“Look at the world around you. It may seem like an immovable, implacable place. It is not. With the slightest push—in just the right place—it can be tipped.”

― Malcolm Gladwell

TL;DR: You heard that AMC stock was set to go boom and bought a few shares. Or, you’re considering it. Either way, you have questions. Think of this like the $AMC CliffNotes. You can read through this information or quickly skip to the topics that matter most to you using the index links. Enjoy.

INDEX:

Community Engagement

Helpful Links

What is a Short Squeeze?

Is AMC Set for a Short Squeeze?

Who Is Citadel & Why Are They a Problem?

What is Naked Shorting?

Where do “Borrowed Shares” Come From?

What Happens If AMC Squeezes…?

Just Buy & Hodl

What About AMC’s Fundamentals?

Redefining AMC’s Fundamentals

A Note About Risk

Will Setting a Stop Loss Help Minimize My Risk?

What’s the Price Target?

Is the June 2nd Share Count Important?

What is a Broker?

Is It Weird Adam Aron is on YouTube Instead of Cable News?

Can I Vote If I Am Outside the U.S.?

What Happened with Wanda?

There Will Be F.U.D.

How Are More Shares Traded Than Exist in the Float?

A Note About News Catalysts

A Parting Thought

Before We Begin.

Hello and welcome fellow Ape and/or Ape-curious investor. This document contains  a compilation of research, resources and prior due-diligence done by a massive, passionate AMC investor community.

As reported in this June 9th press release, the June 2 share count revealed “there were approximately 4.1 million individual shareholders” eligible for voting As of March 11, 2021, our number was 3.2 million strong, around the world. But, as interest has grown in this stock, the size of our force continues to grow as well. Everyday, we are adding hundreds of thousands of people from around the world hoping this investment will lead to meaningful financial gain, if not personal financial freedom.

However, in order to achieve such a goal, we need to educate ourselves on the dynamics around this play. That’s why I assembled this information. My friends began asking questions, good questions. The answers to which are available, but spread across the internet, in YouTube videos, on Reddit boards and in news articles. I felt a basic information hub would be a helpful research tool for those considering $AMC.

Think of each datapoint on these pages as a window out onto the battlefield. As the general in the Battle for Your Financial Future, how can you hope to understand what is happening out there, let alone make steady decisions as the fog of war clouds your mind, if you never take the time to look out the window? And, how much more successful will you be in achieving your goals if you start to connect the information available through multiple windows?

Now, it is unlikely, no matter how much time and energy you invest, that you will ever gain a completely clear understanding of the dynamics in this battle, but you must try to see as clearly as you are able, if you are to be successful. Which brings us to the first question one must ask:

“How do I define success?”

No one can answer this question but you. This document will not offer any conclusions. My hope is that the information here simply puts you on the scent and helps you discover the answers to the questions that matter most to you.

You will find there is a fundamental difference that binds “the Apes,” as we lovingly call ourselves, which distinguishes them from typical investors. Whereas most play the stock market to add to what is “mine”, we have a mindset of sharing what is “ours”.

So, in that open source spirit, I hope this proves helpful to you. Together, we are stronger.

Where to Engage With the Community

Despite the way news outlets continue to credit WallStreetBets with driving interest in AMC, that sub doesn’t actually allow AMC chatter. We have exclusive boards and YouTube channels where information is made readily available for anyone who needs it.

AMC Investor Relations: https://investor.amctheatres.com/corporate-overview/?_ga=2.259473869.634643777.1622337514-132721505.1622337513

AMC-specific Reddit Boards:

AMC Stock, AMC DD & AMC_Union

AMC YouTube Channels:

The number of YouTube channels currently in on or dedicated to AMC are infinite. And growing daily. These are the channels I’ve come to trust most and feel offer real value. You will find that much of the information shared overlaps, but they present a spectrum of interpretations of that data. As with all things, the Truth likely exists somewhere in the middle -- you’ll have to listen and triangulate where you think it lives. Watch with discretion and intention.

