#Future of Jobs in India - Quarterly Dossier Edition 10/ Q4 / 2019
We welcome you to the 10th edition of our quarterly dossier on the "FUTURE OF JOBS IN INDIA”. The dossier presents a careful selection of news, op-eds and reports on key developments in the jobs space.

With the economic slowdown being witnessed in all the prominent sectors of Indian economy, there has been an on-going debate around the potential target areas for improving the economy. Efforts have been made to invite investment by large corporates through tax rebates. However, the employment rate is declining and so do the consumption power of the Indian masses. Moreover, automation has established itself as the predominant route for efficiency and growth of enterprises. In this context, it becomes essential to deliberate on different strategies for job creation & their sustainability. Such disruptions come at a time when investment growth and exports have also declined in the Indian economy. Also, overall demand crisis has begun to overcast its shadow on the economy in what has been lately referred to as the “middle income trap”. At this crucial stage of changed global polarities and fast converging global economy, it becomes crucial to understand narratives around employment and job creation.

The tenth edition of the dossier presents important news and commentary on job creation strategy, in an attempt to clarify relevant facts and present perspectives from experts. It also covers a few relevant articles related to Food Processing & Textile and Apparel sector in India. Both these sectors are labour intensive sectors & provide substantial number of jobs to the Indian masses. However, both these sectors are rapidly being transformed under regime of industry 4.0. A human-centric approach, as highlighted by many experts, is the need of the hour to ensure jobs in this sector are well-paying and sustainable. You can find links to previous editions of the dossier below:

Edition 9
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Edition 5
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The Big Picture
1. We need a people-centric approach to economic policy

Arun Maira |Live Mint |October 16, 2019

“Citizens at the bottom of the pyramid must be the focus of reforms for sustainable growth”.   The author is critical of the top-down growth model which forms the central narrative of growth in our country. He further affirms that the ideal policy needs to be envisioned from the perspective of the poorest citizens in a human-centred development paradigm. According to him, the principal cause for the slump in India’s growth, is the slackening of consumer demand even for basic things like packaged foods. To cater to this issue, he iterates that “India’s policies must be refocused on creating more jobs with better incomes by producing more locally for its market needs.

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/opinion-we-need-a-people-centric-approach-to-economic-policy-11571244200937.html

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2. India Has People. It Needs Consumers: Supply shocks are no longer the problem. Getting the economy on track needs ordinary people to spend.

Andy Mukherjee | Bloomberg |November 16, 2019

The essence of the article lies in the fact that it is the ongoing demand funk that is the crucial plank for explaining the current economic slowdown the country is facing. “The supply-dominated headline number is now more likely to shift toward the demand-led core figure, JP Morgan Chase & Co. research has shown. Slack in the economy — of which there’s plenty — has become much more important than a transient disruption in commodity supplies”.  
As expounded by Rathin Roy of the New Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, “the economy grows by producing what 150 million of the top income earners consume. When it comes to an inexpensive shirt that India’s workers can make for their billion-plus fellow citizens, Bangladesh does a better job”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-16/india-s-economy-has-a-demand-problem-only-more-consumers-can-fix


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3. Minimum wage macroeconomics

Rathin Roy | Business Standard| November 8, 2019

“When relative prices do not serve the national good, then there is a case for government intervention, especially when distorted relative prices are a driver of macroeconomic slowdown”.
Welcoming the national floor minimum wage (NFMW), the author says that there is indeed a need for an incomes policy determined by macroeconomic considerations, and it is of urgent importance as the country faces a structural demand slowdown. “This key reform uses the consumption power of the aam aadmi to leverage economic growth”.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/minimum-wage-macroeconomics-119110800012_1.html

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4. Urban Joblessness: The state of unemployment in the economy

ET Bureau | November 25, 2019

The National Statistics Office released a report on the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for urban areas for Jan-Mar 2019 expounding key indicators including unemployment, labour force participation rate and industry-wise jobs scenario.
Unemployment rate declined in the first three months of 2019 to a 4-quarter low, however, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab saw a rise in their unemployment rates for the aforesaid period. The tertiary sector saw a rise in employment figures by 0.8 per cent. 53.6 per cent of persons in the age group of 15 and above were found to have not been in the labour force, while 4.2 per cent of all were found to be unemployed.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/urban-joblessness-the-state-of unemployment-in-the-economy/articleshow/72215656.cms?from=mdr

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5. The new code to build industrial relations

