Dear expert,

The simulator computes a monthly balance of long-range strikes and defences: stocks, production, imports, employment tempo, interceptor expenditure and neutralisation rates for both sides. The outputs are an index of effective penetrations and the ratio of capabilities out to 2030.

In the evidence passport every quantity carries an evidence class. Ukrainian interception coefficients are calibrated on observed series: 23–33% against ballistic, 76–79% against cruise, 88–92% against drones. Almost everything else is a MODEL ASSUMPTION: interceptor expenditure per target, the effectiveness of Russian air defence (no open series exists at all), the share taken by the non-missile base layer, the channel-utilisation coefficient under saturation raids, the number of hits needed to disable a facility, and delivery-probability multipliers by contract status.

Separately: the production capacity of the «Flamingo» cruise missile is flagged as CONFLICT with a range from 6 to 200 units per month — the single largest uncertainty in the whole construction.

This survey exists to convert those quantities from one team’s estimate into a median and a spread across a group of experts. We deliberately do not ask you to estimate stocks of specific systems: those rest on intelligence not available in open sources. We ask instead about the coefficients that determine how those stocks turn into outcomes.

Completion takes about 17 minutes. Answer only where you are competent: every question offers «not my domain».

What we do with the answers. We publish only anonymised and only in aggregate: the median and the interquartile range. Structural comments are not aggregated numerically — they go into the model’s list of limitations.

The most valuable answer for us is not agreement, but specific disagreement with an explanation of the mechanism.

With respect,
The Advanter Group team