This is a probabilistic IQ test, created by No Ordinary Games.

Human intuition when it comes to questions of probability seems to be fundamentally flawed. Cognitive biases of all sorts awaken at even the simplest hint of randomness, especially when time pressure is added to the mix.

This massive blind spot is often attributed to poor mathematical education. But we could find no evidence to back that claim up. So we thought we'd test it ourselves, with your help. This test is designed to measure the accuracy of your probabilistic intuition. Once the results are in, we will examine if formal mathematical training has an effect on the accuracy of one's probabilistic fast thinking. So, no matter what your academic background is, take the test and help us out. The odds are you'll enjoy it too!

Get comfortable. You 'll need about 10-12 mins. You will be presented with a series of hypothetical situations and asked which of the outcomes -if any- you think is more probable. Read each question twice, slowly and give yourself one minute to consider it and pick an answer. Don't use more than one minute for each question. This is important - just your top-of-the-head reaction is needed.

Good luck!

Flip a coin 5 times. Which is more probable? *

1 point

At some point you'll get the same result at least 3 times in a row

You will NOT get the same result 3 times in a row

It's about 50% - 50%

Put nine red balls and one blue ball in an urn. Shuffle and take out 3 balls at random. Which is more probable? *

1 point

All three balls will be red

One of the three will be blue

It's about 50% - 50%

Roll a 6-sided die. Then roll a 10-sided die. Then roll a 30-sided die. Which is more probable? *

1 point

The three results will be in strictly increasing order

The three results will NOT be in strictly increasing order

It's about 50% - 50%

In a continuous series of coin flips, which sequence is more probable to appear first at some point? *

1 point

The sequence [Heads - Tails]

The sequence [Tails - Tails]

It's about 50% - 50%