Times of India | November 29, 2019

The Union government on 28th November introduced the Bill on Labour Code on Industrial Relations, 2019 in the Lok Sabha. The government has decided to merge 44 labour laws into four codes — on wages, industrial relations, social security and safety, health and working conditions.
The provisions of the Bill include that a union would be recognized only if it has the support of 75% or more workers and in its absence, a “negotiating council” will be formed.
While the code has retained the employee threshold (for permission before closure, retrenchment etc.) at 100, it has given powers to the government to reduce or increase the threshold. The measures are meant to promote setting up of more enterprises and create jobs. Trade unions had opposed the earlier version of the bill on the matter of reduction in compensation to the retrenched workers.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/explained-the-new-code-to-build-industrial-relations/articleshow/72291080.cms

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6. Enable MSMEs to grow and create jobs

Ajay Shankar | The Hindu Business Line | November 10, 2019

The author expounds that one of the pillars for job creation should be that of enabling the micro, small and the medium enterprises (MSMEs) to grow rapidly. The aforesaid, he says, employs 92 per cent of the workforce in our country.  
Since there are a total of 40 odd labour laws that incur compliance costs on the firms, small firms find the costs of compliance too high and quite often prefer to remain small or open a few more units in other names. Welcoming the Labour Code on Industrial Relations, 2019 Bill, he argues that “converting the over 40 labour laws into the proposed four codes is an overdue reform. Putting in place a social safety net would make the provision of labour market flexibility easier in the new codes. Such flexibility reduces the risk perception in expanding the workforce”.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/enable-msmes-to-grow-and-create-jobs/article29937851.ece


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Grim Stories

7. New hunger games in jobless Bharat

Sayantan Bera | Live Mint |December 18,  2019

The article delineates the grim reality of rural populace in the arid Bundelkhand region spread across the states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, Mint travelled to three districts, Chitrakoot, Banda and Panna. The research was carried out in the wake of a collapse in rural incomes and a de-growth in causal wages, and a survey report leaked by Business Standard showing a significant 9% drop in rural consumption, including on staples, between 2011-12 and 2017-18. The last time a fall in consumption is said to have been recorded half a century ago in the early 1970s.
“With access of jobs and food worsening, there have been frequent reports of starvation deaths from Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.”

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/new-hunger-games-in-jobless-bharat-11576601380302.html

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8. Bhiwandi's Textile Industry Is Struggling and Political Apathy at Poll time Isn't Helping

Sukanya Shantha |The Wire| October 14, 2019

“Locals estimate that over 60% of power looms units have shut down and the rest are also on the verge of closure”.
Up until the late 1990s, the textile industry was booming. The locals are now witnessing it at its worst. “There have been several reasons for the death of Bhiwandi’s textile business, once known as “India’s Manchester”. But the biggest monsters that nearly killed the once-thriving textile industry in the state are the government’s unprecedented demonetization move and the Goods and Service Tax (GST) being slapped on every step of procurement and production of grey, a kind of rough-hewn cloth that is processed into fabric”. Another crucial issue according to the locals is lack of political representation of the weavers’ community; significantly curtailing their bargaining power at both local and Centre levels.
The workers of Bhiwandi affirm, “We are all skilled labourers with a specific knowledge of yarn and cloth-making. But some among us are pushed to working as construction workers or take up menial jobs in garage or hardware shops”.

https://thewire.in/labour/bhiwandis-textile-industry-is-struggling-to-survive-and-political-apathy-isnt-helping


Discourse on Jobs
9. Reduction of handset export incentives to 2 per cent will lead to massive job losses: ICEA

PTI | December 12, 2019

While the mobile handset exports saw an eightfold growth to Rs. 11,200 crore in 2018-19 and exceeded imports for the first time, industry body ICEA, showed concern over reduction of export incentives to 2 per cent and expressed that it will lead to massive job losses. The mobile handset industry currently employs over 6.7 lakh persons.
Currently, mobile phone production in India is 9-12 per cent expensive compared to cost in Vietnam and 19-22 per cent when compared with China, ICEA said. The concern was expressed in the wake of on-going discussions between the government and the industry on the possibility of adopting a WTO-compliant scheme, with the Director General of Foreign Trade surprisingly notifying downward revision of the export incentive.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/reduction-of-handset-export-incentives-to-2-per-cent-will-lead-to-massive-job-losses-icea/articleshow/72495619.cms?from=mdr

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10. Companies are looking to hire digital, new age technology professionals in 2020