Roensch Capital: straight up technical analysis delivered with a magnificent voice

Matt Kohrs: even keel opinions; doesn’t take himself too seriously

Trading Sciences: former Wall Street trader & Elliott Wave expert -- excellent TA

Trey’s Trades: infectious energy, the unofficial leader of the Gorilla Gang.

Jeff Forbes: sober analysis from a smart investor

Lou vs Wall Street: digital certificate validation expert with a foul mouth and several  “theories”

(Author’s Note: Lou is an acquired taste & a polarizing member of this community, but the valuable insights he adds into some of the mechanics of high frequency trading and the behind-the-scenes aspects of Wall Street “fuckery” make the tangents he gets on worth it.)

Notable Twitter Accounts:
AMC CEO Adam Aron: https://twitter.com/CEOAdam

For AMC Behavior Analysis: https://twitter.com/BAMinvestor

For Market Insight & Perspective: https://twitter.com/Joshuajammes

For Live Short Interest Updates: https://twitter.com/ORTEX

Search the Hashtags on Twitter: $AMC, #AMC, #SaveAMC, #AMCApes, #AMCArmy

Quick Links

AMC Investor Relations: https://investor.amctheatres.com/corporate-overview/?_ga=2.259473869.634643777.1622337514-132721505.1622337513

A Brief  AMC Overview (by u/AffiliateLeakz): https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/nonwsa/to_all_the_new_apes_that_jumped_on_to_amc_here_is/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

The Minutes of This Unfolding Saga (by u/Few_Campaign8623): Ultimate AMC Timeline

Master DD Compilation (by u/magnificentmemer): https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/nk1wtf/a_comprehensive_guide_to_amc_stock_for_apes_new/

What Is a Short Squeeze?

“A short squeeze is an unusual condition that triggers rapidly rising prices in a stock or other tradeable security. For a short squeeze to occur the security must have an unusual degree of short sellers holding positions in it. The short squeeze begins when the price jumps higher unexpectedly. The condition plays out as a significant measure of the short sellers coincidentally decide to cut losses and exit their positions.” — Investopedia

To take a short position, short-sellers borrow shares of a stock, on the bet that the price will drop in the future. They do this so they can buy the shares after the price drop, return the borrowed shares and pocket the difference between the price when they initiated the short and the actual sales price. For loaning the stock, the borrower pays the loaning  entity a “short borrow fee”.

No matter what happens with the price, the borrowed shares must be returned.

For a squeeze to squeeeeeeeeze, four things must come into alignment:

1. A large amount of short interest exposure by investors in a particular stock
2. A significant portion of the total number of tradable shares of that stock to be held short
3. A lack of available supply of the shorted stock
4. An average daily trade volume of that stock that would make it hard for the shorts to exit their positions in a timely manner

And, once those things align, the price action needs to trap the shorts in a losing bet. Because, even if the above conditions are met, so long as the “short bet” continues to be profitable, the short sellers are safe. They only run into trouble when the price doesn’t drop, but increases. And the higher the price goes, the more desperate their short position becomes.

What kind of things cause the price action to turn? It could be any number of things, but one of the common factors are positive news catalysts (see below for more on this topic).

Also of note. When an investor takes a short position on a stock, they do so with the knowledge that their potential profit is limited and their risk of loss is infinite. Yes, I said INFINITE.

Is AMC Set Up For a Short Squeeze?

Oh baby, is it. We have alignment on all four basic ingredients. This is the current state of things as reported by the real-time short interest data platform Ortex from  Sunday, May 30th:

#AMC - Short Interest - Week Summary

$AMC had a wild week, a low of $12.08 and a high of $36.72, closed the week at $25.65; a weekly increase of 112%. For #ShortSellers; a loss of $1.2b.

