Task: Guess the effects of registration on medical ps. [See short description here http://www.columbia.edu/~mh2245/p/2pager.pdf]

We want to figure out whether the introduction of registration requirements affected the types of statistics published in medical journals. We have the data but we have not looked at it yet. To avoid doing the kind of data fishing that many hope registration will prevent we are registering our analysis plan before we start. See details here http://www.columbia.edu/~mh2245/p/

One innovation of this project is that we want to figure out what we learn about registration relative to current beliefs. What do you expect we will find? Has there been an effect or not?

Here you can give us your best guess for:

(i) the difference in the share of p values just below 0.05 before and after 2005 and

(ii) the difference in the share of all p values below 0.001 before and after 2005.

And for the more intrepid we ask that you also provide a full specification of your *prior* (current) beliefs as well as an indication of your belief about the appropriate classical test.

We want to figure out whether the introduction of registration requirements affected the types of statistics published in medical journals. We have the data but we have not looked at it yet. To avoid doing the kind of data fishing that many hope registration will prevent we are registering our analysis plan before we start. See details here http://www.columbia.edu/~mh2245/p/

One innovation of this project is that we want to figure out what we learn about registration relative to current beliefs. What do you expect we will find? Has there been an effect or not?

Here you can give us your best guess for:

(i) the difference in the share of p values just below 0.05 before and after 2005 and

(ii) the difference in the share of all p values below 0.001 before and after 2005.

And for the more intrepid we ask that you also provide a full specification of your *prior* (current) beliefs as well as an indication of your belief about the appropriate classical test.