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Predictions for 2024
Below are predictions for 2024 - Respond Yes for predictions you expect will happen and No for predictions you don't expect to happen. Responses will be kept anonymous and at the end of 2024 a gift will be awarded to whoever answers the most correctly. 
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The standard deviation (normal distribution) of public SaaS multiples - companies included in the WCLD index - will be higher as of 12/31/2024 than as of 12/31/2023
Clear selection
Layoffs in tech (as counted by the layoffs.fyi tracker) will accelerate in 2024, testing Q1'23 peaks 
Clear selection
Down-rounds as a percentage of total VC fundraising rounds (as defined by Pitchbook) will increase to 25% of total fundraises in 2024, even above the 10-year high of 17% seen in Q3'23. 
Clear selection
Total dollars investing in growth equity (as defined by Pitchbook) will be at least 30% higher in 2024 than in 2023
Clear selection
Total dollars deployed by Private Equity (as defined by Pitchbook) will be at least 20% higher in 2024 than they were in 2023 
Clear selection
The total number of unicorns globally (as defined by CB Insights) will be lower as of 12/31/2024 than they were as of 12/31/2023
Clear selection
The total number of unicorns birthed in 2024 will be higher than the total number of unicorns birthed in 2023 (as defined by CB Insights)
Clear selection
The top 5 LLMs will have over 80% of total U.S. LLM market share (as defined by dollars/usage, whichever is available) by 12/31/2024
Clear selection
H100 spot prices will be lower as of 12/31/2024 than as of 12/31/2023
Clear selection
The U.S. will enter a recession at some point in 2024
Clear selection
Would love to hear any commentary you have on the trends above or if there are any predictions you have for 2024!

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