Concacaf Gold Cup 2023:

Preview and Predictions

June 21, 2023

The 2023 edition of the Concacaf Gold Cup is upon us!  While some may question the true importance of this competition, it is invaluable to the growth of the game for many of our member nations.  

If you don’t care at all about my writing, I don’t blame you!  Jump to Page 10 to just see my tournament predictions.  

A quick google or Twitter search will provide a wealth of information about Mexico, the US, and Canada’s preparation and outlook heading into this four week-long competition.  But there are 25 nations heading to the United States and Canada for the 17th chapter of Concacaf’s regional showcase.  13 nations automatically qualified for the final tournament and have known their pathway to lifting what is the most obnoxious trophy in sport.  Trinidad & Tobago have been slotted into Nicaragua’s spot in Group A, thanks to the latter’s ban due to the usage of an unregistered player.  12 teams convened at Messi’s Mecha, Fort Lauderdale’s DRV Pink Stadium, with Antigua & Barbuda scrambling to pull together a squad for their match against Guadeloupe last Friday.  The Benna Boys found out Tuesday morning that they’d been offered T&T’s spot in the preliminary tournament and, thanks to an assist from American Airlines, available players from their pool took the next flight from the Caribbean, US, and England in (now dashed) hopes of joining Group A at the final tournament.  

Stories like these are what make Concacaf the shithousing capital of the soccer world.  I’m writing this preview because this tournament is about so much more than a US-Mexico crash course.  Aside from the World Cup, this is my personal favorite soccer competition.  It’s a whimsical amalgamation of this region’s inequality.  Champions League wingers running at mailmen.  Premier League goalkeepers conceding to school teachers.  Some players are working towards earning a spot on a future World Cup roster, with others using the Gold Cup as a chance to seek asylum and never wear their nation’s shirt again.  But within the 120x80, these 25 nations each were given a chance to earn Concacaf’s crown on July 16th.

Let’s take a look at the field of participants, from the favorites down to the minnows.  You’ll see longer previews among the contenders, but I’ve done my best to provide some insight into the rest of the already qualified teams.  

The Favorites

Mexico

El Tri enters the Gold Cup in one of their most tumultuous periods of the century.  The old guard has taken its final bow, with the likes of Andres Guardado and Hector Herrera no longer being counted on as they were for the last 15 years.  Mexico did not have to face "la maldición del quinto partido" - the “curse of the fifth game” - in Qatar, thanks to a disappointing exit in the group stage of World Cup 2022.  Diego Cocca has been sacked after the 3-0 drubbing at the hands of the US, and they’ll now be led by interim coach Jimmy Lozano.

With the turnover both on the field and in the technical area, you should expect to see a much different version of El Tri in this tournament.  Tactically, Cocca’s mentality was much different than his predecessors.  Defensive shape and patient build-up are not terms we’ve been accustomed to hearing in Mexican pressers, but we saw a much more pragmatic approach under Cocca than past Mexico teams.  

In reality, this style suits the player pool better; the strength of the Mexican side is between the goalkeeper and the 6.  Guillermo Ochoa retains his starting role, while Cesar Montes and Johan Vazquez are a proven CB pairing in front of him.  A group of very talented outside backs, headlined by Ajax’s Jorge Sanchez, Monterrey’s Jesus Gallardo, and Genk’s Gerardo Arteaga, should contribute both defensively and in the final third.  And Mexico’s best player, Edson Alvarez, anchors the midfield as the engine of the Mexican machine.  

The turnover will be most distinguishable in the furthest advanced positions.  Luis Romo, Charly Rodriguez, and Orbelin Pineda have been around for a while, but they’ve mostly taken up roles alongside the aforementioned Herrera and Guardado.  Expect to see the creative Sebastian Cordova, fresh off of his critical contributions to Tigres’ Clausura title, injected into an otherwise bland midfield group.  Alexis Vega’s injury doubts are a huge blow to Mexico’s plans, likely giving Erick Sanchez and Uriel Antuna a much heavier load than they’d expected.  At striker, it seems like this is Santi Gimenez’s big opportunity to grab the #9 shirt moving forward, and he is flying high after a productive season with Feyenoord.  

