CEOS AFOLU Roadmap

2021 Progress and Next Steps

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Agenda Item 18

2021 CEOS Plenary

Virtual Meeting

1-4 November 2021

Osamu Ochiai (JAXA) �Frank Martin Seifert (ESA)

Sylvia Wilson (USGS)

Mark Dowell (EC-JRC)

Ben Poulter (NASA)

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1. 2021 progress �Osamu Ochiai, JAXA & Frank Martin Seifert, ESA
2. National user engagement�Sylvia Wilson, USGS
3. GHG-AFOLU cooperation �Mark Dowell, EC-JRC
4. 2022 plans and agency support�Ben Poulter, NASA

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Agenda item

5 mins

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5 mins

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Desired Outcomes from Agenda Item

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• Principals’ understanding of the opportunity presented to space agencies by the UNFCCC Global Stocktake process and the importance of the land sector within it
• Including … the new dimension to our national user engagement

the necessary linkages with GHG

• Clarity on the way forward and approach required
• Key agencies commit representatives and resources

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Global Stocktake

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• Space agencies (CEOS & CGMS) have emphasised ECVs and Physical Climate via the GCOS framework very effectively for the past decade
• The importance of NDCs to Paris Agreement, and specifically the Global StockTake (GST), raises new challenges around country needs and implications for using EO data with greater emphasis on mitigation and adaptation, and national-level datasets
• A whole new dimension to our climate coordination - both a huge opportunity and a significant challenge

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“...if Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry targets involved in the initial NDCs were implemented in full, this would represent approximately a quarter of pledged mitigation efforts up to 2030“

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• SIT-35 action: JAXA and ESA explore the development of a CEOS AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses) Roadmap. The aim of the Roadmap is to assess the will, direction and capability of the relevant CEOS Agencies, with the SIT Chair team supporting communications with Principals and identifying team nominees.

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

AFOLU Team Participation

LSI Forest & Biomass SG

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• Co-Lead: Osamu Ochiai, JAXA & GFOI Co-Lead
• Co-Lead: Frank Martin Seifert, ESA & GFOI Co-Lead

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Heritage

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• SIT-35 action in March 2020
• Discussion Paper prepared for October 2020 Plenary

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A CEOS AFOLU Initiative for the UNFCCC Global Stocktake Process:

A Discussion Paper for CEOS Plenary to explore the development of a CEOS AFOLU Roadmap

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• In consultation with GHG team, agreed a laser focus during 2021 on having preliminary AFOLU products ready for COP-26 in support of GST-1
• In parallel: new engagement axis with national inventory users, building on our GFOI experience and in the spirit of the ambition cycle of the Paris agreement to learn together and grow together
• Also supporting CEOS input to the SO Synthesis Report

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Heritage & 2021 Approach

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• SIT-35 action in March 2020
• Discussion Paper prepared for October 2020 Plenary

A CEOS AFOLU Initiative for the UNFCCC Global Stocktake Process:

A Discussion Paper for CEOS Plenary to explore the development of a CEOS AFOLU Roadmap

• 2021 approach
• Assessment of latest AFOLU products that could be readied for COP-26
• Engagement of relevant product teams and identification of team leads for our purposes
• Coordination with SIT Chair Team and GHG Team to establish a working template for each dataset and its inclusion on the new CEOS GST Portal – as a unified point of entry to explain and offer our data
• New engagement axis with national inventory users, building on our GFOI experience and in the spirit of the ambition cycle of the Paris agreement to learn together and grow together

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

AFOLU Dataset Summary

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Our AFOLU offering for the GST Portal

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Above Ground Biomass

Land Cover

Agriculture

Forests

Mangroves

Refer to ceos.org/gst for further details on individual datasets & their application

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Roadmap signposts

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• Pragmatic focus for delivery to GST1 and GST2 like GHG Roadmap
• Simplify the offering to users – too many datasets = too much choice. Harmonised & recommended products per the biomass ambition
• Engage with countries and stakeholders in case studies to improve understanding and uptake of EO data by countries
• Take actions to assure the policy relevance of new capabilities (eg, through measures such as the CEOS Biomass Protocol)
• Improve EO capabilities to better meet the needs of the Convention and Parties, globally and on national level
• Providing new measurements that do not currently form part of CEOS agency capabilities
• Continue to engage in policy process and increase efficiency and effectiveness by which climate data requirements are set and to which CEOS and CGMS space agencies respond
• Ensure integration with GHG roadmap and products

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Sylvia on user engagement

Mark on GHG-AFOLU

Steve on GST

Ben on next steps

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

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Sylvia Wilson, USGS & SilvaCarbon

National User Engagement

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

National User Engagement

• validation of the harmonized biomass map (additional NFI data)

Solomon Islands

• Demonstration of uptake of satellite-based data and derived products in country reporting to the UNFCCC

Biomass – Calibration of Global CCI Biomass Map in Peru

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The carbon stored in the forests of Peru is measured from NFI Data by ecozones:

1. Coast,
2. Highlands
3. Accessible High Forest
4. High Forest of Difficult Access
5. Low Forest

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Current work:

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1. Peru is using the CCI biomass map (AGB) to update ecozone emission factors in the Peruvian Amazon.

