DISARM – Defending Interglobal Societies from Asteroid Ruin Mutually

Chelsea Dutenhoffer

ASTE-527

Scenario

TODAY: Dec 17, 2013

Earth

New NEO

A new near-Earth object is discovered!

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Problem

Earth

New NEO

9 months from now: Sep 17, 2014

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Threat Classification

• M-Type asteroid
• Composition primarily �Iron-Nickel
• Monolithic
• Diameter: 1 km
• Impact would result in 25% global human mortality

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9-month warning: must intercept asteroid on its final orbit

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Fragment asteroid using subsurface nuclear explosive

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Background: Nuclear Fragmentation

¹ Image from simulation described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

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June 9, 2014: 100 days before impact

New NEO

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Background: Debris Cloud Threat

¹ Image from model described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

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Proposal

• Creation of a global planetary defense agency
• Joint, multi-spacecraft program composed of multiple national agencies working together

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• Seek to sufficiently fragment asteroid such that it poses no threat to civilization on Earth
• Remaining fragments are small enough that they can be handled via evacuations

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Nuclear Destroyers Strategic Deflectors Reconnaissance Craft

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Phase 1: Reconnaissance

Phase 2: Fragmentation

Phase 3: Debris cloud monitoring � and strategic deflection

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Reconnaissance Spacecraft (1)

Purpose:

• Characterize asteroid
• Monitor destruction/deflection attempts
• Real-time target acquisition and programming
• Provide debris cloud information to Earth

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Heritage:

• Deep Impact, NEAR, Dawn (NASA)
• Rosetta, Don Quixote (ESA)
• Hayabusa (JAXA)

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Reconnaissance Spacecraft (2)

• Multiple designs:
• CNES (France): spacecraft
• DLR (Germany): spacecraft
• CSA (Canada): spacecraft
• AEB (Brasil): spacecraft
• Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries: spacecraft
• ASI (Italy): instrument payload
• VIR/VIRTIS spectrometer heritage

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Nuclear Destroyers (1)

Purpose:

• Fragment asteroid
• ~1 MT subsurface nuclear explosive
• Position explosive to minimize debris near Earth

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Heritage:

• Nuclear weapons, missiles (USA, Russia)

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Nuclear Destroyers (2)

• Two different systems: Russian and U.S.
• Redundancy
• Partnership between national space and defense agencies
• Repurpose existing nuclear weapons
• Good on short timeframe
• Put weapons to good use
• Agreement already in place to share nuclear information

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Strategic Deflectors (1)

Purpose:

• Deflect/destroy large fragments that pose a �threat to Earth
• Receive targets from reconnaissance spacecraft, �act autonomously
• May or may not be nuclear

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Heritage:

• Ballistic missiles and missile defense systems �(US, Russia, Israel, China, France, UK, Italy, India, Japan)

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Strategic Deflectors (2)

• Multiple designs based on missiles and defense:
• CNSA (China): spacecraft
• ISRO (India): spacecraft
• Mars Orbiter Mission, standard Earth-orbiter bus heritage
• ISA (Israel): spacecraft
• Iron Dome missile system, Ofeq/Amos/Eros bus heritage
• JAXA (Japan): spacecraft
• Missile defense system and Hayabusa heritage

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Launch Vehicles

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Ground Stations

Goldstone

Madrid

Canberra

Malargüe

Cebreros

New Norcia

Svalbard

TrollSat

Kourou

Bear Lakes

Byalalu

Yevpatoria

Galenki

Miyun

Kashi

Sanya

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Advantages of International Coordination

• More launch/trajectory options
• More ground stations
• Access to supercomputers for simulations
• Can operate many complementary spacecraft at once

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International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission

�Mission too large for unilateral action

International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission

�Mission too large for unilateral action

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Future Studies

• EMF shielding for spacecraft near nuclear blast
• Autonomous target acquisition
• Communication between spacecraft without ground in the loop

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References

• Ahrens, T. J., & Harris, A. W. (1992). Deflection and fragmentation of near-Earth asteroids. Nature, 360(6403), 429-433.
• Barrera, Mark. "Conceptual Design of an Asteroid Interceptor for a Nuclear Deflection Mission." Planetary Defense Conference. (2004): Web. <http://pdf.aiaa.org/downloads/2004/CDReadyMPDC04_865/2004_1481.pdf>.
• Birch, Douglas. "A New Use for Nuclear Weapons: Hunting Rogue Asteroids." The Center for Public Integrity, 16 Oct 2013. Web. <http://www.publicintegrity.org/2013/10/16/13547/new-use-nuclear-weapons-hunting-rogue-asteroids>.
• Dearborn, David. "Avoiding Armageddon: Diverting Asteroids with Nuclear Explosives." University of California Television: 08 Feb 2010. Web. <http://www.uctv.tv/shows/Avoiding-Armageddon-Diverting-Asteroids-with-Nuclear-Explosives-17643>.
• Eyes on the Solar System. 2013. NASA Web. <http://eyes.nasa.gov/>.
• Lakdawalla, Emily. "Pretty Pictures: Amazing Asteroid Lutetia." The Planetary Society, 10 Apr 2012. Web. <http://planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2012/3448.html>.
• MIM-104 Patriot. Photograph. Wikipedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot>
• Minuteman III Missile. Photograph. Air Force Reserve Command Space Asset Media GalleryWeb. <http://www.afrc.af.mil/shared/media/ggallery/hires/afg_021221_001.jpg>.
• Space Rocket Launch Sites Around the World. Photograph. Space Today OnlineWeb. <http://www.spacetoday.org/Rockets/Spaceports/LaunchSites.html>.
• Spinning Asteroid 4. Photograph. Web. <http://media.photobucket.com/user/zorq1/media/Spinning-asteroid-3.gif.html>.
• "United States, Russia Sign Agreement to Further Research and Development Collaboration in Nuclear Energy and Security." 16 Sep 2013: n. page. Web. 17 Dec. 2013. <http://energy.gov/articles/united-states-russia-sign-agreement-further-research-and-development-collaboration-nuclear>.
• ¹ Wie, B., & Dearborn, D. (2010, February). Earth-Impact Modeling and Analysis of a Near-Earth Object Fragmented and Dispersed by Nuclear Subsurface Explosions. In 20th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting (Vol. 10, p. 137). <http://wordpress.engineering.iastate.edu/adrc/files/2012/09/AAS-10-137.pdf>

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