#ShortInterest is 17.93% of FreeFloat

On top of that, they reported that short interest grew by 2.99% from the prior day. The next Tuesday, June 2nd, we saw a 100% day as $AMC rose to $77.26 in afterhours trading. And here’s the Ortex tweet from Friday, Sept. 10th:

#AMC - Short Interest Update

$AMC crosses $50 for the first time since July 6th.

Estimated #ShortInterest: 18.36% of FreeFloat | Utilization: 91.44%

(NOTE: As you get into this, you’ll find yourself seeing a lot of data from Ortex. So, please watch this Matt Kohrs video on important terms to know regarding the Ortex data we are all watching. Also, there is so much manipulation of data that Ortex provides an imperfect picture -- they are reporting only what is self-reported by market stakeholders.)

So, 1)  high short exposure? On Friday, May 28th, 7 times as many shares were borrowed as returned even as the short sellers exposure ballooned to nearly $1B interday. Check.

2) Yes, 18.36% is considered high short interest, so check.

3) We know that the Apes hold “more than 80%” of the free float. And they are not selling, limiting available supply. Check. (I wrote this statement prior to new information coming out regarding the inflation of the free float coming to light. Below, I explain how I believe we own 100%+ of the free float.)

And, 4) the days to cover, despite the recent spike in total volume, is still above 1 trading day.

Combine these factors with a 112% increase in share price in just one week, leading to $1.2B in losses for the short sellers for the week and you had the final straw in our first big move. A move with sustained gains of 109% from June 1st to Sept 10th. Those open short positions are no longer profitable and the likelihood they will ever be is miniscule. Doesn’t matter the timeframe of that last sentence, it’s evergreen now that we re-broke $50. Any short positions that remain open from our run to $77 would need to be closed, which requires purchasing back the borrowed shares, which will cannibalize their meager gains. It was and continues to be a no-win play for the shorts.

This set up, however, isn’t new to those of us who have been watching. In this video from Mar 18, TreysTrades breaks down AMC’s set up at that time. Though the figures have shifted positively in our favor since this video was made, the fundamental structure of the play still applies… only it is much, much stronger, today, as articulated by Roensch Capital after closing above $50 on Sept. 10th.

How much stronger? Here’s a Forbes article from May 28 that details the escalation of the situation around AMC. The quoted analyst gives the set up a 10/10, or perfect short squeeze set up rating. A rating of 10 is incredibly rare. (Please Note: The primary source of data for this article is S3 Partners. Strong evidence exists that S3 is owned by Citadel, aka El Diablo.)

This is why we don’t say “short squeeze” -- we believe we are looking at the potential for MOASS -- the Mother of All Short Squeezes -- a word I never imagined seeing published by the very stuffy Barron’s.

Sidebar: Who Is Citadel & Why Are They a Problem?

Wonderful question. You’ve unlocked the Crayon Power Up. 🖍

If retail investors are the Rebel Alliance of this unfolding drama, Citadel -- and various other hedge funds -- are the Empire. And like Darths Sidious, Maul and Vadar, they leverage the dark side of the Force to manipulate the entire market to their benefit. (Please click that link. In it you will hear Ken Griffin confess to manipulating emotions to increase the value of his fund.)

As you can see in this Blooberg article, Citadel exploited loopholes in the laws passed to prevent another financial collapse after the 2008 fiasco and work outside of those regulations, propelling them to exponential growth, while positioning themself as both market maker and market participant. Not only that, their technology processes half of all trades in the United States which puts them at an unfair advantage against their competition, as well as retail investors.

As Elizabeth Warren noted during a recent congressional hearing, “When big sharks like Citadel and Robinhood come out ahead no matter what happens, and when the information they gather isn’t disclosed, and when it’s secret how that information is used, it’s easier for these giants to skim off the top at the expense of small investors.”

If that weren’t a bad enough look for Citadel, they also have been fined 58 times for FINRA, REGSHO & SEC regulations violations, many of which are documented instances of 'willful' naked shorting. Browse this FINRA report to see for yourself.

