Is your set of scenarios valid in 6 questions?
Test if a set of scenarios is sound enough methodologically to allow for the development of strategy and policies
We only collect your email address so that we can send you the results. We shall use anonymised statistics about results to improve understanding on scenarios and their use.

Test created by Dr Helene Lavoix, specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues and lecturer at SciencesPo-PSIA. Beside training and teaching, her current focus is on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Science, and Security.
Email address *
Name of your set of scenarios
Your answer
Are the scenarios covering the whole range of possible futures? *
20 points
Required
Are the scenarios mutually exclusive? *
Mutually exclusive scenarios mean scenarios that cannot take place at the same time. You can have one or another, but not both at the same time.
20 points
Required
Are the scenarios dynamic? *
Scenarios, to be more easily actionable, i.e. to allow you to develop a proper set of responses and actions to handle coming changes, must be dynamic.The scenarios help you identify crucial key points, where decisions are needed. They may develop into sub-scenarios.
15 points
Required
Are the scenarios on the same time horizon? *
What you should get are scenarios that each depict the same timeframe and dynamics. The authors of the scenarios may choose to develop more or less this or that part, but, nonetheless, all timeframes must be covered for each scenario of your set of scenarios.
20 points
Required
Is there a likelihood estimate provided for each scenario? *
This means an evaluation of likelihood accompanies each of the scenarios of the set. As a result, you should know which scenario is more or less likely. We are here, of course, in the realm of estimates, moreover subjective ones. Furthermore, these estimates will vary with time, with your decisions and your actions (and thus help you steer policies). Yet, it does matter that each scenario has an estimate of its likelihood.
15 points
Required
Did I provide the right means for the building of this set of scenarios? *
The conditions you set frame the outcome you obtain.
10 points
Required
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This form was created inside of The Red (Team) Analysis Society.