Dear expert,

The model looks at Ukrainian–Polish relations through two lenses. The first is «Economy × Politics»: four scenarios from «Strategic tandem» to «Neighbourly cold war». The second is «Russian pressure × EU resilience»: from «Shared trench» to «Softening». In each lens seven triggers shift the scenario weights, and for three actors — the EU, Poland and Ukraine — the model computes favourability sub-indices across four dimensions: security, economy, European integration, stability.

All the numbers here are expert judgements. Base weights with neutral triggers in the first lens: cold pragmatism 40%, neighbourly cold war 25%, diplomatic façade 20%, strategic tandem 15%. The trigger weights, the sensitivity coefficient and the 1–5 favourability scores on each of the four dimensions are expert judgements too. An actor's composite index is a simple average of the four sub-indices; whether they can be averaged at all is a separate question.

This survey exists to convert the base weights, trigger weights and favourability scores from one team's estimate into a median and a spread across a group of experts, and to check whether a dimension that actually drives the relationship has been left out.

Completion takes about 14 minutes. Answer only where you are competent: every question offers «not my domain». We deliberately survey both Ukrainian and Polish experts — the divergence between the two subgroups is as valuable to us as the median.

What we do with the answers. We publish only anonymised and only in aggregate: the median and the interquartile range as the interval of expert disagreement.

The most valuable answer for us is not agreement, but specific disagreement with an explanation of the mechanism.

With respect,
The Advanter Group team