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Wargaming�Why, What, How

Matt Caffrey

Connections 2016

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Overview

  • Why should I care about wargaming
  • What are (and are not) Wargames
  • How to get the greatest value from Wargaming

Connections 2016

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Connections 2016

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Why should I care about wargaming

  • First order reason, Secretary of Defiance says to care
  • Second order reason, Deputy Secretary of Defiance has identified the need for a 3rd offset strategy
  • Basic reason, wargames provide an edge in war

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Why should I care about wargaming

  • What can provide an edge in war?
    • Numbers, training , weapons, geography, leadership – wargaming
  • Victory goes to the side with the greatest net advantage
  • Has wargaming provided an edge? Yes
    • Prussia 1870’s – 1880’s
    • Germany 1940’s (Same time USN-IJN edges largely canceled)
    • China 1950
    • North Vietnam 1960’s – 1970’s
    • Iraq 1980’s
    • US/Coalition 1990

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What are (and are not) Wargames

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Why Care About What is a Wargame?

  • With current emphasis non-wargames passing for wargames
  • Wargames often work best as part of a “cycle of research,” so knowing when in an effort to use and not to use wargaming important
  • Too often wargames define wargaming as the type of wargaming they do

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Definitions

Reality

Simulation

Model

Sim Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multisided

Armed Conflict

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Definitions

Wargame: an armed conflict simulation game.

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Wargame: A simulation, by whatever means, of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces using rules, data, and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed real life situation.

DOD Dictionary of Military Terms

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Venn Diagrams

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Teams

White

Red

Blue

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The Wargame Process

Initial State

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The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

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The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

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The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

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The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

End State

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The Wargame Process

End State

Initial State

End State Move 1 Initial State Move 2

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End State Move 2 Initial State Move 3

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Wargame Applications�

Remember ACER

  • Anticipate
  • Communicate
  • Educate (and train)
  • Recreate

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Anticipate

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Communicate

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Educate and Train�

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Strategic

Operational

Tactical

Develop Strategists

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War College

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Staff College

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Branch Schools

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Professional Dev

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Educate and Train�

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Recreate

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Wargame Methods

Each has advantages and disadvantages.

  • Live and virtual types tend to work best for tactical.
  • Some strategic wargames can only be constructive.
  • A few wargames include all three types.

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Miniatures

(Terrain Table)

Print

(Map & Chart Ex)

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Computer

Methods of Constructive Wargame

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Levels of Computerization

How Computerized are computerized wargames?

It depends:

Info &

Adjudication

Info, Adjudication,

Red & Blue Subordinates

Info, Adjudication,

& Red

Info Only

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Breath of Wargaming

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Strategic

Immediate

Far Future

Developmental

Decision

Support

Tactical

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Breath of Wargaming

Granularity

Depth

Scope

Engagements/hours

Economics

Strike/Seconds

Battles/Days

Campaigns/Months

Wars/Years

Human Factors

Diplomacy

Infrastructure

Logistics

Attrition

Individual (Aircraft, ships, tanks)

Sub-Systems

Type Units

Components

Joint Forces

Sub-Components

Service Forces

Systems

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How to get the greatest value from Wargaming

  • Tactically, how to wargame better
  • Operational, when to (and not to) wargame
  • Strategic, toward a wargame enabled path to innovation

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Tactically, How To Wargame Better

  • Know Your Options
  • Internal vs External
  • Design/Develop To Fit Your Objectives
    • Pick the right style and balance
    • Customize Red Blue and Red Employment
  • “I can do this on duty?!?”

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But Know Your Bricks

  • Defense
    • OSD CAPE Wargame Repository
    • Service, wargame center sites
  • Commercial
    • Strategy Page
    • Grignard
  • Both
    • Connections-Wargaming.com

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Internal vs External

When to Use Internal Wargames?

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  • Internal wargame better fit when:
    • Only an initial idea of military utility desired
    • Concept “not ready for prime time”
    • No external game will meet needs:
      • External wargame will not explore all techs we need examined.
      • External wargame is taking place at the time after we need insights.
  • Either “fits,” but internal wargame would be cheaper, easier

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When to Use External Wargames?

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  • External wargame better fit when:
    • A goal is to educate operators, external leaders in tech impact.
      • i.e., Title 10 wargames expose AFRL concepts to “up and coming 2-stars.”
    • A goal is to educate AFRL with insights beyond what we can recruit.
  • Either “fits,” but external wargame would be cheaper, easier

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Pick The Right Style And Balance

Granularity

Depth

Scope

Engagements/hours

Economics

Strike/Seconds

Battles/Days

Campaigns/Months

Wars/Years

Human Factors

Diplomacy

Infrastructure

Logistics

Attrition

Individual (Aircraft, ships, tanks)

Sub-Systems

Type Units

Components

Joint Forces

Sub-Components

Service Forces

Systems

Design

Parameter

Tradeoffs

For a set amount of time the sum of Scope, Depth and Granularity will remain constant.

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Tailoring Red Play�“The Caffrey Triangle”

Win

Stimulate

Game Objectives

Follow

Doctrine

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Tailoring Red Play

Win

Stimulate

Game Objectives

Follow

Doctrine

Educate Strategists

Develop O-Plans

Train Command Posts

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Tailoring Red Play

Win

Stimulate

Game Objectives

Follow

Doctrine

Educate Strategists

Develop O-Plans

Train Command Posts

Title 10 Wargames

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“I can do this on duty”

  • Find the wargamers already assigned to your unit

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Operational, When To (And Not To) Wargame

  • Know When NOT To Wargame
  • Intergrade Wargaming Into Larger Effort

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Think Like an Architect…

Remember ACE

  • Anticipate
  • Communicate
  • Educate (and train)

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Know When NOT To Wargame

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When should we Use (or NOT Use) Wargames?

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Wargaming is a good option when:

  • Forecasting relative military impact/utility given established performance parameters
  • Communicating technology impact to nontechnical audience
  • Allowing scientists and engineers to apply basic information on military operations – creating virtual veterans, virtual re-bluing

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Wargaming is NOT the best choice when:

  • Determining technological feasibility, cost, schedule
    • During Wargame Prep; Results used in determination
  • Communicating technical information
  • Teaching very basic information about military operations

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Strategic, �Toward A Wargame Enabled Path To Innovation

  • The Strategy/Innovation Cycle
    • (a.k.a. The Caffrey Loop)
  • Tailoring Wargames within concept development
  • The Path To Innovation
  • Optimizing wargaming for each part of the path

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The Innovation Cycle� �a.k.a. The Caffrey Loop

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

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The Historical Lag in CONOPS & Tactics

Telemobiloskop – 1904

Mitrailleuse – 1850’s

Mobile Observation Platform 1914

Trench Crosser 1916

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The Innovation Cycle� �a.k.a. The Caffrey Loop

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Wargame