ASU Brokers Forum
Spring 2026
Contents
2
Overall Market
Section divider
Overall Market
How long have you been in commercial brokerage?
Overall Market
Please select all the asset classes you are confident in providing informed feedback.
Phoenix Commercial Broker Sentiment Index
50 → neutral outlook
> 50 → positive outlook
< 50 → negative outlook
Overall Market
Sentiment index and components
Above 50 indicates favorable sentiment, below 50 indicates negative sentiment,
a negative change indicates declining (less favorable) sentiment
| Oct-25 | Apr-26 | Change |
Commercial Broker Sentiment Index | 62.7 | 57.9 | -4.8 |
Local performance | 63.9 | 66.5 | 2.6 |
Direction of the market | 81.5 | 81.0 | -0.5 |
Vacancies (decreasing → favorable) | 55.0 | 60.8 | 5.8 |
Rents (increasing → favorable) | 55.2 | 57.5 | 2.3 |
Economic conditions | 68.6 | 58.9 | -9.7 |
Cycle (expansion, recovery → favorable) | 55.1 | 59.7 | 4.5 |
Interest rates (decreasing → favorable) | 86.9 | 60.9 | -26.0 |
Investor returns (increasing → favorable) | 64.2 | 56.5 | -7.7 |
Policy perceptions | 55.4 | 47.8 | -7.7 |
Local development program alignment | 65.2 | 67.4 | 2.2 |
Federal uncertainty (no → favorable) | 32.8 | 24.2 | -8.6 |
Federal regulation effect | 68.4 | 52.9 | -15.6 |
Overall Market
Broker sentiment by asset class
50 → neutral outlook
> 50 → positive outlook
< 50 → negative outlook
Overall Market
Overall Market
In what direction is the metro Phoenix market moving?
Overall Market
Over the next six months, job growth in metro Phoenix will
Overall Market
Where are we in the cycle?
Overall Market
What is your overall feeling about the metro Phoenix CRE market?
Overall Market
Where are interest rates for commercial loans headed in the next 6 months?
Overall Market
Where are investor returns headed in the next 6 months?
Overall Market
Are local economic development programs and the real estate markets aligned?
Overall Market
Is uncertainty in the federal government affecting the CRE market and hindering our local growth potential?
Overall Market
How will changes in federal regulations related to CRE lending affect the market over the next 6 months?
Overall Market
How do you expect AI and other emerging technologies to affect the CRE market over the next 12 months?
Overall Market
How will Arizona's positioning as the "Silicon Desert" influence demand across office, industrial, and retail sectors?
Comparisons
Section divider
Comparisons
In what direction is the metro Phoenix market moving?
Comparisons
Is this a tenant or landlord market?
Comparisons
Will we see more speculative development in the next 6 months?
Comparisons
Over the next 6 months, on average, cap rates will...
Capital Markets
Over the next 6 months, on average, cap rates will... (asked of investment brokers)
Comparisons
Where are absorption rates headed in the next 6 months?
Comparisons
Do you expect construction costs to increase, decrease, or stay the same in the next 6 months?
Land
Section divider
Land
In what direction is the Single-Family Residential housing market heading?
Land
Transaction volume over the next six months will:
Land
Over the next six months, land prices for _____ will...
Land
In the next six months, how much will buying activity depend on interest rates? - Not at all = 1. Completely = 5
Land
What will have the greatest impact on homebuilding over the next 6 months?
Land
What will have the greatest impact on commercial land acquisition over the next 6 months?
Land
Which asset class is most active in the commercial market?
Land
Over the next six months, which equity partners will be the most active in residential land acquisition?
Land
Over the next six months, which equity partners will be the most active in commercial land acquisition?
Land
Over the next six months, the availability of debt for residential land acquisition will
Land
Over the next six months, the availability of debt for commercial land acquisition will
Industrial
Section divider
Industrial
In what direction is the metro Phoenix Industrial market moving?
Industrial
Where are Industrial vacancy rates headed in the next 6 months?
Industrial
Where are Industrial rents headed in the next 6 months?
Industrial
Where are Industrial absorption rates headed in the next 6 months?
Industrial
Owner/sales in the next 6 months will ....
Industrial
Build-to-suits in the next 6 months will ....
Industrial
Is this a tenant or landlord Industrial market?
Industrial
Will we see considerable speculative development in the Industrial market in the next 6 months?
Industrial
Power availability is in line with demand.
Industrial
Over the next 6 months, on average, Industrial cap rates will
Industrial
Do you foresee a potential for industrial overbuilding in the short-term
Industrial
Do you foresee a potential for industrial overbuilding in the long term
Industrial
In terms of recent transactions, is demand for industrial space being fueled more by
Industrial
Are existing Industrial tenants
Industrial
How will AI affect demand for physical space?
Industrial
Do you expect construction costs to increase, decrease, or stay the same in the next 6 months?
Industrial
Do you expect labor costs to increase, decrease, or stay the same in the next 6 months?
Industrial
Which categories do you expect to drive the most demand in the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Section divider
Multifamily
In what direction is the metro Phoenix Multifamily market heading?
