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Estimating the Value of Harris vs Trump
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Initial Rough Estimate: How much would you pay (of your money, in USD) to increase the probability that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Presidential Election by 0.0001% (i.e. 1/1,000,000 or 1-in-a-million)?
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How good is your estimate above? (Initial Rough Estimate)
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If you were to research this question all day tomorrow, at what price are you 90% confident your updated answer at the end of day tomorrow would not be below (in magnitude)?
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If you were to research this question all day tomorrow, at what price are you 90% confident your updated answer at the end of day tomorrow would not be above (in magnitude)?
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Updated Refined Estimate: How much would you pay (of your money, in USD) to increase the probability that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Presidential Election by 0.0001% (i.e. 1/1,000,000 or 1-in-a-million)?
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How good is your estimate above? (Updated Refined Estimate)
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