All things considered, this is the strongest team coming to the Gold Cup.  Anything short of lifting the trophy in Inglewood next month will be considered a massive disappointment, and while pressure like that is par for the course in Mexico, this is a group of players that has experienced effectively zero success in El Tri colors.  And now with Cocca’s departure, who knows what to expect from the Mexicans.

United States

The defending champion US team will be without nearly all of their first-choice players, trotting out what could fairly be described as a “B” team.  That “A” team just earned their second-straight CNL title with dominant performances over Mexico and Canada. But this will be a young, creative side nonetheless.  Keep in mind, though, similar conclusions were drawn prior to the 2021 tournament, where a rotated US squad defeated a much more esteemed Mexico 1-0 in the final.  BJ Callaghan, the caretaker for the caretaker, finds himself leading the stars and stripes into a second title defense this month.

From the back end, the undisputed #1 goalkeeper in the player pool, Matt Turner, provides comfort to an otherwise unproven squad and coach.  Rumors indicate that Turner may be taking a backup role for this tournament at times, with the up-and-coming Chelsea goalkeeper Gaga Slonina joining the senior team after strong performances at the U20 World Cup.  Either way, you’ll see a talented player between the sticks for this team.  In defense, the scorer of the 2021 final’s only goal, Miles Robinson, will certainly be the first name on the team sheet if healthy.  His partner in central defense remains to be determined, though it will likely be an experienced player like Matt Miazga or Aaron Long.  DeJuan Jones has been one of the best left backs in MLS in recent seasons, and John Tolkin will be battling for minutes at that spot as well.  DeAndre Yedlin is a known commodity at right back, though BJ may opt for the younger Bryan Reynolds at that spot.

In the midfield, Gold Cup veterans James Sands, Cristian Roldan, and Gianluca Busio are here again.  Aidan Morris and Alan Sonora are fresh options in the traditional central midfield spots, while Djordje Mihailovic embarks on what may prove to be the most important moment of his national team career.  Other than Jesus Ferreira sliding back into the 10 spot, there’s no one else equipped to play that position in this side.

Expect to see Ferreira deployed at the 9 more often than not, though FC Cincinnati’s Brandon Vazquez will surely see lots of time this tournament.  On the wings, Alex Zendejas should be one of the keys to the attack, while Jordan Morris and Cade Cowell are expected to share the winger minutes with him.  

This team is certainly good enough to win the tournament.  It’s not as strong as the Mexican side top to bottom, but many of these players are on the fringe of the full strength 23 and can make great strides in their pursuit of the 2026 World Cup roster.  

Contenders

Canada

Canada comes into the Gold Cup with eyes wide open.  They’ve made a lot of progress in the past 5 years, finishing first in the Octagonal and qualifying for the World Cup.  But they’ve been humbled since, earning 0 points in Qatar.  Canada then followed this up with a runners-up finish at the Nations League Finals, being thoroughly dominated in a 2-0 loss to the US.  John Herdman’s squad is built a lot like an MLS team: 3 superstars, a few proven veterans, and then a lot of fluff to fill out the roster.  They’ll be without those superstars - Davies, Larin, and David won’t be at the Gold Cup - but this is a major chance to build competitive depth amongst a player pool that has become top-heavy.  

Minnesota United’s Dayne St. Clair is a proven commodity in MLS, but he continues to sit behind veteran Milan Borjan; this tournament may prove to be a great opportunity to begin passing down the #1 shirt.  Kamal Miller, Steven Vitoria, and Scott Kennedy are Herdman’s first choice center backs, and they’ll all be with the team at the Gold Cup.  First-choice wingbacks Richie Laryea and Sam Adekugbe provide continuity and experience across the entire back 5.  

Junior Hoilett and Jonathan Osorio bring loads of tournament experience to the team in the midfield.  The talisman on this roster, Stephen Eustaquio, will be counted on even more so during this Gold Cup, and he has a Best XI skill level compared to the rest of the field.  Beyond those three, it gets a bit dicey.  Herdman’s rotations will be critical here, as the level may drop significantly with just one or two of them off the field.  