Multifamily
Where are Multifamily vacancy rates headed in the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Where are Multifamily rents headed in the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Where are multifamily absorption rates headed over the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Compared to the previous six months, is the pace of absorption accelerating, decelerating, or staying the same?
Multifamily
Is the net absorption of new units positive, negative, or about zero?
Multifamily
Which Multifamily Property class will realize the greatest rent growth over the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Are rents for new construction properties going to increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next six months?
Multifamily
How much has the cost of materials impacted apartment rental rates?
Multifamily
Will the availability of labor be an issue in the development of apartment projects over the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Will apartment rent affordability be a concern over the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Over the next 6 months, on average, Multifamily cap rates will
Multifamily
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Multifamily market in the short term (less than 1 year)?
Multifamily
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Multifamily market in the long term (2-5 years)?
Multifamily
Will Single-Family Build-to-Rent outperform traditional Multifamily?
Multifamily
Do you expect construction costs to increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next 6 months?
Multifamily
Are concession percentages
Multifamily
Is investor sentiment strengthening, weakening, or staying the same?
Multifamily
What are your greatest fears for the Multifamily sector in the next six months?
Other (write-in)
1. “capital markets”
2. “institutional top-down perspective”
3. “Supply”
Office
Section divider
Office
In what direction is the metro Phoenix Office market heading?
Office
Over the next six months, Office inventory will:
Office
Where are Office vacancy rates headed in the next 6 months?
Office
Where are Office rents headed in the next 6 months?
Office
Where are Office absorption rates headed over the next 6 months?
Office
Is this a tenant or landlord office market?
Office
Over the next 6 months, on average, Office cap rates will
Office
Will we see more Office speculative development in the next 6 months?
Office
Over the next six months, tenant concessions will
Office
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Office market in the short term (less than 1 year)?
Office
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Office market over the long term (2-5 years)?
Office
Over the next 6 months, do you see Office tenants
Office
Over the next 6 months, Office tenants who do not renew will:
Office
In terms of transactions, is the office market being fueled more by
Office
Over the next six months, AI will increase demand for physical space
Office
Do you expect construction costs to increase, decrease, or stabilize in the next 6 months?
Office
Please rank what is most important to your clients (average rank)
Lower number means ranked more important, on average
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Section divider
Outpatient Medical Facilities
In what direction is the metro Phoenix Outpatient Medical Facilities market heading?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Where are Outpatient Medical Facilities' vacancy rates headed in the next 6 months?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Where are Outpatient Medical Facilities' rents headed in the next 6 months?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Is the current Outpatient Medical Facilities market more favorable to tenants or landlords?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Where are Outpatient Medical Facilities' absorption rates headed over the next 6 months?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Over the next 6 months, on average, Outpatient Medical Facilities Cap Rates will
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Will we see more speculative Outpatient Medical Facilities development in the next 6 months?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Outpatient Medical Facilities sector in the short term (less than 1 year)?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Outpatient Medical Facilities sector over the long term (2-5 years)?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Will federal subsidies increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next year?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Will capital market activity increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next year?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Do you expect construction costs to increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next year?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Will office-to-medical conversions increase, decrease, or stay the same over the next year?
Outpatient Medical Facilities
Do you expect the supply of clinicians to meet demand over the next year?
Retail
Section divider
Retail
In what direction is the metro Phoenix Retail market moving?
Retail
Where are Retail rents headed in the next 6 months?
Retail
Where are Retail vacancy rates headed in the next 6 months?
Retail
Where are Retail absorption rates headed in the next 6 months?
Retail
Is this a tenant or landlord Retail market?
Retail
Over the next 6 months, on average, cap rates for Retail will...
Retail
Will demand by end-users support high-dollar Planned Area Development (PAD) ground leases over the next 6 months?
Retail
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Retail market in the short term (Less than 1 year)?
Retail
Do you foresee a potential for overbuilding in the Retail market over the longer term (3-5 years)?
Retail
Are existing Retail tenants moving toward size
Retail
How are existing Retail tenant's store counts changing within Metro Phoenix?
Retail
In terms of recent transactions, is demand being fueled more by
Retail
Do you expect construction costs to increase, decrease, or stay the same in the next 6 months?
Retail
Which categories do you expect to drive the most demand in the next 6 months?
Retail
What concessions are you seeing today?
Capital Markets
Section divider
Capital Markets
In what direction is the metro Phoenix investment market heading?
Capital Markets
Over the next six months, transaction volume will increase, decrease, or stay the same.
Capital Markets
Will the flow of investment capital into the Phoenix market over the next 6 months?
Capital Markets
What is the preferred investment strategy today?
Capital Markets
Over the next six months, the availability of equity will increase, decrease, or stay the same?
Capital Markets
Over the next six months, the availability of debt will increase, decrease, or stay the same?
Capital Markets
Who do you believe will be the most active equity provider in the next six months
Capital Markets
In the next 12 months, do you think long-term Treasury rates will rise, fall, or stay flat?
Capital Markets
Spreads over the next 12 months will
Capital Markets
Is the level of distressed assets transactions increasing, decreasing, or flat?
Capital Markets
How do you expect the amount of foreign capital to change over the next six months?
Contact us
140
Tom Johnston�Tjohnston@asu.edu | � |
Arizona State University
asu.edu