Tran

COMFORT, D6.2

And /or a figure like this for the exceeding years when a certain target is crossed mitigation scenarios

4. Discussions towards solutions

4.1 Climate mitigation scenarios

• mitigation scenarios need to be more realistic, plus additional CDR are needed
• pronounced climate fluctuations in net zero emission scenarios that need to account for
• nationally Determined Contributions to GHG reductions need to be faster implemented and more ambitious to reduce the risks => economic perspective

4.2 Governance of research initiatives to interact with and serve society

• Coordination couple model development and application to a systematic development of the marine observation systems in 4-d , observation+model-based marine analysis, reanalysis and forecasting, linked to model uncertainty areas or where we have missing data => platform
• all in one place obs + model (biophysical+ biology) with clear organization + mandate – may be with warnings => next marine heatwave etc
• address both change and tipping points, obs, modellers (integrate the research communities) and inform public and managers (Climate – species management targets)
• target –policy setting scenarios? Like AERA approach
• Future visions

• Fig. 4b Synthesis fig bringing the different aspects together

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• Ocean change both gradual and abrupt and tipping points (with hysteresis)
• Local/regional ecosystem consequences => risk propellers
• Mitigation – CDR
• Platform for ocean data (obs-model)
• Platform for Community of Research – Community of Practice
• Psychological aspects?
• Policy

Next steps

• Prepare a publication draft until 31 May (SU responsible)
• Decide on figures and response person/team for driving that
• Iteration of text writings
• Submission before August
• Potential journals: Nature Climate Change, Nature communications, ONE Earth…..

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Thank you

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points). The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.

3. Risks for ecosystems => major results from WP 3 and WP 4

Fig. 2: Risks propellers from different case studies => survey = D4.4

Simpson et al. 2021