Rica Bhattacharyya, Sreeradha D Basu | ET Bureau | December 24, 2019

In an environment of increasing unemployment rates in the country, an apparent approximate of 60,000 job openings are being opened for the top 10 new age tech skills in 2020, based on an estimate by specialist staffing firm Xpheno. These include data analytics, AWS, data science, ML, NLP, data visualisation, IoT, AI and block chain.
The openings are said to be across entry, mid and senior levels with annual remuneration ranging from Rs 3 lakh to over Rs 1crore. According to the survey, some of the biggest and high remuneration openings are with industry leaders such as Accenture, Capgemini, IBM, Dell, and NVIDIA. The funded startups can also be seen competing to get their hands on the best available talent in the market. With companies looking for candidates with these skillsets, the expected hikes in a new job offer range from 35% to 60%, and even a whopping 100%-plus in certain skills like data science and ML.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/companies-looking-to-hire-digital-new-age-technology-professionals-in-2020/articleshow/72945091.cms?from=mdr

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11. India’s organic products exports surge by 50 per cent in 2018-19: APEDA

The Hindu Business Line | October 28, 2019

Indian organic product exports touched the Rs 5151 crore-mark ($757 million) in 2018-19. According to estimates by Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority of India (APEDA), flax seeds, sesame, soybean, tea, medicinal plants, rice and pulses such as arhar and chana were the key organic food products that ushered the jump of nearly 50 per cent growth.
“In terms of commodities oilseeds are the single largest category followed by sugar crops, cereals and millets, fibre crops, pulses, medicinal, herbal and aromatic plants and spices and condiments. The total volume of export during 2018-19 was 6.14 lakh tonnes,” the statement added.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/indias-organic-products-exports-surge-by-50-per-cent-in-2018-19-apeda/article29813745.ece

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12. How India's microenterprises can help solve the country's employment crisis

Shreehari Paliath | IndiaSpend| November 5, 2019

“There is also a problem with women's participation in India's microenterprises: Social and market factors are loaded against them affecting their productivity”
As India struggles with an unemployment crisis, its microenterprises--units with fewer than 20 workers--can become significant engines for job creation, concluded an October 2019 report by Azim Premji University’s Centre for Sustainable Employment and the Global Alliance for Mass Entrepreneurship, looking at all non-farm microenterprises, except the construction sector.
As per 2015 figures cited in the study, women run 20% of all microenterprises, make for 16% of their workforce, and contribute 9% of aggregate value-added in the sector. But in six years to 2015, their share in the ownership of micro units and value added has fallen by two percentage points. “Women tend to operate smaller enterprises, tend to be home-based (which means they cannot expand easily) and tend to work with other women,” said Amit Basole, co-author of the study. “They often do not own assets (such as titles to land or home) that can be collateralized for credit.”

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/how-india-s-microenterprises-can-help-solve-the-country-s-employment-crisis-119110500162_1.html

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13. Adidas Gives up on Robot Factories and Wants Humans in Asia to Make More Shoes

Vishal Mathur | Tech News18 |November 12, 2019

“One would have assumed bringing production closer to the consumers in Europe and US would be more economical and flexible. But we are no experts”.
The footwear brand Adidas has announced the shutting down of it’s the robot factories by April 2020. The factories in Ansbach, Germany, Atlanta, and US will be shut as the company plans to focus more on production at its factories in Asia, particularly China and Vietnam.
Adidas believes they will be able to deploy some of the Speedfactory technologies at its factories in Asia for “better utilization of existing production capacity.” Adidas now says that factories in Asia will be more economical and flexible for business. In 2018, the Clean Clothes Campaign (CCC) report suggested that factories in Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam; producing for Adidas, were not paying workers the minimum wages as mandated by the law. The factory workers’ average salaries are 45 percent to 65 percent below the legal minimum wage, according to the report.

https://www.news18.com/news/tech/adidas-gives-up-on-robot-factories-and-wants-humans-in-asia-to-make-more-shoes-2383395.html

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14. The key to Indian economy is in better wages for the masses (Part 1, 2 & 3)

Pradeep S. Mehta & Abhishek Kumar| Economic Times| October 11, 15, 19, 2019

The three article series reflect on the findings of a research inquiry carried out for understanding structural issues in Textile & Apparel sector. In brief, the findings suggests that there is a need for enlightened enterprises rather than labour reforms because the workers do not necessarily get a good deal which impacts the society, country and economy".
While the first article enunciates the problematique, the remaining two discuss the enterprise and the worker dimension respectively. Put together they aim to create and strengthen the discourse for good and better jobs India.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/the-key-to-indian-economy-is-in-better-wages-for-the-masses/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/the-key-to-indian-economy-is-in-better-wages-for-the-masses-part-2/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/the-key-to-indian-economy-is-in-better-wages-for-the-masses-part-3/

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