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Modeling tephra fallout using Tephra2 on VICTOR

Tephra

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TEPHRA FALLOUT

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YOUR OBJECTIVES:

    • Identify the key characteristics and hazards of tephra fallout from volcanic eruptions.
    • Explain and apply how the Tephra2 model predicts the distribution and accumulation of tephra.
    • Analyze Tephra2 simulation outputs to assess roof collapse risks in towns near South Sister Rim volcanoes.

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WHAT IS TEPHRA FALLOUT?

TEPHRA HAZARDS

HISTORICAL CASE

EXAMPLE

OUR STUDY AREA

INTRO TO TEPHRA2

MODELING ON VICTOR

LESSON OVERVIEW:

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What is tephra and how does it differ from other volcanic hazards?

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What is a historical example of significant tephra fallout?

What are the hazards associated with tephra?

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What factors impact tephra distribution?

RECALL OR REVIEW: WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT TEPHRA?

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    • “The term tephra defines all pieces of all fragments of rock ejected into the air by an erupting volcano.” -USGS

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    • The biggest risk to people and infrastructure is the smaller ash sized particles that are carried by wind.

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Tephra Fallout as a Volcanic Hazard:

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Affects on human health have a range from skin, eye, and respiratory irritation to more serious health complications for certain populations.

TEPHRA FALLOUT AS A VOLCANIC HAZARD: HUMAN HEALTH

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    • Ash particles can disrupt infrastructure in a broad variety of ways. From making ground travel difficult, to pulling down power lines.
    • It is important to consider the system of infrastructure in preparedness mitigation to understand how one disruption affects other areas.

Tephra Fallout as a Volcanic Hazard: Infrastructure

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(Wilson et al. 2011)

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HISTORICAL EXAMPLE: 1980 ERUPTION OF MT. ST. HELEN

    • Ash covered homes, farms, and roads up to 4 inches deep.
    • Particles penetrated buildings, affecting businesses and services.
    • Over 500 million tons of ash fell across Washington, Idaho, and Montana.
    • Many small communities became isolated, and 10,000+ people were stranded due to poor visibility and ash-damaged vehicles.
    • Ash continued to disrupt daily life for months as winds and human activity resuspended ash particles.

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OUR STUDY AREA

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Redmond

Bend

Sunrise

South Sister

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TEPHRA2:

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    • Uses the advection-diffusion equation to predict tephra accumulation.
    • Forecasts the spread of volcanic material based on eruptive conditions.
    • Hazard models combine different theories to assess risk and support mitigation planning.
    • Output data helps define hazard zones and guide building recommendations.

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MODELING TEPHRA FALLOUT

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WE WILL ANALYZE: MASS ERUPTED

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For each step up the eruption column (i), from the vent to the maximum column height (H), each grain size (j) is considered:

TEPHRA2:

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A cloud-based cyberinfrastructure platform for the use of volcano scientists.

Volcanology Infrastructure for Computational Tools and Resources, or VICTOR.

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VICTOR

    • VICTOR is meant to be a platform for every step of the computational process.
    • A cloud-based volcanic hazard modeling tool.
    • Provides researchers and students with access to advanced computational models.
    • Integrates with LaharZ for scenario-based hazard mapping.

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VICTOR’s Education page includes background on Cloud Computing, The Jupyter Project, and Python.

VICTOR Background

victor.ldeo.columbia.edu/content/training-and-tutorials

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    • Register for VICTOR using your github or email.
    • Navigate to victorproject.org, and select “Sign Up” on the right of the main menu.

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3. Complete the linked Google form.

4. You will receive an invite to the inbox of the email you used to sign up. Accept the invite, then return to victor.ldeo.columbia.edu and click “Hub Portal” in the navigation menu

5. Sign in using your credentials.

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If you prefer to follow a video, use this QR code to watch an introduction to VICTOR tutorial on youtube, that details the registration process

IN CLASS: REGISTER FOR VICTOR

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REGISTER

NEXT STEPS:

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If you have not already, use the steps provided on the previous slide to register for VICTOR.

COMPLETE

LAB

ANALAYZE RESULTS

Finally, you will use your outputs from running Tephra2 to apply what you have learned about modeling and volcanic hazards to a real world scenario.

Your lab handout will include step by step procedures you will need to complete to run Tephra2 on VICTOR.