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2024 Election Forecasting Contest
Please enter your predictions as probabilities from 0 to 1, NOT as percentages from 0-100%.

I've also included links to the Manifold and Polymarket markets for each question, in case you want to see their current prices. Note that every question is "Probability that the Democrats will win X". Each one will resolve YES if the Democrats win, and NO if anything else happens (Republicans win, third party wins, tie, giant meteor hits Earth, etc). Two of the Manifold markets (Senate and popular vote)  are asking the opposite question (probability Republicans/Trump win), so if you look at those markets for reference make sure you don't get confused. When I record those market predictions I'll be taking 1 minus their price.

If you have any questions you can reach me by email at mikest@udel.edu or leave a commend on the announcement post here. Thanks and good luck!
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What's your name? (I won't publish your name without your permission) *
What's your email address? *
Are you ok with your name being published on my blog if you win? *
Probability that the Democrats win the Presidency (Manifold, Polymarket): *
Probability that the Democrats win the Senate (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the House (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Popular Vote (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Alaska (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Arizona (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Florida (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Georgia (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Iowa (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Maine, statewide (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Michigan (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Minnesota (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Nebraska NE-2 (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Nevada (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in New Hampshire (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in New Mexico (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in North Carolina (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Ohio (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Pennsylvania (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Texas (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Virginia (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the presidency in Wisconsin (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Arizona (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Florida (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Maryland (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Michigan (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Montana (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Nevada (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in New Mexico (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Ohio (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Pennsylvania (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Texas (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the Senate race in Wisconsin (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the governor race in Montana (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the governor race in New Hampshire (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the governor race in Vermont (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the AK-01 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the AZ-01 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the AZ-06 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the CA-13 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the CA-22 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the CA-41 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the IA-01 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the IA-03 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the NY-04 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the NY-17 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the NY-19 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the OR-05 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the PA-10 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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Probability that the Democrats win the WA-03 House race (Manifold, Polymarket):
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