At forward, Tijuana’s Lucas Cavallini is the obvious choice to start with 35 caps and 18 goals on his Canada resume.  After that, it’s a totally unproven group.  Look for MLSers to step up and fill in the gaps; Nashville’s Jacob Shaffelburg and Columbus’ Jacen Russell-Rowe are two candidates for breakout tournaments in the Canadian attack.

A full strength Canada struggles to defend dynamic attacks, but they’re a threat in Concacaf due to the talent they have going forward.  This Canada team won’t have that, and it’s difficult to see them challenging for the title.  Belief is in their DNA, though, so look for a hungry team in black.

Panama

Los Canaleros enter the 2023 Gold Cup with a roster that has been together for several weeks now, losing both of their games at the CNL Finals and scoring zero goals.  That is the story of Panamanian football lately; no match for the “big 3”, but good enough to beat the rest.  Thomas Christiansen’s side is littered with talent and experience, with a handful of their players holding invaluable World Cup finals minutes.  Their full-strength roster should compete well at this tournament, starting with their #1 goalkeeper with half-a-hundred caps, Luis Mejia.  Captain Harold Cummings leads from the back, and another defender to look out for is Andres Andrade, a 24 year old Arminia Bielefeld center back.  This defense is a tough nut to crack, which helped Panama defeat Costa Rica in San Jose to reach the CNL Finals.

In the midfield, the most dangerous player is Andrelecht’s Michael Murrilo.  A pair of MLS midfielders should be comfortable setting the tempo in familiar stadiums, with Houston’s Adalberto Carrasquilla and Nashville’s Anibal Godoy running the center of the park.  

The biggest question mark for Los Canaleros is, where will the goals come from?  Cecilio Waterman has the best goal scoring record on the roster, but that’s only 8 goals for his country.  Mazatlan’s Yoel Barcenas will need to be firing on all cylinders, and he’s one of very few players on this roster with the creativity to break down a low block.  Another name to be on the lookout for is Ismael Diaz, whose pace and skill on the wing can unlock the mostly lackluster defenses around this tournament.  

Jamaica

I don’t believe I’m speaking in hyperbole when I say Jamaica has the most top-end talented roster at this tournament.  The Reggae Boyz are a beautiful mix of Caribbean-based and British-based talent.  The infusion of one-time switches that came prior to the Octagonal caused turmoil in the locker room, where captain Andre Blake described the team as having two “separate cliques”.  They’ll have the best goalkeeper at the tournament, assuming Matt Turner doesn’t start for the US, and a strong defense in front of the captain.  The backline includes the likes of Brentford’s Ethan Pinnock, Luton Town’s Amari’i Bell, and Philadelphia’s Damion Lowe.  That’s two from the EPL and one of the best defenders in MLS, which is miles ahead of any other defensive group at this tournament.

The midfield is just as strong, as you can expect to see Preston North End’s Daniel Johnson and Fulham’s Bobby Reid.  Believe it or not, their strongest group is likely the attackers.  We could see an entirely EPL-based front line consisting of Villa’s Leon Bailey, West Ham’s Michail Antonio, and Jamaica’s newest one-time switch man, Everton’s Demarai Gray.

Realistically, this is the best starting XI at this tournament.  We’ve yet to see the two groups truly gel together, but now would be an incredible time to put Jamaica on the map and start building towards a wide open 2026 qualification cycle.  If they can get it right, don’t be surprised to see the Reggae Boyz hoisting the trophy in Inglewood next month.

Costa Rica

Luis Fernando Suarez leads Los Ticos into his second Gold Cup, winning the group in 2021 and subsequently falling to Canada in the quarterfinals.  Costa Rica had a formidable showing at the World Cup in Qatar, rebounding from a horrific loss to Spain in the opener and nearly escaping the group with a strong performance against Germany.  

Keylor Navas was set to be the starter, but his injury situation leaves Costa Rica behind the eight ball. Your guess is as good as mine on who starts in goal.   Whoever it is, he’ll have an experienced backline ahead of him, with four World Cup veterans - Francisco Calvo, Keyshon Fuller, Kendall Waston, and Oscar Duarte - holding down the fort.  In the midfield, Celso Borges is complemented by plenty of fresh blood; Josimar Alcocer and Aaron Suarez are two bright stars for Los Ticos who should make a big impact on this tournament.   Joel Campbell brings experience and firepower to a small forward group.

