Live Counting July-Dec 2018 Prediction Game
What will happen in the last six months of 2018?

Your goal is to earn as many points as possible by making predictions which stand the test of time. In total, there are 130 non-bonus points available. Section point totals exclude any bonus points. The deadline to enter without a late penalty is July 20, 2018 at 3:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (UTC-04:00); however, there will be a small grace period. For late entries, 1 point will be deducted for each day past the deadline.

Allow yourself plenty of time to complete this form, especially the detailed predictions and writing section. All questions refer to the period of time from July 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018, inclusive of the end days, Eastern Time, unless noted. Feel free to use any available resources, statistics, and tools in making your decisions. The only required responses are your username and the tiebreaker; however, you are advised to answer all questions since there is no benefit in leaving most questions blank. Review your responses carefully before submitting. All the scored questions are on this page of the form; the second page contains only unscored questions. All times/dates below are measured according to Eastern time.

Point values and question wording may change slightly while predictions are still being accepted. Within reason, small changes to the scoring of this game may be made during the grading process.

Omit the /u/ from all username answers. Answers which start with /u/ will receive only partial credit.

Scoring Breakdown by Section
Username: 2 points
Section I: General Statistics: 25 questions, 30 points
Section II: Individual Achievements and Rankings: 28 questions, 30 points
Section III: Numerical Predictions: 12 questions, 30 points
Section IV: Writing: 2 questions, 30 points
Section V: Score Predictions: 3 questions, 8 points
Section VI: Miscellaneous Fun Predictions: 8 questions, 0 points
Section VII: Feedback: 10 questions, not scored
Total: 130 points

For any questions or clarifications regarding this game, ask Tranquilsunrise. Good luck!

Abbreviations: HoC = Hall of Counters, HoP = Hall of Participation, HoG = Hall of Gets, HoA = Hall of Assists, CotD = Counter of the Day, WRC = Well-Rounded Counter. When used to modify a number, k = thousand, M = million; when used without a number, k = 1,000 counts from one get to the next. Medals refer to daily HoCs unless stated otherwise. Other abbreviations can be found in the FAQs.
Sign in to Google to save your progress. Learn more
What is your Reddit username? *
2 points. Omit the /u/. If you get this wrong, I will be unable to award you these free points.
Section I: General Statistics
1 point per correct answer, 30 points total, multiple choice.
Which range will the main count be in at the end of December 2018?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 1,000,000 counts?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 300,000 counts?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 100,000 counts?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 1,000 counts?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 1 count?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 1,000 k participations?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 200 k participations?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 2,000,000 participation points in the HoP?
Clear selection
How many new side threads will be created?
Exclude revivals of archived threads and threads that do not gain official approval.
Clear selection
How many new side threads will earn a stats page (5 gets)?
Clear selection
How many unique counters will be in the top 10 of the HoC, HoG, or HoA?
Clear selection
How many users will be in the Hall of Speed (sub-9 minute k run)?
Clear selection
Will /r/livecounting have the same moderators as it does now?
Bots will be ignored for this question.
Clear selection
Rank the six months by the number of counts that will be done in each month.
1 point per correct rank-month pairing. 1st means the most counts, 6th means the fewest counts.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Clear selection
Which month will contain the day with the most counts for a gold medal?
Clear selection
Which month will contain the day with the fewest counts for a gold medal?
Clear selection
On what percent of days will someone earn WRC?
Clear selection
What will be the highest HoC rank achieved by a new user who joins LC on or after July 1?
Clear selection
What will be the highest HoC rank achieved by an existing user who has fewer than 10,000 counts as of July 1?
Clear selection
How many new counts will the three least active LC mods make altogether?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 10 CotD Olympics gold medals?
Clear selection
How many users will have at least 1 medal?
Clear selection
How long will the longest streak of gold medals earned by a single person be?
Clear selection
On January 2 at 1 am Eastern time, how many daily HoCs from July-December will be missing?
Missing means that the daily HoC was never correctly generated (not all HoCs need to be generated on time or appear in the daily HoC list).
Clear selection
Section II: Individual Achievements and Rankings
1 point per correct answer, 30 points total, username response. Omit /u/ in all usernames; up to two correct answers with /u/ will not be penalized, but subsequent correct answers including /u/ will incur a penalty of one-half.

