CHAMPIONSHIP DIVISION

*disclaimer: some “vs. Championship teams” data may be slightly inaccurate, as it was compiled before Dragons dropped to Open*

POOL W

Warriors

Record: 12-0

vs. Championship teams: 9-0

The Warriors come into Nationals undefeated and the odds-on favorite to go back-to-back as club champions.

The case For: They just keep winning, and mostly without too much trouble. Only two of their 12 wins were within 80 points. Upset-resistant and 9-3 in catches on the season (shoutout to Seattle for 2 of those, by the way), not many teams even pose a threat.

The case Against: Those two games within 80 points? Both against Boom Train, both decided by less than 20 points. They came away with the win both times, of course, but Boom has pushed them to the brink and will be itching to put the Warriors away next time. The only other team I can see challenging them is Bosny. Perhaps in a poetic twist of fate, the original geographically diverse superteam could take down the latest? But if March Madness this year has taught me anything, it’s that the overall favorite to win a tournament is often a favorite for good reason.

District of Columbia QC

Record: 11-5

vs. Championship teams: 3-5

One of the hottest teams of last year, DCQC has cooled off a little bit this year. They picked up a slew of regular-season wins over Monuments and Earth Wake, with their three top-level wins coming against Slice and Reapers twice, all in decently close games. Losses to TCQC and Black Pandas stand out as games DC would have really liked to win. A pot 2 team, DC gets a potentially tough draw with a red-hot Slice team as their pot 3 team. This game could be a marquee matchup on Saturday, with DC striving to hold seed and prove that they still have some of that magic from last year that brought them to the quarterfinals.

New York Slice

Record: 12-6

vs. Championship teams: 4-5

Slice’s performance at Nationals will be a big tell as to if they’ve truly improved over the course of the season, or just played weaker opponents later in the year, and I’m personally inclined to believe the former. They had a relatively weak CCI North and NERC, with inauspicious results like 40-135 vs. Pandas, 20-215 vs. Boom Train, and 100-145 vs. “Skyline” (their sole unranked loss on the season). However, they’ve gone 8-0 in the 2024 calendar year, beating competitive division teams like Orlando, SWA, and Chicago (twice), and only allowing more than 70 points once in this span. Also across this stretch, they’ve gone 7-0-1 on flag catches, which is a majorly impressive track record. Looking upset-resistant, I like Slice’s odds to make a good run into the bracket this year, with the first step toward this being a big match vs. pot 2 DCQC on Saturday.

Chicago United

Record: 17-6

vs. Championship teams: 5-5

I want to be excited about Chicago United, I really do. And I am unequivocally excited about a team embracing regular season activity and local league structures.^[1] But their 17-6 record, and even their 5-5 record against Championship teams, both slightly oversell this team’s accomplishments, partially due to said league structure. 4 of their 5 wins against the field have come against Apollos, and 15 of their 17 total wins have come against Apollos / Demons / Brew City / Banshees, the latter of which they also dropped a game to. I’m also concerned about their recent 115-10 loss to Slice. To their credit, however, they have a nice win over SWA and have shown an ability to pull out the victory in close games. All this to say, Chicago has had a very good season for a mid-level club team and should look to see if they can snag a program-defining win at Nationals.

Southwest Alliance

Record: 4-9

vs. Championship teams: 3-9

Last year, SWA rolled up to Nationals as a pot 5 team, scored two upsets (on paper, at least), and made it to day 2 before bowing out in round one of the bracket to Bosny. This year, they come in once again as a pot 5 team with just a handful of wins over other pot 5 teams (Mile High and Pegasus (x2)). They’ve set the precedent for themself, now can they repeat their performance in what looks to be a tougher pool? I think their game against Chicago could be very close, but taking down Slice or DCQC (or Warriors) is a big ask. One fun fact to note about SWA this season: they have won every game in which they catch save for one, and lost every game where they don’t catch. So it seems to me like they should try extra hard to catch if they want to recapture some of that magic from last year.

Only Vaguely Bold Pool Prediction:

Warriors 4-0

Slice 3-1

DCQC 2-2

Chicago 1-3

SWA 0-4

POOL X

Bosnyan Bearsharks

Record: 20-3

vs. Championship teams: 15-3

Unlike some previous years, Bosny has consistently shown up and impressed in the regular season this time around. A 20-3 record looks very good, and holds up under closer inspection. Their two losses to Boom have been redeemed by later wins at HVI and (unofficially) at Cherry Blossom Classic. Additionally, they’ve largely avoided close games against slightly weaker teams, taking only comfortable wins over Pandas, Reapers, DC, TCQC, and Lost Boys. This dominance bodes well for their longevity in the tournament; avoiding upset losses should mean a relatively clean path to a semifinal date with, most likely, either Boom Train or Heat. From there, it would be two tough but winnable games to hoist the trophy – a large ask, but perhaps more attainable than ever for a program that would love to take it all home for the first time.