“It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself,

you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles…”

— Sun Tzu, The Art of War

So, get to know what you’re up against. Here are 5 DD about Citadel absolutely worth your time.

1. Citadel Has No Clothes
2. Blackrock Bagholders, Inc
3. The Everything Short
4. Walkin' like a duck. Talkin' like a duck
5. Bonus Material: SEC Chairman Sets Sights on Citadel (from WSJ)

And yes, Citadel is very, very short. Like almost $58 Billion in open short interest, short. Check it for yourself here. Page 8. Statement of Financial Condition. Liabilities.

“Securities Sold, Not Yet Purchased, At Fair Value” are listed as $57,506 million -- which is a convoluted way to say $57.5 BILLION. And that’s just what El Diablo reported to the SEC. It’s worth mentioning, as well, that this 2020 figure is DOUBLE their 2019 short interest.

UPDATE: As if further proof were necessary of Citadel’s corrupt tactics, take the Mudrick Capital incident of June 1, 2021. AMC announced the sale of 8.5M shares of AMC Common Stock to Mudrick Captial. Adam Aron explained the move across 5 tweets. In the sale, the company raised nearly a quarter of a billion dollars. The same day, Mudrick sold their entire stake in AMC stating the company was “overvalued”. Care to guess who manages the Mudrick fund? Ken Griffin. I shit you not. This was a poorly orchestrated, calculated case of market manipulation by one of the most corrupt men on Wall Street and the attack failed. AMC’s stock fell approximately 10% from the 8.5M share sell off, only to regain more than half the dip within fifteen minutes. At the bottom of the mini-dip (which occurred between 11:30 - 12:00 EST) the stock was still up 13% over the prior day’s close.

You Said “Naked Shorting”. What is That?

For starters, it’s not as awesome as it sounds.

"But the thing you don't realize is that there's good naked and bad

naked. Naked hair brushing, good; naked crouching, bad.”

— Jerry Seinfeld

Remember how a short position begins by borrowing shares? Well, a naked short position occurs when there are no backing shares to cover that position. The SEC outlawed this practice after the 2008 housing bubble burst because naked shorting, bad.

Bad, but well known as this article from February makes abundantly clear: “It’s a scam central to the stock trading system, enabled by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the market regulator, and the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. (DTCC), the stock clearinghouse, to benefit the big players.”

The scam is particularly problematic because it adds false supply to the marketplace. An increase in the total number of shares artificially drives down the price. I appreciate the way Trey explains it in this video: AMC Stock - The synthetic shares are WORSE than you think.

From The Intercept:

“The thing about naked short sales is they can’t stay naked forever. Even if you don’t have the stock when you sell it, at some point it is expected that you hand it over…

Not doing so results in a “fail to deliver,” which DiIorio describes as the securities version of an IOU. And that IOU comes with rules: Under the SEC’s Regulation SHO, short sellers have to cough up the stock within one day of incurring the fail. Routine failures to deliver can lead to fines by the SEC, or even a ban from the securities markets.”

The really interesting thing about the Intercept article this quote comes from is who the story is about: Knight Capital Group. That’s a name that should ring a bell, if you clicked the link about S3’s connection to Citadel. KCG Holdings sold its legacy KCG arm to Citadel in 2016

And what’s so nefarious about KCG? Well, like Citadel’s reported doubling of “Securities Sold, Not Yet Purchased, At Fair Value” from 2019 to 2020, this sure sounds familiar:

“According to its own financial reports, Knight’s “sold not yet purchased” liability jumped from $385 million at the beginning of 2008 to $1.9 billion by mid-2011… Knight was driving penny stocks down over and over again with naked shorting, then not actually closing the trades, and racking up enormous paper liabilities.”

History, as they say, repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.

