WINNING THE NARRATIVE ON SAFETY, ACCOUNTABILITY,
AND JUSTICE IN MICHIGAN:
Lessons and takeaways from polling,
public opinion research and recent elections
March 2024
2
MICHIGAN IS IN A GOOD PLACE WHEN IT COMES TO SAFETY, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND JUSTICE
3
BUT FEARS ABOUT CRIME–AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON ELECTIONS–ARE STILL VERY REAL
THE BIG TAKEAWAY FROM
MICHIGAN’S RESEARCH:
To protect momentum for justice reform
and counter tough-on-crime backsliding, Michiganders need to hear that their
elected leaders are “serious about safety.”
When asked who they would be most likely to vote for, Michiganders favored candidates who own a “serious about safety” message over a “tough-on-crime” one. In this head-to-head split test, the “serious” message outperformed a “tough” one for all voters–especially Independent, young, and working class voters.
“SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY” RESONATES WITH MICHIGANDERS–EVEN SURPRISING VOTER BLOCS
5
| OVERALL | IND | YOUNG | WHITE MEN | BLUE COLLAR |
GOP ATTACK | 48 | 53 | 43 | 62 | 48 |
DEM “ALSO TOUGH” | 47 | 39 | 52 | 33 | 45 |
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
| OVERALL | IND | YOUNG | WHITE MEN | BLUE COLLAR |
GOP ATTACK | 45 | 40 | 37 | 55 | 41 |
DEM “SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY” | 50 | 50 | 59 | 39 | 54 |
-14
+9
+10
+22
-29
-16
+5
-1
+13
-3
WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
While “tough-on-crime” attacks have
not dominated recent Michigan races,
a look at elections in other parts of the
country are a signal for what might be
coming in Michigan’s 2024 election cycle.
7
“TOUGH ON CRIME” CAN BE A POTENT ATTACK, BUT NOT IF COUNTERED BY “SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY”
FALL 2023 POLLING WITH GQR:
20-minute statewide poll of ~800 Michigan
likely voters to understand their views on
crime and how this issue impacts their vote.
(+/- 3.5% margin of error at 95% confidence interval)
9
10
LESSON # 1.
Concerns about crime do NOT equal
support for more “tough-on-crime” policies.
CRIME IS A PERENNIAL CONCERN FOR MICHIGANDERS
12
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
BLACK MICHIGANDERS IN PARTICULAR ARE WORRIED ABOUT CRIME IN THEIR OWN NEIGHBORHOODS
13
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
YET CONCERNS ABOUT CRIME DO NOT TRANSLATE
TO SUPPORT FOR “TOUGH-ON-CRIME” POLICIES
14
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY: Fully fund things to create safe communities and improve people’s quality of life, like good schools, a living wage, affordable housing, and do more to prevent crime by increasing treatment for mental health and drug addiction and getting illegal guns off the street.
TOUGH ON CRIME: Doing more to get tough on crime, like having tougher sentences for people convicted of violent crimes, maintaining strong bail laws to keep potentially dangerous people in jail, and providing police more support and resources.
THAT REMAINS TRUE EVEN AMONG INDEPENDENT, WORKING CLASS, AND RURAL MICHIGANDERS
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Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY
TOUGH ON CRIME
LESSON # 2.
Leaning into safety early and often builds
upon existing advantages that both parties
have with Michigan voters.
UNLIKE VOTERS IN OTHER STATES, MICHIGANDERS SAY THEY HEAR FROM BOTH PARTIES EQUALLY ON CRIME
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Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
THE GOP HAS A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE ON TRUST, LARGELY DRIVEN BY WHITE AND RURAL VOTERS
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Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
| Total Dem – Total Rep |
White | 40 – 55 |
Black | 70 – 13 |
White men | 31 – 62 |
White women | 48 – 48 |
Black men | 70 – 12 |
Black women | 70 – 14 |
Blue Collar/Industrial | 44 – 47 |
Upwardly Mobile | 50 – 44 |
Detroit/Dearborn | 67 – 19 |
Rural/Rest of state | 33 – 60 |
LESSON # 3.
Michiganders want prevention and treatment solutions over more “tough on crime.”
TREATMENT AND PREVENTION TOPS THE LIST OF FAVORED POLICY SOLUTIONS TO DECREASE CRIME
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Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
What extent, if it all, do you believe the following proposals will decrease crime in Michigan?
EVEN ON THORNY TOPICS LIKE POLICING, A MESSAGE OF SUPPORT AND ACCOUNTABILITY WINS
21
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
LESSON # 4.
Accountability matters, but Michiganders
want more than a punishment-only approach.
WHEN ASKED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN A SAFETY VERSUS TOUGH APPROACH ON ACCOUNTABILITY, SAFETY WINS
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Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
SAFETY & JUSTICE: Some say crime is out of control and, to make communities safe, people who break the law must be held accountable. This means seeing the harm they've done, accepting the consequences, learning from mistakes, and changing their behavior. Harsh punishment and long sentences alone lead to more violence. We need to provide people with programs that work to turn their lives around and prevent future crime.