If you think the answer is a counter who joins live counting on or after July 1, write "new counter".
Who will be #1 in the HoC?
Who will be #2 in the HoC?
Who will be #4 in the HoC?
Who will be #6 in the HoC?
Who will be #8 in the HoC?
Who will be #10 in the HoC?
Who will be #12 in the HoC?
Who will be #14 in the HoC?
Who will be #16 in the HoC?
Who will be #18 in the HoC?
Who will be #20 in the HoC?
Who will be #22 in the HoC?
Who will be #24 in the HoC?
Who will be #26 in the HoC?
Who will be #28 in the HoC?
Who will be #30 in the HoC?
Who will be #3 in the Hall of Palindromes?
Who will be #6 in the Hall of Gets?
Who will be #10 in the Hall of Assists?
Who will have the second most CotD Olympics gold medals?
Which user will reach 1,500,000 participation points first? If none, write "none".
Which users will get a 1M (million) get, e.g. 9,000,000? Name only two.
1 point per correct answer.
Which users will get a 1M assist, e.g. 8,999,999? Name only two.
1 point per correct answer.
Name one user who will win at least three 100k HoCs.
Name one user who will win exactly one 100k HoC.
Name one user who will win at least two monthly prediction games by gordonpt8. If none, write "none".
1 point if one such user is correctly selected, 1 point if "none" is correctly selected.
Name one user who will join live counting and get their first count on or after August 1.
User must not be an alt, i.e. must be a person new to live counting.
Specify any count other than a 1M get or assist which will be counted in the next six months and at least 48 hours after the prediction game deadline, and name the user who will count it. This user cannot be yourself or your alt.
1 point for naming the correct user who counts the specified number.
Section III: Numerical Predictions
See point values for each question. 30 points total, numerical free response.

Number guess questions are graded by the absolute value of the difference between guess and actual number; a smaller difference is better. Throughout this game, in the event of a tie in exact number guess for questions graded by rank, all tied users will earn points corresponding to the tied rank.
What will the exact count in the main thread be? (tiebreaker) *
6 points if closest or second closest, 4 points if third or fourth closest, 2 points if fifth or sixth closest or within 500k. +20 bonus and eternal live counting glory if within 1k.
What will the exact count in slow counting be?
2 points if first, second, or third closest, 1 point if fourth, fifth, or sixth closest or within 2k. +2 bonus if within 100.
What will the exact count in bar counting be?
2 points if first, second, or third closest, 1 point if fourth, fifth, or sixth closest or within 50. +2 bonus if within 1.
Name any other side thread. What will the exact count in this thread be?
2 points if within 500 counts, 1 point if within 1k counts. The side thread must not be archived as of August 1.
Of the side threads created after July 1, how many counts will be in the most active one?
2 points if first, second, or third closest, 1 point if fourth, fifth, or sixth closest or within 500. +2 bonus if within 1.
The 10th place counter in the HoC will have how many counts?
2 points if first, second, or third closest, 1 point if fourth, fifth, or sixth closest.
The 25th place counter in the HoC will have how many counts?
2 points if first, second, or third closest, 1 point if fourth, fifth, or sixth closest.
How many users will have at least one count?
2 points if first, second, or third closest, 1 point if fourth, fifth, or sixth closest. +2 bonus if within 2.
What will the Olympic record (most counts in one day) be?
2 points if exact and Olympic record has not increased from the current 36,287 counts. Otherwise, 2 points if closest or second closest, 1 point if third or fourth closest, and +2 bonus if within 500.
On what day will the count reach 9,000,000?
3 points if closest or second closest, 2 points if third or fourth closest, 1 point if fifth or sixth closest or within 7 days. +2 bonus if exactly correct.
MM
/
DD
/
YYYY
On what day will the count reach 10,000,000?
3 points if closest or second closest, 2 points if third or fourth closest, 1 point if fifth or sixth closest or within 14 days. If you believe the count will not reach 10M by the end of December, leave this question blank (2 points if correctly left blank). +2 bonus if exactly correct.
MM
/
DD
/
YYYY
The last number counted in December 2018 will end in the digit:
2 points if correct, 1 point if off by 1.
Section IV: Writing
15 points per question, as detailed below. 30 points total, long-answer free response.

Be sure to submit detailed, thoughtful, well-written responses for maximum credit. Because this section has fewer questions than in previous long-term prediction games, responses to these questions should be longer than in the past.
What are your personal live counting plans for the next six months, and why? Include specific goals and predictions, places in halls you would like to attain (e.g. #10 in hall of X), special numbers you want to count, side thread goals, and other plans even if not directly related to counting.
15 points: 6 for including a variety of specific predictions and goals along with reasoning, 6 for accuracy of predictions and attainment of goals, 3 for writing quality.
How do you think live counting as a whole will change and not change by the end of the year, and why? Take into account changes in other counters' preferences, variations of the activity level in main, side, and discussion threads, interactions between counters, the overall atmosphere of the count, and other factors. Explain how these will affect the count.
15 points: 6 for including specific predictions of changes and similarities along with reasoning, 6 for accuracy of predictions, 3 for writing quality.
Section V: Score Predictions
See point values for each question. 8 points total, numerical free response.

For these questions, only consider the 120 points available in sections I-IV. Exclude the name points, late penalty, and section V questions (this section).
How many points do you think you earned in this prediction game?
3 points if closest or second closest, 2 points if third or fourth closest, 1 point if fifth or sixth closest. +2 bonus if exactly correct.
What will the mean (average) score for this prediction game be?
3 points if closest or second closest, 2 points if third or fourth closest, 1 point if fifth or sixth closest. +2 bonus if within 0.5 points.
Estimate where your prediction game score falls compared to other users who played.
2 points if correct. Each quintile includes one-fifth of the scores. Top quintile refers to scores in the top 20%, second quintile refers to scores in the top 40% but not in the top 20%, etc.
Next
Clear form
Never submit passwords through Google Forms.
This content is neither created nor endorsed by Google. Report Abuse - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy
Google Forms