1 of 20

DISARM – Defending Interglobal Societies from Asteroid Ruin Mutually

Chelsea Dutenhoffer

ASTE-527

2 of 20

Scenario

TODAY: Dec 17, 2013

Earth

New NEO

A new near-Earth object is discovered!

12/17/2013

2

3 of 20

Problem

Earth

New NEO

9 months from now: Sep 17, 2014

12/17/2013

3

4 of 20

Threat Classification

  • M-Type asteroid
    • Composition primarily �Iron-Nickel
  • Monolithic
  • Diameter: 1 km
    • Impact would result in 25% global human mortality

9-month warning: must intercept asteroid on its final orbit

Fragment asteroid using subsurface nuclear explosive

12/17/2013

4

5 of 20

Background: Nuclear Fragmentation

1 Image from simulation described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

12/17/2013

5

6 of 20

June 9, 2014: 100 days before impact

Earth

New NEO

12/17/2013

6

7 of 20

Background: Debris Cloud Threat

Mass of fragments (Tons)

Number of fragments

Miss Distance (Earth Radii)

Miss Distance (Earth Radii)

Only a small amount of debris impacts Earth

1 Image from model described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

12/17/2013

7

8 of 20

Proposal

  • Creation of a global planetary defense agency
  • Joint, multi-spacecraft program composed of multiple national agencies working together

  • Seek to sufficiently fragment asteroid such that it poses no threat to civilization on Earth
    • Remaining fragments are small enough that they can be handled via evacuations

Nuclear Destroyers Strategic Deflectors Reconnaissance Craft

12/17/2013

8

9 of 20

Phase 1: Reconnaissance

Phase 2: Fragmentation

Phase 3: Debris cloud monitoring � and strategic deflection

12/17/2013

9

10 of 20

Reconnaissance Spacecraft (1)

Purpose:

  • Characterize asteroid
  • Monitor destruction/deflection attempts
  • Real-time target acquisition and programming
  • Provide debris cloud information to Earth

Heritage:

  • Deep Impact, NEAR, Dawn (NASA)
  • Rosetta, Don Quixote (ESA)
  • Hayabusa (JAXA)

12/17/2013

10

11 of 20

Reconnaissance Spacecraft (2)

  • Multiple designs:
    • CNES (France): spacecraft
    • DLR (Germany): spacecraft
    • CSA (Canada): spacecraft
    • AEB (Brasil): spacecraft
    • Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries: spacecraft
    • ASI (Italy): instrument payload
      • VIR/VIRTIS spectrometer heritage

12/17/2013

11

12 of 20

Nuclear Destroyers (1)

Purpose:

  • Fragment asteroid
    • ~1 MT subsurface nuclear explosive
  • Position explosive to minimize debris near Earth

Heritage:

  • Nuclear weapons, missiles (USA, Russia)

12/17/2013

12

13 of 20

Nuclear Destroyers (2)

  • Two different systems: Russian and U.S.
    • Redundancy
    • Partnership between national space and defense agencies
  • Repurpose existing nuclear weapons
    • Good on short timeframe
    • Put weapons to good use
  • Agreement already in place to share nuclear information

12/17/2013

13

14 of 20

Strategic Deflectors (1)

Purpose:

  • Deflect/destroy large fragments that pose a �threat to Earth
  • Receive targets from reconnaissance spacecraft, �act autonomously
  • May or may not be nuclear

Heritage:

  • Ballistic missiles and missile defense systems �(US, Russia, Israel, China, France, UK, Italy, India, Japan)

12/17/2013

14

15 of 20

Strategic Deflectors (2)

  • Multiple designs based on missiles and defense:
    • CNSA (China): spacecraft
    • ISRO (India): spacecraft
      • Mars Orbiter Mission, standard Earth-orbiter bus heritage
    • ISA (Israel): spacecraft
      • Iron Dome missile system, Ofeq/Amos/Eros bus heritage
    • JAXA (Japan): spacecraft
      • Missile defense system and Hayabusa heritage

12/17/2013

15

16 of 20

Launch Vehicles

12/17/2013

16

17 of 20

Ground Stations

Goldstone

Madrid

Canberra

Malargüe

Cebreros

New Norcia

Svalbard

TrollSat

Kourou

Bear Lakes

Byalalu

Yevpatoria

Galenki

Miyun

Kashi

Sanya

12/17/2013

17

18 of 20

Advantages of International Coordination

  • More launch/trajectory options
  • More ground stations
  • Access to supercomputers for simulations
  • Can operate many complementary spacecraft at once

International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission

Mission too large for unilateral action

International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission

Mission too large for unilateral action

12/17/2013

18

19 of 20

Future Studies

  • EMF shielding for spacecraft near nuclear blast
  • Autonomous target acquisition
  • Communication between spacecraft without ground in the loop

12/17/2013

19

20 of 20

References

  • Ahrens, T. J., & Harris, A. W. (1992). Deflection and fragmentation of near-Earth asteroids. Nature, 360(6403), 429-433.
  • Barrera, Mark. "Conceptual Design of an Asteroid Interceptor for a Nuclear Deflection Mission." Planetary Defense Conference. (2004): Web. <http://pdf.aiaa.org/downloads/2004/CDReadyMPDC04_865/2004_1481.pdf>.
  • Birch, Douglas. "A New Use for Nuclear Weapons: Hunting Rogue Asteroids." The Center for Public Integrity, 16 Oct 2013. Web. <http://www.publicintegrity.org/2013/10/16/13547/new-use-nuclear-weapons-hunting-rogue-asteroids>.
  • Dearborn, David. "Avoiding Armageddon: Diverting Asteroids with Nuclear Explosives." University of California Television: 08 Feb 2010. Web. <http://www.uctv.tv/shows/Avoiding-Armageddon-Diverting-Asteroids-with-Nuclear-Explosives-17643>.
  • Eyes on the Solar System. 2013. NASA Web. <http://eyes.nasa.gov/>.
  • Lakdawalla, Emily. "Pretty Pictures: Amazing Asteroid Lutetia." The Planetary Society, 10 Apr 2012. Web. <http://planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/3448.html>.
  • MIM-104 Patriot. Photograph. Wikipedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot>
  • Minuteman III Missile. Photograph. Air Force Reserve Command Space Asset Media GalleryWeb. <http://www.afrc.af.mil/shared/media/ggallery/hires/afg_021221_001.jpg>.
  • Space Rocket Launch Sites Around the World. Photograph. Space Today OnlineWeb. <http://www.spacetoday.org/Rockets/Spaceports/LaunchSites.html>.
  • Spinning Asteroid 4. Photograph. Web. <http://media.photobucket.com/user/zorq1/media/Spinning-asteroid-3.gif.html>.
  • "United States, Russia Sign Agreement to Further Research and Development Collaboration in Nuclear Energy and Security." 16 Sep 2013: n. page. Web. 17 Dec. 2013. <http://energy.gov/articles/united-states-russia-sign-agreement-further-research-and-development-collaboration-nuclear>.
  • 1 Wie, B., & Dearborn, D. (2010, February). Earth-Impact Modeling and Analysis of a Near-Earth Object Fragmented and Dispersed by Nuclear Subsurface Explosions. In 20th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting (Vol. 10, p. 137). <http://wordpress.engineering.iastate.edu/adrc/files/2012/09/AAS-10-137.pdf>

12/17/2013

20