UPDATE: And the farce begins. On Friday, June 4, naked shorting moved out of the shadowy back rooms of Wall Street and onto the main stage when CNBC host Melissa Lee actually said “naked shorts” during the broadcast. Tom Nash’s quick breakdown of the moment and its importance to this discussion is worth your time.

Where Do “Borrowed Shares” Come From?

The shares come from the stock’s investors. Almost every broker has a “share lending program” and, when borrowed to short, the stocks opted in those programs are used against the very shareholders who lent them. So, it would be worth your time to investigate if your broker has that turned on for your account and take the necessary actions to opt out.

Webull, for example, defaults this setting to “on” for new accounts.

I noticed in my Fidelity account that you have to have an account of a certain size to even qualify for share lending. So, broker to broker, the terms are different.

It is best for the community if all Apes ensure they have share lending turned off for their individual brokerage account. Please take a minute to do this.

So, What Happens If AMC Squeezes?

Not if, friend, when. (I mean, nothing is a guarantee, but this is pretty dang close at this point.)

Remember, as the stock price rises, the shorts must cover. They do this by buying the shares they borrowed because the cost to continue to wait for the price to fall simply costs too much money. And their risk is not capped, it is infinite.

So, at a certain point, they flinch and begin to buy back the stock (or they get margin called and are forced to liquidate their other positions in order to cover their losses) and that buying pressure, in turn, drives the price of the stock up.

This is the supply & demand line Trey described, but in reverse. They have to buy millions of shares, but Apes own the free float, so if we simply hodl, they are having to do so with a very limited supply. As the price rises, contracts in the options chain will suddenly come into the money, which means the writers of those contracts (each contract is worth 100 shares) will have to begin to hedge for (buy) the shares promised in those contracts. The additional buying pressure adds more fuel to the rising price until eventually, MOASS.

When insanely high demand meets extremely  limited supply, AMC go boom straight past the moon. Pick your destination. Mars? Pluto? Alpha Centauri?

Buy the Dip, Buy the Rip. Just HODL Your Shit.

New Ape -- and I feel very confident that if you’ve read this far into this document, you are no longer curious, but thirsty. You’ve now earned the Ape badge; wear it with honor -- this is where the Apes Together Strong idea I mentioned at the start of this DD really comes into play.

We — the little retail investor who could — hold a majority of the available shares. So long as we continue to hold, they have fewer shares with which to close out their short positions. The price will rise like a supertide. And, what does a rising tide do?

A rising tide lifts all boats. Yachts and dinghies alike. It doesn’t matter how many shares you hold, it only matters that you hold what you have.

The only risk, at this point, is not owning a boat.

But So-and-So Said AMC’s Fundamentals Don’t...

No. Stop. Can we agree this is not a typical stock play? EBITDA multiples and quarterly earnings and YoY revenue growth are out the window for the time being. Stick a banana in the mouth of anyone who starts their “I’m just looking out for you” treatise like this.

To begin with, AMC’s profitability was crushed by Covid, a global health crisis that made gathering in dark rooms to nom popcorn and enjoy a movie a potentially deadly date night. Because of that, Hollywood reacted as wisely as they were able, at the time. The release of new movies, at least the good ones, were put on hold, and the lesser films were sent straight to streaming.

A theater chain’s primary product is new films. No new films means no audience. No audience,  no concessions, no revenue. It’s, like, not that deep. And, on seeing this play out, the hedge funds swept in to kick their fellow American business in the teeth while they were down.

Knowing what we know about them, at this point, are we surprised?

Yet, somehow, AMC found a way to survive the pandemic. They have more cash on hand, right now, than at any other point in their 100 year history. Anyone who cares about American Business should be praising the work of Adam Aron, not attempting to propel the narrative beneficial to the short sellers who want nothing more than to do to AMC what they did to Toys “R” Us. These Hedge Funds can go fundamental themselves.

AMC’s Fundamentals Redefined.

If typical fundamentals don’t apply, what metrics can we look at to measure this play? Good question, Ape.

