The Know-Nothing Oscar Pool
I get it. You don't do Oscars pools. "I don't know the movies," you say. "It's not worth the trouble," you say. "Stop putting words in my mouth," you say.

Well, stop talking, because I've got the solution for you. This Oscar pool harnesses the power of probability to ensure that you can play without knowing a damn thing about the films nominated. (In fact, you may be better off that way.)

PICK A FILM in each category.
IF IT LOSES: No points. Sorry, friend.
IF IT WINS: 1/P points, where P was its probability of winning (according to BetFair) just prior to the ceremony. For example, a winner with a 1-in-17 chance of victory is worth 17 points.

The expected value of each pick is equal by design, so GO CRAZY. Pick favorites. Pick underdogs. Pick films with a minimum of vowels. It's all the same on average. If you beat the expected value of 24 points, then you can consider yourself an Oscar-picking genius, no matter your methods.

Odds will change over time, so feel free to COME BACK AND ALTER YOUR PICKS as often as you like. You'll get an email with the link after you finish. Ballots close at 5pm EST on Sunday, March 4th, 2018. Three winners will receive coveted Math with Bad Drawings prizes! See here: https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2018/01/31/the-math-with-bad-drawings-oscar-pool/

The odds below were last updated on January 30. For current probabilities, check here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.132838659.

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