September 2024 Election Cycle Prediction
Margins are 15+ for safe, 5-15 for likely, 1-5 for lean, and 0-1 for tilt. If you really can't predict then do a tossup rating. The presidential section is the only required section.
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Who would you rather have winning this election? *
How would you rate Alaska on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Arizona on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Colorado on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Florida on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Georgia on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Iowa on the presidential level? *
How would you rate Kansas on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Maine on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Maine's 2nd on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Michigan on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Minnesota on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Missouri on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Montana on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Nebraska's 1st on the presidential level?
Clear selection
How would you rate Nebraska's 2nd on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Nevada on the presidential level?
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How would you rate New Hampshire on the presidential level?
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How would you rate New Jersey on the presidential level?
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How would you rate New Mexico on the presidential level?
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How would you rate North Carolina on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Ohio on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Pennsylvania on the presidential level?
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How would you rate South Carolina on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Texas on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Utah on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Virginia on the presidential level?
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How would you rate Wisconsin on the presidential level?
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There are no questions regarding places that I think will get near universal agreement for being either safe blue (Washington, California, Hawaii, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine's 1st, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, and Oregon) or safe red (Idaho, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska's 3rd, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, Nebraska, and Mississippi). If you don't think that at least one of these states/districts is safe, then please type what your unique predictions are. Otherwise, skip.
Who do you think wins the national popular vote? *
What margin of victory in the popular vote do you think that the popular vote winner will get? It is best to state your predicted popular vote winner alongside your predicted margin. Harris+3 is an acceptable answer. Just saying +3? Not so much. Skip if you don't know.
What is Harris' best case scenario? You don't have to type out every state or district. Instead, it is preferred to state what states or districts you think would flip in a best case Harris scenario, or type an election year+all changes. For example, you could say 2020+NC and FL flipping, or 2020+NC and TX flipping.
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What is Trump's best case scenario? You don't have to type out every state or district. Instead, it is preferred to state what states or districts you think would flip in a best case Trump scenario, or type an election year+all changes.  For example, you could say 2016+NV and NE-02 flipping, or 2016+NV and MN flipping.
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Based on your own current predictions, rank the big 7 (North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona) from bluest to reddest. If you think that any states are tied, then mention any ties here. *
Column 1
Row 1
Who do you think is currently the favorite?
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