Suarez will be under immense pressure to succeed at this tournament.  Panama came over to San Jose and defeated them on their home soil in a defacto Nations League quarterfinal game, and they’ll face off again in the opening game of the group.  With El Salvador also in Group C, it would not be a shock to see Costa Rica anywhere between 1st and 3rd in the group.

The Field

Trinidad & Tobago

Angus Eve expected his Soca Warriors to qualify for the final tournament, but he didn’t expect it to be this easy.  Replacing Nicaragua in Group A, T&T had nearly two weeks to train leading up to their opener against one of the three preliminary qualifiers.  It seems like it has been years since they’ve won an important game, failing to reach the Octagonal in the 2022 cycle.  They’ve also not reached the knockout round of the Gold Cup since the 2015 edition, and haven’t won a knockout game since 2000.  

Unfortunately, there isn’t much quality in this side.  Some of their key players include captain and Police FC’s Joevin Jones, Columbus Crew benchwarmer Kevin Molino, and Club Sando’s Alvin Jones.  There is some bright young talent that may feature here, though, with MLS youngsters like Sporting KC’s Kaile Auvray and Minnesota United’s Molik Khan.  

There is reason for hope, as their final tune-up match before the tournament was a 1-0 win over Guatemala.  It’s a team that will be severely outmatched by the US and Jamaica in Group A, but they’ve pulled off some big upsets in the past.  Right, Bruce?

Honduras

Diego Vazquez leads Los Catrachos into the Gold Cup, their first competitive tournament since winning none of their 14 Octagonal matches this cycle.  Honduras’ golden generation is on its way out, and there’s been little to nothing coming from the academies in recent years.  They find themselves in a very difficult group alongside Mexico, Haiti, and Qatar, which means similar performances may easily lead to a group stage exit.

The majority of Honduras’ squad is made up of domestic-based players, mostly coming from Honduran powerhouses Real Espana, CD Olimpia, and FC Motagua.  Luis Lopez looks set to retain the GK spot, and CB pairing Luis Vega and Carlos Melendez looked stout in the preparatory Venezuela friendly.  

In the midfield, there is a pair to watch for in Alex Lopez and Bryan Acosta.  Honduras has struggled mightily to score over the last 5 years, which will have Brest striker Alberth Elis under the microscope in the group stage.  He’s easily the most recognizable name in this team, and he’ll have a chance to play in the United States again as he did for years in MLS.

Haiti

Haiti won’t need convincing that anything can happen in tournament soccer, as their nation earned massive validation via Violette’s upset of Austin FC in the Concacaf Champions League.  Les Grenadiers are led by Gabriel Calderon Pelligrino, and their talent is one the reasons Group B is considered the group of death.  There’s a heavy European influence in their squad, thanks to Haiti’s close, but tricky relationship with France.  Ricardo Ade and Vitesse’s Carlens Arcus supply quality on the backline, and a host of low-tier European players make up the midfield.  

If you’re looking for a reason to believe in Haiti, their attack does have the ability to score on anyone at this tournament.  Nashville’s Fafa Picault’s creativity and Atlanta United’s Derrick Ettiene Jr’s speed should provide plenty of service to proven goalscorer Duckens Nazon.

Qatar

Carlos Quieroz looks to add the Gold Cup to his trophy cabinet, leading the Maroons into their second-straight appearance at the tournament.  Qatar bring 13 players from their World Cup squad, though their performances as hosts earned them the title as worst team at the tournament.  However, they fared much better at the 2021 Gold Cup as guests, reaching the semifinal and losing to eventual champions USA in a game they truly could have won.  

Meshaal Barsham is expected to wear the gloves for Qatar, earning the starting role in the final 2 group stage games at the World Cup.  Tarek Salman and Bassam Al-Rawi should feature on the back line, but they’ll be joined by a largely unproven group of defenders in terms of international competitions.  Captain Hassan Al Haidos is not with the team, so the midfield will be leaning on veterans Assim Madibo and Ali Assadalla to lead the group.  Star striker Almoez Ali leads a strong group of attackers that should keep the Maroons often on the scoresheet.

