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The gradually before the suddenly

The impact of climate change on food and farming now

2 December 2024

Informed debate on �energy and climate change

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Climate change and food security

”The biggest medium to long term risk to the UK’s domestic production comes from climate change and other environmental pressures like soil degradation, water quality and biodiversity”

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021

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Medium to long term?

Drought in 2022…

  • Potato harvest hit and yields down 18%
  • Onion yields down 15%

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…floods in 2023 & 2024…

  • Wheat harvest down 21%
  • Field vegetables & potatoes up in price
  • Storm rain 20% heavier, total rain 4x more likely

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…inflation at 20%

  • Extreme weather & fossil fuels added £605 to household food bills

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Home…and away

Climate vulnerable food

  • Mediterranean = 64% of our oranges, 83% of our olive oil, 56% of our peppers…
  • 93% of cauliflowers & broccoli and 59% of strawberry imports
  • 16% of our imports come from countries with low climate readiness
  • Includes half the rice, sugar, tea, coffee, cocoa, bananas and soy
  • Half of all imports cannot be grown in the UK

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  1. Climate vulnerable country index is a Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative project - https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/

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Greener farming and resilience

Roots [sic] to resilience?

  • Benefits of cover crops for soil function
  • SFI in England funding widespread uptake of resilience measures
  • Benefits not yet well quantified

The big stuff

  • Natural flood management
  • Can protect communities and infrastructure
  • Trade offs with farmland?

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  1. Wall chart taken from Cotswold Seeds - https://cotswoldseeds.com/downloads/seeds%20wallchart%20graphic%20handout%20updated%202024%20qr%20[outlined][f]%20web.pdf

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Trees, peat and wind

Agricultural emissions

  • No reduction since 2008
  • By late 2030s, could be biggest emitter in the UK

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Big three

  • Methane, peat and trees will drive GHG reductions and removals
  • Upcoming advice from the CCC and Defra’s land use framework

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What next?

2 December 2024

Informed debate on �energy and climate change