Take on the TNG model! Given our model's picks for each game, enter your own estimate for each of the favorites' chances to win. Your point totals for each game are dependent on how confident you are in your picks. Here are a couple of examples:
Team A is a 57% favorite over Team B
Let's say you think Team A is 'guaranteed' to win, so you enter 100%.
If Team A wins, you would pick up 25 points, while our model would only pick up 6.5 points
If Team A loses, however, you would lose 75 points, while our model would lose just 7.5 points
If you disagree with the model favoring Team A, and you believe Team B will win, you'd simply enter your pick as a number less than 50. For example:
Let's say you think Team B is going to win. You would still enter Team A's chance of winning. If you think Team B is 90% likely to win, then you'd enter 10% on the form for Team A's chances. In that case, here's how the points would be awarded:
If you're correct and Team A loses, you would gain 24 points, while our model would lose 7.5 points
If the model is correct and Team A wins, you would lose 56 points, while our model would gain 6.5 points
For each game, you are simply picking the odds that our model's favorite will win. The more aggressive you are with the percentages you assign to the favorites chances one way or the other, the more points you can win. But, you can potentially lose much more if you are overconfident one way or another and you're wrong.
The idea is to give you a chance to risk more than a simple win/loss pick for each game, which also gives you a chance to win or lose more with each pick.