Bay Area Breakers

Record: 11-4

vs. Championship teams: 7-4

There’s been a changing of the guard in the West: the Breakers are the new team to beat. Finishing the regular season with a 3-0 record over the Lost Boys, they’ve dethroned the former West powerhouse as the premiere team in the region. Even some of their losses were noteworthy performances: 120-165 vs. Boom, 110-145 vs. TCQC, and 115-120 vs. Reapers. They’re two flipped catches and a goal away from a 14-1 record. That one other loss, however, is a somewhat eyebrow-raising 125-170 loss to Seattle. (It wouldn’t be the West without some ambiguity in results.) The pot 2 team in Pool X, Breakers will look to prove to themselves (and to all regions outside of the West) that they aren’t a team to be taken lightly, and it all starts with a revenge game against Reapers in pools.

Carolina Reapers

Record: 13-6

vs. Championship teams: 7-6

A (technically) new club team, Reapers have had similar results to their spiritual / geographical predecessors in Terminus. They’ve comfortably taken care of weaker club teams like Earth Wake, Monuments, Apollos, and Dragons, but they have mixed results against other mid-high tier teams. They’re up 1-0 over each of Pandas / Lost Boys / Breakers, but have dropped both of their games to DCQC in fairly close fashion. Beneficiaries of Dragons dropping from their pool, Reapers should only have to take care of business against Orlando to guarantee a spot in the bracket. However, assuming other games go to seed, the loser of the Reapers - Breakers rematch gets a likely date with the loser of Boom - Heat. Neither of these teams is a team Reapers will want to face in the first round, making that game vs. Breakers at the end of Saturday a must-watch game.

Orlando QC

Record: 5-5

vs. Championship teams: 3-5

Orlando come into Nationals with a fairly sparse resume, having only played 10 games, but they’ve still managed to accumulate a few good results. Namely, they’re up 2-0 on SWA and 1-0 on Chicago, and have comfortably dispatched Cat 5 twice. However, I’m not seeing anything in their results that indicates they can hang with the top dogs: they’ve suffered some very convincing losses to Heat, TCQC, and most notably, a Slice team that’s closer to their level than those other two. Additionally, they stand as the only team to lose to Pegasus this season (albeit next goal wins). With Dragons dropping from their pool, it gets much harder for Orlando to get a win. But on the bright side, getting just one win gets them to day 2. Often touted as a good seeking team, could they keep a game close enough to where a crucial pull sends them straight to bracket play?

Not Bold Pool Prediction:

Bosny 3-0

Breakers 2-1

Reapers 1-2

Orlando 0-3

POOL Y

Boom Train

Record: 23-4

vs. Championship teams: 15-4

Just like last year, Boom Train paces the field in terms of games played, clocking in at 27 official games, 4 more than the next highest tally. Only 4 of those games have been losses: one to Bosny, one to Black Pandas, and two to Warriors. The loss to Pandas can be partially chalked up to a large sample size, although it does show a chink in the otherwise fairly sturdy armor. But of their losses, I’m most interested in the Warriors games. Crucially, despite both results panning out against them, Boom is the only team to play Warriors close this season, and they’ve done it twice. Should things go to seed in pools, and should Boom beat Bosny in the semis (definitely not a given, but also very possible), they’ll get a third crack at Warriors in the finals. Could the third time be the charm?

THC Heat

Record: 9-3

vs. Championship teams: 9-3

I don’t think I’m alone in wondering where exactly this Heat team lies within the hierarchy of club teams. There are signs of the championship Heat team of old: 235-70 over DCQC, 175-90 over Reapers, continuous dominance over SWA and Pegasus. But the elephant in the room that points toward a different Heat team is being down 1-2 in the season series vs. TCQC. Is this Heat team more fallible than those of past seasons? Or is TCQC simply their kryptonite? Or are we reading too much into the two close losses, and should we be paying more attention to that one 175-70 win? (Heat are leading the season series if you only look at point differential across the three games.) Only time will tell, and only Heat can answer these questions for us. Their clash against Boom Train in pools is shaping up to be the Big Game of the day, and might just set the tone for the rest of their tournament.

Seattle Sirens

Record: 9-5

vs. Championship teams: 6-5

Last year, Seattle snagged one of the bigger upsets of Nationals with a pool play win over Lost Boys, but barely missed out on making the bracket at a 2-2 record due to tiebreakers. This year, they come in seeded to make the bracket, and have given every reason that they can live up to that expectation. They’ve pretty cleanly established themselves as the #3 club in the West behind Breakers and Lost Boys, but also lay claim to a very nice 170-125 win over Breakers. Additionally, they have no bad losses on the season, losing only to Warriors as well as the aforementioned top West pair. While I’m sure they’d love to riff on their performance from last year and upset Boom or Heat, I think it’s more likely they finish 2-2, which likely sets them up for a bracket game against Slice or DCQC. Beating either of those teams would be a huge win for both Seattle and the West as a whole.

Ohio Apollos

Record: 7-11

vs. Championship teams: 0-7

Making the jump from Open to Competitive this season, Apollos will take on the challenge and see if they can grab a win in the much tougher division. They’ve tested themselves in the regular season by playing 18 games, but unfortunately come in with 0 wins against fellow competitive division teams and 4 losses to Open-level teams (Dragons / Brew Cities / Banshees (x2)). They also have only caught one flag all season. To me, their most promising result is a 90-80 loss to Chicago United. If they’re going to get a win, it just might be a low-scoring, defensive, 45-minute affair with neither team catching the flag. They should be circling their game against Mile High as their big game of the weekend (more on that below).