Qatar find themselves in a tricky group alongside the favorites Mexico, and they’ll need to outperform Honduras and Haiti in order to reach the knockout rounds.  This is a squad that has enough talent and experience to give every team in the tournament some trouble, and don’t be surprised to see them repeat their semifinal run from 2021.  

El Salvador

One distinct advantage La Selecta has coming into the Gold Cup: manager.  Hugo Perez’s ability to inspire talented players is proven by his role in developing the likes of Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie.  In a tournament full of teams navigating coaching disasters, El Salvador has a lot of stability heading into the Gold Cup.  They had a very strong performance in the Octagonal, keeping nearly all of their games tightly competitive against stronger opposition.  They can be a tough block to break down, but that narrative was damaged by Japan’s 6-0 thrashing in preparation for the group stage.  

The danger man for the team is Josh Perez, a talented attacker that demands the ball.  Seattle Sounders midfielder Alex Roldan has been a stalwart in the center of the park, and starlet Brayan Gil adds some creativity ahead of Roldan.  If they can score, they can win, but that’s easier said than done for the well organized and defensive minded La Selecta.

Guatemala

Los Chapines have some solid professionals, and they have other nations to thank for some of that key development.  Goalkeeper Nick Hagen applies his trade in his home country of Norway, along with a pair of critical players who came up through the USYNT system.  In defense, Aaron Herrera is a major part of the backline, and their starting striker will be former US U-20 Rubio Rubin.  

They are favored to advance from a weak Group D, which includes a lighter Canada, Cuba, and Guadeloupe.  The match against Canada will be critical, but advancing either way guarantees a difficult matchup with Jamaica or the US waiting from Group A.

Cuba

Cuba has grown as a soccer nation so much in the last 10 years, once again scheduling friendlies during FIFA windows in addition to Concacaf sponsored matches.  It will be an uphill battle with Canada and Guatemala in the group, but just playing competitive matches could do wonders for a budding soccer culture.  

Defenders like Carlos Vazquez and Inter Miami’s Modesto Mendez are noteworthy players.  Maykel Reyes has scored some big goals that brought Cuba to this Gold Cup, and it was Yasnier Matos that confirmed their automatic berth in their 1-0 win over Guadeloupe in March.  Don’t rule out a shock quarterfinal berth for Los Leones del Caribe.

Guadeloupe

Les Gwada Boys were dominant in the Gold Cup prelims, much to the delight of manager Jocelyn Angloma.  Captain Ronan Hauterville leads the team from the back, and Steve Solvet has the size and technique to help get traction against even the best teams at this tournament.  

They may not be the deepest team at the Gold Cup, but they’ve got plenty of options in the attack that can put goals up in several different ways.  Matthias Phaeton is a dynamic wide player that likes to shoot from anywhere, and Ange-Freddy Plumain adds creativity in tight spaces.  They’ll need star striker Thierry Ambrose to be firing on all cylinders to escape a top-heavy Group A.

Martinique

Les Matinino comes into the Gold Cup flying high, dominating both of their games at the preliminary playoffs over St. Lucia and Puerto Rico.  Manager Marc Collat has been here before, though with mixed results.  In 2019, he was in charge of Haiti, who won their Gold Cup group, defeated Canada in the quarters, and ultimately fell to Mexico in extra time of the semis.  In 2021, he led Martinique to a different fate, losing all three of their group stage matches.

The team on the field is a diverse mix of old and young, domestic and European based players.  Like many other teams in this tournament, Martinique’s attachment to France means their player pool consists of many applying their trade in western Europe.  Captain Daniel Herrelle has been slowly phased out, though he’ll be counted on as a voice in the locker room and experience off the bench.  The strike pairing of Brighton Lebeau and Karl Fabien was lethal in the prelims, while veteran center back Jonathan Rivierez is key to their defensive acumen and build up play.

St. Kitts & Nevis

Easily the best nickname of the tournament is the St. Kitts & Nevis Sugar Boyz, which comes from the nation’s sugar cultivation that is critical to their economy.  Led by former player and current manager Austin Huggins, the Sugar Boyz are making their first appearance in the Gold Cup.  They’ll be up against it, being placed into Group A with Jamaica and the US, but it’s a milestone moment for this up and coming program.  