DO THE CRIME, DO THE TIME: Others say crime is out of control, and we need to make sure that people who break the law are held accountable by enforcing strict punishments. If you do the crime, you should do the time, and that means serving the full sentence. Offenders shouldn't be able to get out of jail or prison early simply because they complete programs or have a good track record behind bars.
LESSON # 5.
Even when facing attacks, leaning
in with a “serious about safety” message
beats “I too am tough on crime.”
ONE GOP ATTACK, TWO DIFFERENT DEM RESPONSES
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GOP SOFT-ON-CRIME ATTACK:
Republicans are tackling crime and protecting law-abiding Michiganders. They will stop the revolving door for criminals, make sure criminals serve their full sentence and force prosecutors to prosecute all cases, big and small. Republicans will "back the Blue" by increasing police funding and putting more officers on the streets. Unlike Democrats, who support "soft on crime" policies like eliminating cash bail and releasing violent criminals from prison early, Republicans will restore law and order to stop crime.
DEMOCRAT “I TOO AM TOUGH ON CRIME” RESPONSE:
Democrats will restore law and order to Michigan's communities. Addressing crime means getting illegal guns off the street, improving police response times and solving serious crime. Democrats will add more funding for police, crack down on violent criminals, and go after the worst offenders by imposing stricter sentences. Unlike Republicans, who talk a big game but oppose common-sense gun safety laws, Democrats know what works to be both tough and smart on crime.
DEMOCRAT “I AM SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY” RESPONSE:
Democrats will make Michigan's communities safer, preventing crime before it happens by investing in schools, housing, and mental health and addiction programs. Addressing violent crime means getting illegal guns off the street, improving police response times and solving serious crime. Democrats support police who put their lives on the line but also hold them accountable for abuse. Unlike Republicans, who oppose programs that prevent crime and common-sense gun laws, Democrats have solutions that work to make every neighborhood safe.
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
Now, I am going to read you statements that Democrats and Republicans are making about addressing crime and public safety in Michigan. Which of the following statements do you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right?
EVEN IN RESPONSE TO A “SOFT-ON-CRIME” ATTACK, MICHIGANDERS FAVOR “SERIOUS” OVER “TOUGH”
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| OVERALL | IND | YOUNG | WHITE MEN | BLUE COLLAR |
GOP ATTACK | 48 | 51 | 43 | 63 | 45 |
DEM “ALSO TOUGH” | 47 | 42 | 53 | 33 | 49 |
Source: GQR October 2023 MIchigan survey commissioned by Vera Action
| OVERALL | IND | YOUNG | WHITE MEN | BLUE COLLAR |
GOP ATTACK | 47 | 46 | 40 | 57 | 46 |
DEM “SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY” | 48 | 47 | 58 | 39 | 50 |
-9
+10
+1
+18
-30
-18
+1
-1
+4
+4
A LESSON FROM VIRGINIA:
A bellwether for the 2024 battlegrounds,
crime dominated VA’s 2023 state-level
races with $25 million spent in the state during
the election cycle. Despite hearing virtually
nonstop ‘tough-on-crime’ rhetoric, VA voters
still favor a ‘serious about safety’ approach.
#1
Source: HIT Strategies post-election December 2023 Virginia survey commissioned by Vera Action
#2
#3
Republican Candidate
Juan Pablo Segura
Mock ad for a Democratic candidate
Democratic Candidate
Nadarius Clark
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VIRGINIA 2023 AND CLOSE TO $25M ON CRIME ADS: TESTING TWO “TOUGH” ADS, ONE “SAFETY” AD
GOP candidate touting more funding for police and ‘tough on crime’ approach
Dem candidate touting support for police, police endorsements, and gun control measures
Dem candidate touting comprehensive approach and being ‘serious about safety’
Which ad is most aligned with your views?
“SERIOUS ABOUT SAFETY” BEATS “TOUGH ON CRIME”–WINS BLACK VOTERS, HOLDS INDEPENDENTS
Source: HIT Strategies post-election December 2023 Virginia survey commissioned by Vera Action
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AD # 2: DEM TOUGH
AD # 3: DEM SAFETY
AD # 1:
GOP TOUGH
| AD # 1 | AD # 2 | AD # 3 |
OVERALL | 23% | 26% | 34% |
BLACK VOTERS | 6% | 36% | 47% |
LATINO VOTERS | 17% | 37% | 37% |
WHITE VOTERS | 27% | 23% | 31% |
GEN Z VOTERS | 13% | 34% | 37% |
BOOMERS | 25% | 23% | 27% |
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS | 7% | 33% | 54% |
REPUBLICAN VOTERS | 40% | 18% | 15% |
INDEPENDENT VOTERS | 21% | 28% | 29% |
LESSONS FROM THE RESEARCH–OWNING SAFETY, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND JUSTICE
Real solutions that work to prevent
crime, respond to crisis, and stop violence.
Personal responsibility is about repair and
changing behavior, not just punishment.
A system that works for all by relying less
on incarceration and more on the things
proven to help communities thrive.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Insha Rahman, Director
irahman@veraaction.org
Brian Tashman, Deputy Director
btashman@veraaction.org