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The Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communicationwintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk
‘I had prostate cancer seven years. My chance of survival in the US is 82%; my chance of survival if I was here in England is below 50%.’
He was quoting 5-year survival figures for prostate cancer in the US and UK. From these, Giuliani concluded that treatment for prostate cancer is better in the US than in the UK.
Why is it wrong to draw this conclusion from 5 year survival figures alone?
He asks you: ‘Is there reason to think that screening saves lives?’
What evidence do you need to answer Wilfred's question?
What statistic is being reported here?
Unusually, a lot of the coverage also quoted the researchers pointing out that: ‘For every 10,000 women who take HRT pills, there are just nine extra cases of clots every year.’
This number is helpful. What is it?
Odds ratios are calculated by comparing two simple odds. What are the simple odds of throwing a 6 with a fair dice?
The relative risk was widely reported: eating processed meat associated with 18% greater risk of bowel cancer.
In general, we can expect 6 out of every 100 people to get bowel cancer. So out of 100 people who regularly eat bacon, roughly how many would we expect to get bowel cancer?
Clinical trials found that 10% of untreated patients with osteoporosis sustained a hip fracture during a 3 year monitoring period, compared with 5% of the patients who took the new drug every day over the same period.
What number of patients need to be treated with the drug to prevent one hip fracture?
Mia is upset, but she knows that screening tests are not infallible.
According to the current NHS screening leaflet, what proportion of women with a positive mammogram do in fact have breast cancer?
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