All-time caps leader and central defender Gerard Williams bolsters the backline, while Cardiff City midfielder Romaine Sawyers inspires the attack that scored just enough to upset Curacao and defeat French Guiana en route to the final tournament.  Young and homegrown attacker Tiquanny Williams is not only the focal point of the front line, but also a testament to the growth of the game in this country.  If you need a second-favorite team at this tournament, these are your Boyz.

Predictions

Group A

I see this one going according to plan.  Jamaica’s strong roster overpowers Trinidad and St. Kitts & Nevis, but a draw against the United States is not enough to win the group.  A solid core of players means a comfortable progression for the US.  The disappointment continues for T&T, who loses all 3 games in the group stage.  The win on Matchday 1 gives The Sugar Boyz hope, but they fall quickly back down to earth in their final two games.

Group B

Mexico rights the ship amongst the choppy waters, struggling a bit en route to 7 points and the group win.  Guests Qatar do just enough to advance over Haiti, with both earning one group stage win.  Honduras joins T&T as the only two teams failing to earn a point at the tournament.  The group of death does provide 6 very interesting matches, though.

Group C

Panama continues to build off of their successful Nations League group stage, eliminating Costa Rica from a competition for the second time in 3 months.  El Salvador’s strong defense complicates games enough to earn 5 points and the runner up position.  (Blank) joins Costa Rica in the elimination spots, though a tie against El Salvador will be something to build on for the growing soccer program.

Group D

Group D leaves something to be desired, producing the least entertaining soccer at the tournament.  Canada’s comfort under Herdman is enough to win this group with ease, winning all three games.  Guatemala limps into the knockouts with their only win coming against Cuba, who suffer a disaster in defeat against (blank).  

Quarterfinals

Mexico defeats El Salvador, 1-0: El Salvador does everything but score in this game, but Santi Gimenez’s stoppage time winner keeps El Tri moving on.

Jamaica defeats Canada, 3-1: Demarai Gray finally gets his tally started for Jamaica, scoring twice in a comfortable statement win against the Canadians.

Qatar defeats Panama, 1-1 a.e.t. (4-2 on PKs): Almoez Ali rescues the game late for Qatar, leveling the game after Carrasquilla’s opener.  Qatar wins in penalties.

USA defeats Guatemala, 4-0: The US attack proves too much too often for Los Chapines, as Jesus Ferreira’s brace and assist lead the way for the Americans.

Semifinals

Jamaica defeats Mexico, 2-1 a.e.t.: Blows are traded in a lively second half, with Michail Antonio and Erick Sanchez rippling the mesh.  Damion Lowe’s extra time header earns Jamaica their 3rd Gold Cup final berth in 8 years.

USA defeats Qatar, 1-0: Similar to the semifinal matchup in 2021, Qatar controls the game and has the better of the chances.  Defensive heroics allow the Americans to move on with just one big chance, a Jordan Morris goal in first half stoppage time.

The Final

Jamaica defeats USA, 2-1: An early goal from Leon Bailey has the Reggae Boyz in front, but Alex Zendejas’ 85th minute equalizer puts the title back in the balance.  That is, until Bobby Reid’s 89th minute volley takes Jamaica to the promised land.  

This would be Jamaica’s first major international trophy, and the first Gold Cup winners outside of Mexico and the US since 2000.

Awards

Golden Ball: Leon Bailey (JAM)

Golden Boot: Jesus Ferreira (USA)

Golden Glove: Andre Blake (JAM)

Young Player Award: Julian Araujo (MEX)

Goal of the Tournament: Duckens Nazon (HAI)

Fighting Spirit Award: Sam Adekugbe (CAN)

Fair Play Award: United States

Best XI

GK: Andre Blake (JAM)

DF: Tarek Salman (QAT), Sam Adekugbe (CAN), Matt Miazga (USA)

MID: Stephen Eustaquio (CAN), Djordje Mihailovic (USA), Edson Alvarez (MEX), Michael Murillo (PAN),

FWD: Demarai Gray (JAM), Jesus Ferreira (USA), Leon Bailey (JAM)