Mile High QC

Record: 4-13

vs. Championship teams: 0-12

Mile High returns to the club competitive division for the third straight season, and to me, the storyline for them is their quest to win a game at Nationals. They’ve gone a combined 0-8 in the previous two USQ Cups, but they could have their best chance yet this year. Their ‘23-’24 season features a good handful of losses to teams like Seattle and Vipers in which Mile High caught the flag but lost by 2 to 6 goals (-5 to -9 QPD, for those of you keeping score at home). To me, this shows their formula towards a win: slow it down, keep the game low-scoring into S.o.P., and secure that catch. I’m looking forward to their game against Apollos in pools – this is that type of cross-regional matchup between two teams of a similar level that I love to see as a quadball nerd who loves connectivity in results. And more importantly for Mile High, this will be a huge opportunity to finally get that win.

Not Particularly Bold but Not Fully Chalk Pool Prediction:

Boom 4-0

Heat 3-1

Seattle 2-2

Mile High 1-3

Apollos 0-4

POOL Z

Twin Cities QC

Record: 12-6

vs. Championship teams: 10-6

This season, TCQC has ascended from being a gatekeeper team to fully joining the upper echelon of the club division. They’re battle-tested against the top teams, and have beaten many of them (Pandas, DCQC, Breakers, Lost Boys). Their 6 losses have come only against the best of the best: Warriors, Bosny (twice), Boom Train (twice), and Heat. However, they also have not one but two program-defining wins this season, both coming against Heat (at two different tournaments). These wins go to show that TCQC has it in them to compete with nearly every program in the country, and could find themselves staring at a semifinal berth – or maybe with some bracket luck and big wins, a finals appearance?– if they play to their peak this weekend.

Lost Boys QC

Record: 16-7

vs. Championship teams: 11-7

The Lost Boys have had an interesting season so far, but from their perspective, not in the fun way. By all means, this team is still very good – 11-7 against championship teams is not a fluke. However, their record against their upstate rivals, the Breakers, is a clean 0-3. And how have they fared out of region?, you may ask. Well, against Championship teams from outside the West, they’re 0-4, losing to Bosny, Warriors, Reapers, and TCQC. All we can say definitively is that they’re #2 in the West, holding an undefeated record over the likes of Seattle, Vipers, and Mile High. How this translates into performance against TCQC and Pandas in their pool, I do not know and am eager to see. And while it feels a bit like an overplayed narrative, it also does sometimes hold true that Lost Boys start out the day slow (see: last year’s first-game loss to Seattle). While Pegasus seems to be an easy draw on paper for the first game of the day, the Lost Boys better make sure they don’t fall into the trap of a self-fulfilling self-deprecating narrative.

Boston Pandas

Record: 9-8

vs. Championship teams: 5-8

[author’s note: this blurb is brief because I am biased and don’t know what else to say]

It’s been an up-and-down season for the Pandas. The highs have been high: wins over Slice and DCQC at CCI North (Collar City), and particularly of note, a win over Boom Train at NERC – the only team to beat them other than Warriors or Bosny. But the lows have also been low: 0-4 against Bosny on the year, and decisive losses to TCQC and Reapers at CCI South (Crescent City). It’s clear the potential is there, they just need to bring some of that northern tournament energy to Round Rock.

Silicon Valley Vipers

Record: 7-8

vs. Championship teams: 2-8

Vipers seem to be the clear-cut #4 in the West this season, going a collective 0-7 against the top 3 teams in the region but 3-0 against Mile High and SLC Hive. Their other win against a competitive division club is a 170 - 115 defeat of Pegasus, which sets the stage nicely for Vipers to reassert their dominance when the teams rematch in pool play. In order to break seed, they’d have to snag an upset over one of TCQC / Black Pandas / Lost Boys. Unfortunately for them, in order to make said upset, they’d probably need to catch the flag, which they’ve only done twice^[2] this season. But with a couple of close-ish losses in spite of this, maybe they can simply score a bunch of goals and win that way?

Pegasus QC

Record: 1-9

vs. Championship teams: 1-8

The lowest-ranked team in the division according to the USQ rankings, Pegasus boast just one regular-season win which, perhaps fittingly, came by one goal over Orlando. They also have an “unranked” loss to Hive in the loss column next to 8 other games that didn’t end particularly close. On paper, this is not a strong resume, but you know what they say: don’t mess with Texas. Perhaps they’ll be able to leverage some home-state advantage and parlay that into doubling (or even tripling?) their win total.

Decently Bold Pool Prediction:

TCQC 4-0

Pandas 3-1

Lost Boys 1-3

Vipers 1-3

Pegasus 1-3

Kinda Bold? Bracket Prediction

1. Warriors

2. Bosny

T-3. Boom

T-3. TCQC

T-5. Heat

T-5. Breakers

T-5. Slice

T-5. Pandas

T-9. Lost Boys

T-9. Reapers

T-9. Seattle

T-9. DCQC