The Less Wrong Survey

THIS SURVEY IS CLOSED PLEASE DO NOT SEND IN RESPONSES THANK YOU.

Thank you for taking the Less Wrong Survey. It should take no more than fifteen or twenty minutes, and provide helpful data on the demographics and opinions of Less Wrong community members.

(There are a few floating checkmarks below the section headers, because I couldn't figure out how to make section headers without them officially being a question. Please ignore these. Thank you.)

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******************************SECTION 1: DEMOGRAPHICS**********************************

Gender

Male
Female

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Age

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Professional Status

Select your current professional status

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Degree Status

Select the highest degree you currently have / are working towards

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Expertise

Do you consider yourself fairly knowledgeable on the following topics? Define "fairly knowledgeable" as feeling comfortable having a heavy discussion about it with the local experts on Less Wrong without worrying that you're competely out of your depth.

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Political Views

Please select the best description of your political views.

Libertarian (for example US Libertarian Party; socially permissive, minimal/no taxes, minimal/no redistribution of wealth)
Conservative (for example US Republicans or UK Tories; support "traditional" values, low taxes, low redistribution of wealth)
Liberal (for example, US Democrats and UK Labour; socially permissive, more taxes, more redistribution of wealth)
Socialist (for example Scandinavian countries; socially permissive, high taxes and major redistribution of wealth)
Communist Party (for example former Soviet Union; complete State control of many facets of life, especially economy)
Other:

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Religious Views

For the last two options, define "spiritual" as "believing in some guiding force or power to the universe beyond that currently considered scientifically proven."

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Religious Background

How religious was your family when you were growing up?

Family was extremely religious
Family was about average religiousity
Family was less religious than average
Family was nonreligious
Family was explicitly atheist
Other:

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Religious Background 2

If you answered that your family was religious, what religion were they?

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If unsure or decline to answer, please leave blank. Please give as precise an answer as you have available, but please use only respectable tests (ie no amateur Internet IQ tests, please)

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OB posts

What percentage of the Overcoming Bias posts do you think you've read? (Eliezer has about 700, and Robin probably around the same. If you've read all of Eliezer's but none of Robin's, or vice versa, please mention that in the answer)

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Time in Community

How long, in months, have you been following Overcoming Bias and Less Wrong?

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Time per day

In an average day, how many minutes do you spend on Overcoming Bias and Less Wrong?

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LW Karma

If decline to answer, please leave blank. Be aware it may be easy to identify you from this information. Feel free to add or subtract a few points to make your answer less recognizable; just don't change it significantly.

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******************************SECTION 2: PROBABILITIES**********************************

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Probability: MWI

For this and the following questions, please give your probability estimate for the related propositions, on a scale from 0 (definitely false) to 100 (definitely true). You may (and are encouraged to) use decimals for values less than 1 or greater than 99. The values 0 or 100 will be interpreted as epsilon or 100 - epsilon, for your convenience. If you don't know enough about the proposition to have an opinion, please leave the box blank. For this question, please estimate the probability that the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct.

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Probability: Aliens

What is the probability that nonhuman intelligent life exists in the observable Universe?

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Probability: Aliens 2

In our galaxy?

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Probability: Supernatural

What is the probability that supernatural events, defined as those involving ontologically basic mental entities, have occurred since the beginning of the universe?

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Probability: God

What is the probability there is a God, defined as a supernatural (see above) intelligent entity who created the universe?

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Probability: God 2

What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?

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Probability: Cryonics

What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time?

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Probability: Anti-Agathics

What is the probability that at least one person currently alive will reach an age of greater than 1000?

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Probability: Simulation

What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?

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Probability: Global Warming

What is the probability that significant global warming is occuring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?

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Probability: Existential Risk

What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that kills more than 90% of humans?

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Probability: High IQ

If you gave your IQ above, what is your probability that your IQ will be above the median IQ of people who responded to this survey?

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Singularity: Year

By what year do you think the Singularity will occur (answer such that you think there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after that year. If you don't think a Singularity will ever happen, leave blank.)

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******************************SECTION 3: MISCELLANEOUS**********************************

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Cryonics

Are you signed up for cryonics?

Yes
No, but considering it
No, and don't plan to
No, never thought about it

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Robin vs. Eliezer Singularity

Which vision of the Singularity do you consider more likely?

Robin's: Whole brain emulations gradually reaching singularity status
Eliezer's: A singleton AI suddenly reaching singularity status
No preference / Don't believe in the Singularity

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Classic Prisoner's Dilemma

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma#Generalized_form (use this payoff matrix)

Cooperate
Defect
No preference / Depends / Don't understand

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Eliezer's "True" Prisoner's Dilemma

See http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/true-pd.html (second payoff matrix on this page)

Cooperate
Defect
No preference / Depends / Don't understand

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Charity

True or false: the marginal effect of extra money being given to aid in Africa through charity is generally positive.

True, for most normal charities (eg UNICEF)
Possibly true, but only for a few outstanding charities
False for all charities, or it is prohibitively difficult to identify charities for which it is true.
No opinion

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Counterfactual Mugging

See http://lesswrong.com/lw/3l/counterfactual_mugging/

Give Omega $100
Don't
No preference / Depends / Don't understand

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Existential Risk 2

Which of these potential risks do you think is most likely to cause a catastrophe wiping out >90% of humans before 2100?

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Moral Views

How would you best describe your interpretation of morality?

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Moral value

Which of the following do you believe have significant moral value for their own sake? In particular, which of these would you go out of your way to protect from things you consider bad? A checkmark does not necessarily imply that you believe they have equal moral value, merely some positive moral value.

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Three Worlds Ending

Which ending of Three Worlds Collide did you prefer (morally, not in terms of literary value)?

Superhappies reprogram the human utility function
Humans blow up Huygens
No preference / Didn't read it

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Calibration 1

In what year did Thomas Edison patent the light bulb?

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Calibration 2

On a scale of 0%-100%, how confident are you that you got within 5 years of the correct answer on the above question?

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Private

Check this box to make your responses private; ie exclude them when this data is made public. Keep in mind that although it should in theory be very difficult to identify you from your survey results, it may be possible if you have an unusual answer to certain questions, for example your Less Wrong karma. Please also be aware that even if this box is checked, the person collecting the surveys (Yvain) will be able to see your results (but he will keep them confidential)

Please keep these results private

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