2. calibrating these maps using parcel field data to obtain a spatially explicit biomass map for all ecozones in Peru.

Model Overview

Statistical estimation of mean biomass and margin of error

Remote sensing datasets calibrated with forest inventory data

Inputs: Field measurements of biomass, GEDI data, canopy cover, and forest strata

GEDI

Forest Strata and Field Plots

Tree Canopy Cover

Predicted Versus Observed Biomass

Paraguay GEDI inclusion on Emission Factors

Two primary outputs:

• Map of biomass at 6 km pixel resolution
• Statistical estimate of mean biomass and margin of error

Updates biomass estimates from inventory to 2020

Estimate can be made at national, regional, local, or forest scale

Applicable in remote and inaccessible forests and in countries without a well-established forest inventory

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1. Request of NFI or ground based data for calibration and validation of pantropical and global biomass datasets (ABG) – 27 countries
2. Include case studies of Biomass in NASA Biomass Dashboard
3. Validation of other CEOS datasets (World Cover, Hilda+ and Copernicus)
4. Engagement with other partners (GFOI and FAO)

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Moving Ahead….

Thanks!

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Sylvia Wilson

snwilson@usgs.gov

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Mark Dowell, EC-JRC

GHG-AFOLU Cooperation

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

GHG-AFOLU Workshop (... finally)

Workshop on Systematic Observation contributions and synergies for GHG & AFOLU in support of UNFCCC

Start dialogue between the different Earth Observation communities addressing the needs of UNFCCC

In particular, atmospheric GHG monitoring and those addressing aspects of the AFOLU sector

15th, 18th,19th November

Involving many relevant International coordination mechanisms

Address the "soft" coordination and stakeholder engagement aspects i.e. interface with the Convention, the UNFCCC Secretariat and Party user groups, but also more technical aspects of reporting, outputs datasets, formats, avoiding "double - accounting" and the longer-term ambition of using diverse earth observation datasets in the modelling and MVSs being developed

Topic => Questions => Discussion => Recommendations (report)

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Agenda and Guiding Questions

Overview/Question 1: User need/requirements

Overview/Question 2: Datasets & Standards

Overview/Question 3: Links to Carbon Cycle Community

Overview/Question 4: Research Needs

Overview/Question 5: Towards a Common MVS System

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Question 3 (& 2)

Recommendation 1: WGClimate GHG Task Team should consult with the relevant elements of CEOS, including Associates such as ISC, WCRP and GCOS, together with modelers, to check the GHG Implementation roadmap on completeness concerning requirements for terrestrial observation (SIF; NPP, landcover, biomass, etc.) for supporting mitigation actions through the development of MVS. The actions in Annex C of the roadmap shall be complemented as needed.

From (propose) CEOS GST Strategy. Also addresses Recommendations 2 & 4 as well

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• Link to CEOS Carbon Strategy - See progress on certain topics in additional material [Link]
• Also follow-on plan for target ECV Gap Analysis workshop (Feb 2022) - incl. Oceans

from Ciais et al. 2014

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Question 5: Towards a common MVS

Should we be thinking of a common MVS for both GHG and AFOLU sector users? if so - how do we get there, joint Roadmap? To start can we agree on a common GHG-AFOLU System overview?

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GHG

AFOLU

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

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Ben Poulter, NASA

2022 Plans & Agency Support

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

2022 Plans

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• 2020-21 efforts took stock of relevant capabilities and focused on ensuring relevant datasets were on the table for COP-26 and GST1

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• We now have more time to develop a considered strategy for an evolution of our GST AFOLU engagement that is in step with the timetable and process of the GST, the ambition cycle of the Paris agreement and the reporting needs of countries

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• Signposts from the road so far:
• We must simplify the offering to users. Fewer options means harmonised and recommended datasets
• Country engagement will be key
• We must ensure integration with GHG roadmap and products

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

2022 Plans

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• A full roadmap should provide a long-term framework, including:

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• Engagement in the policy process
• Engagement with countries and stakeholders
• Active participation of the major land surface observing programmes of CEOS agencies and of the respective dataset teams
• Internal coordination within CEOS, including with the GHG Task Team, LSI-VC, our GFOI reps etc (oversight of the CEOS GST Strategy will be provided by SIT Chair)
• Feedback to the agency mission and product planning processes

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

AFOLU Roadmap 2022 Plans & Agency Support

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021

Agency Support

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• NASA (Ben Poulter) will step up to join JAXA (Osamu Ochiai) and ESA (Frank Martin Seifert) as co-lead of the AFOLU Roadmap Team

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• Principals of all major land observing programmes are encouraged to confirm support for this major initiative
• A step change in capacity is needed
• Confirmation of new representatives welcome
• Re-confirmation and support of existing representatives also welcome

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• Key agency programmes include those of : ESA, EC, NASA, USGS, JAXA, CNES, DLR, CSA, amongst others

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CEOS Plenary, 1-4 November 2021