Can crypto-twitter OSINT outperform the WSJ’s chain analysis?  

On October 10, following the attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians, Angus Berwick and Ian Talley of the WSJ published the article “Hamas Militants Behind Israel Attack Raised Millions in Crypto” (archive, PDF link). The WSJ followed up with “Why Hamas Uses Crypto to Raise Money” (archive) and then published an op-ed from Sen. Elizabeth Warren entitled “Cryptocurrency Feeds Hamas’s Terrorism”. Sen. Warren then wrote a letter to the White House and Treasury signed by over 100 members of Congress, reliant entirely on the WSJ claim that Hamas and affiliates had raised “over $130m in crypto” to fund their operations since 2021. Warren is now leading a campaign to aggressively marginalize the crypto industry in the US based on her provocative claim. Yet – subsequent evidence thrown cast her entire empirical basis into question. The WSJ has thus far refused to update or retract their story. 

Since the WSJ article, both Chainalysis and Elliptic have cast the reporting into doubt. 

Starting with the resources listed below, and any other information you can gather, replicate the work done by Elliptic and BitOK, and critically evaluate either the WSJ reporting or the Warren letter. Use chain analysis tools and conventional reporting techniques. Focus on knowable ground truths. Your reporting can focus on debunking a specific detail of the story, creating an independent, more fact-based account of the events, creating a data visualization, or simply creating a meme or graphic depicting the events or the WSJs reporting. 

In one week from today (i.e., on Thursday, 11/02/23), 21 of the best, qualifying submissions will each receive $500 in Bitcoin. 

Here’s what we know:

• Elliptic initially claimed July 2023 that PIJ had received $93m based on addresses disclosed in this Israel counter terror seizure order.
• BitOK claimed $41m to Hamas based on addresses disclosed in two other Israeli counter terror seizure orders [1] [2]
• The WSJ released their first article on the topic citing both Elliptic and BitOK
• Elizabeth Warren wrote her letter which was signed by >100 members of congress, citing the WSJ article exclusively
• Chainalysis released a blog questioning the methodology without referencing either provider directly
• Elliptic released a follow up disputing the WSJ’s approach and the Warren letter
• BitOK releases clarification on their own methodology
• The WSJ has refused to retract, with journalist Ian Talley returning to Twitter to double down on his reporting, even after his major source Elliptic cast the reporting into doubt
• In the Senate hearing on Oct 26, numerous Senators and witnesses continued to question the WSJ/Warren claim that crypto had funded “over $130m” in donations to Hamas or affiliates

Your task is to investigate and characterize the addresses from each of the three Israeli seizure orders, and determine the veracity of the WSJ/Warren claims. For instance, an analysis could involve determining whether the addresses correspond to the touted organizations, or whether they are unaffiliated, omnibus exchange wallets. The objective is an independent, OSINT estimate of the funds moving on-chain and how they relate to the actual terror organizations in question. Use data visualization if necessary. Other work products that help us understand the totality of the story will also be accepted as submissions. 

Can Bitcoin Twitter come up with a better tally than Talley?

Rules: 

• Submissions must include a tweet in the announcement thread, but parallel entries must be made on the google form.
  
• Winning entries are based not on likes but on my discretion, although votes will be indicative of quality
• Payouts will be $500 in Bitcoin based on the USD price of Bitcoin on 10/26/23
• 21 payouts will be made. One entry per person. Must have a google account to participate.
• Entries can be text, image, or video. Entries must pertain to the prompt.
• I need to be able to publicly credit you for your answer (so I can prove that payouts have been made)
• You need to submit answers via tweet in this thread (but you can link to content on a third party site within the tweet)

Update 10/26/23: the bounty pot is overfunded. I will be increasing the number of bounties from 21, or increasing the payout size for exceptional responses.