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Description of proposed model and assumptions

MMED 2024

000

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Goals:

Describe each other’s diagrams

Reproduce diagrams using the model descriptions

Compare and contrast your original diagrams with the diagrams drawn by your partner

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Can Eastern red fox populations maintain rabies virus transmission?

Ask them to describe the model diagram.

Susceptible foxes enter the population through birth, and the rate at which foxes are born varies seasonally and as a function of how many uninfected (susceptible) adult foxes are in the population at a given time. Juvenile foxes age into the adult class, on average $1/\psi$ time units after they are born. Both juveniles and adults can be infected by infectious foxes, and susceptible foxes experience a force of infection proportional to the prevalence of infectious foxes in the population. Once infected, foxes enter the exposed class. The incubation period is $1/\gamma$ time units (on average), after which the animals develop rabies, which is equivalent to transitioning from the exposed class to the infectious class. All foxes in the population experience background mortality with hazard $\mu$, and infectious foxes experience an additional disease-induced hazard of mortality, $\alpha$.

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Can Eastern red fox populations maintain rabies virus transmission?

http://www.ici3d.org/MMED/tutorials/modelDescription

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Find your assigned group. Organize the group into a circle.

Step 1 (20 minutes). Give your diagram to the person on your left. Using your neighbor’s diagram, write down a description of the state variables, processes and influences. Do your best to be complete and clear. Include the research question

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Step 2 (15 minutes). Give your description to the person on your left (not the person who gave you the diagram). Using the description you received, reconstruct a diagram, following the diagram rules. Give the diagram back to the person who provided the original diagram.

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Step 3 (base groups, 10 minutes). Look at the description and the new diagram based on your original diagram. How do they match up? What has each person learned. What could your group have done better to make your original diagram or question clear?

Step 4 (base groups, 5 minutes). If appropriate, generate a new question and diagram.

Step 5 (Whole class, 5 minutes per group). Go around the group and discuss what you’ve learned from the exercise for each of the diagrams.

Overview: who had success, lessons, funny issues, etc?