Estimating the Value of Harris vs Trump
One approach to estimate the value of Kamala Harris winning the US Presidential Election instead of Trump is to ask about peoples' willingness to pay to affect the election result. That's what this form does.

All answers may be shared anonymously.
E-Mail-Adresse *
Initial Rough Estimate: How much would you pay (of your money, in USD) to increase the probability that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Presidential Election by 0.0001% (i.e. 1/1,000,000 or 1-in-a-million)? *
Assume that by increasing the probability of Harris winning, the probability of Trump winning decreases by the same amount.

If you would pay to increase the probability of Trump winning and decrease the probability of Harris winning, answer with a negative value.

Answer with the value that represents the most (in magnitude) that you would pay. If you are uncertain, give your under-over price where you are completely unsure whether it's a good purchase (as opposed to thinking you probably paid too much for a 1-in-a-million increase or probably should be willing to pay more for a 1-in-a-million increase in the probability that Harris wins).

Assume that you are the only person paying for this increase. I.e. It is not the case that you and others are chipping in together to increase the probability by 1-in-a-million. Rather, assume that you have a way of increasing the probability of Harris winning by 1-in-a-million at the current margin, and if you alone decide not to take the action and pay the price, then the probability of Harris winning stays at the current odds instead of increases by 1-in-a-million.

Disregard any possibly legal or ethical issues with buying election results. The question is hypothetical.
How good is your estimate above? (Initial Rough Estimate) *
If you were to research this question all day tomorrow, at what price are you 90% confident your updated answer at the end of day tomorrow would not be below (in magnitude)? *
If you were to research this question all day tomorrow, at what price are you 90% confident your updated answer at the end of day tomorrow would not be above (in magnitude)? *
Updated Refined Estimate: How much would you pay (of your money, in USD) to increase the probability that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Presidential Election by 0.0001% (i.e. 1/1,000,000 or 1-in-a-million)? *
Assume that by increasing the probability of Harris winning, the probability of Trump winning decreases by the same amount.

If you would pay to increase the probability of Trump winning and decrease the probability of Harris winning, answer with a negative value.

Answer with the value that represents the most (in magnitude) that you would pay. If you are uncertain, give your under-over price where you are completely unsure whether it's a good purchase (as opposed to thinking you probably paid too much for a 1-in-a-million increase or probably should be willing to pay more for a 1-in-a-million increase in the probability that Harris wins).

Assume that you are the only person paying for this increase. I.e. It is not the case that you and others are chipping in together to increase the probability by 1-in-a-million. Rather, assume that you have a way of increasing the probability of Harris winning by 1-in-a-million at the current margin, and if you alone decide not to take the action and pay the price, then the probability of Harris winning stays at the current odds instead of increases by 1-in-a-million.

Disregard any possibly legal or ethical issues with buying election results. The question is hypothetical.
How good is your estimate above? (Updated Refined Estimate) *
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