Lundaloppet predictive challenge 2017 - Forecasting with uncertainty
Guess your time in Lundaloppet 2017 and express your uncertainty in your running time in which way you want!

After the race and the actual time is known, you will be asked to send us your time and we will evaluate the performance of your prediction. The results will be presented at a seminar before summer, where we will hand out uncertainty awards to winners in different categories.

This challenge is organized by the research group UnEviL (Uncertainty and Evidence Lab) at the Lund University Centre of Environmental and Climate research. The purposes are to highlight what it means to forecast with uncertainty and collect examples of how people prefer to express uncertainty.

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Guess your running time!
You can express your uncertainty in your running time in which way you want.

Describe your uncertainty in a qualitative or quantitative way.

Quantitative ways to express uncertainty can for example be a point estimate, an expectation and other statistical measures, probabilities, a full probability distribution, an interval, a guessed random sample, a drawing of your uncertainty distribution, a guess backed up by some process model, or mixtures thereof.

Send any drawings or more complex answers directly to

Make your guess with uncertainty
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