This massive blind spot is often attributed to poor mathematical education. But we could find no evidence to back that claim up. So we thought we'd test it ourselves, with your help. This test is designed to measure the accuracy of your probabilistic intuition. Once the results are in, we will examine if formal mathematical training has an effect on the accuracy of one's probabilistic fast thinking. So, no matter what your academic background is, take the test and help us out. The odds are you'll enjoy it too!
Get comfortable. You 'll need about 10-12 mins. You will be presented with a series of hypothetical situations and asked which of the outcomes -if any- you think is more probable. Read each question twice, slowly and give yourself one minute to consider it and pick an answer. Don't use more than one minute for each question. This is important - just your top-of-the-head reaction is needed.