Before a shareholder meeting in early August, AMC contracted Say Technologies to gather questions from shareholders for the company to answer at the meeting. In order to do this, investors had to verify their shares. This created an inadvertent, albeit imperfect, share count. So, let’s rebuild the AMC story using the numbers to which we were given access.

Some stories are built of words, some of pictures, this one will be told by numbers, this story of a theater chain—a business built, ironically, on word and picture stories. The number at the center of this story is 4,000,000,000. Or, four billion if you prefer words to numbers.

As I’ve said many times in this document, a wealthy few coalesced around the hypothesis that the pandemic would be the death of theatrical movies. As the world’s largest theater chain, it would certainly bankrupt AMC. They looked at “the fundamentals” and made a bet.

If successful, they would make BILLIONS on AMC’s demise. They just needed to give it a nudge, similar to the shove that sent Toys-R-Us off the cliff. They shorted the shit out of the stock -- an unowned stock. The short seller hopes they can buy the asset in the future for less than it sells today. This is an inversion of the typical investment.

So, they borrowed and sold a lot of AMC stock.

As I wrote above,  4.1M people owned (as of June) at least one share of the 500M approved shares of #AMC, give or take. We call this “the float”. But, because of shareholder participation in the Q&A, and by sideways virtue of the technology used to query 4 million people we saw that the shorts have created 7 synthetic shares for every legally issued share.

At the close of voting, 62,266 shareholders had voted. Those people represent 66.3M shares. That means the average AMC investor owns a position of 1064.8 shares. You don’t have to be good at math or story to see that something was—is!—shallow we say, amiss.

4.1M investors x 1,064.8 shares = 4,365,680,000 shares, a number significantly greater than the 500M shares issued legally by the company.

But, but, but… that’s such a small sample size. How can you be sure the math scales?

Again, great question Ape.

According to Qualtrics, a polling company, “you can take a random sample of individuals that represent the population as a whole.” We see this technique used in everything from election polling to television ratings.

Using the Qualtrics calculator, we are able to determine that, for a population of 4.1M people, we need a sample of 16,510 individuals from that population to arrive at 99% accurate understanding with a mere 1% margin of error.

With the Say Technologies data, we 3.75x the data required to render an incredibly accurate understanding.

So, I can say with greater than 99% accuracy that the 4.1M shareholders actually own 4,365,624,900 shares of AMC, which is 8.73x the legal float.

Numbers are beautiful.

Of course, not all synthetic shares are illegal.

I will grant you this, sure. Let’s assume that every legal share was, at some point, legally located and lent to a short seller, then sold back into the marketplace. That means, the “legal” float could be as large as 1B shares.

That would still leave 3.4B synthetics created by Market Makers that should not be in the market and will need to be bought back before this play is finished. That’s a lot of buying pressure yet to come into the stock.

But, June was a long time ago. How can you be sure there are 4.1M shareholders?

We actually don’t know. In this article from Bloomberg, published on Sept. 8th, they note “Retail investors sold $2.45 million in shares of the world’s largest movie-theater company on Tuesday, marking the first time the group became sellers of the stock since February.”

I believe the intention of this article was to create some F.U.D. The headline, “Retail Traders Cashing In AMC’s Gains Showcase Growing Fatigue,” seems to indicate negative sentiment. However, if you dig into the numbers (always dig into the numbers!) you can see that the big “sell off” was ridiculously minor.

$2.45 million in AMC shares is how many shares exactly? Sounds like a shit-ton, right? The chart that accompanies the article shows a tiny red dot -- so tiny they need an arrow to show you it’s even there -- on Sept. 8th, the first day of net selling since February.

On Wednesday, Sept. 8th, AMC’s average share price was $47.30.

$2,450,000 / $47.30 = 51,797 shares

The first big selloff buy retail equates to 12/1000 of a share sold by each of the 4.1M investors. Or, it would equate to 48.6 shareholders (with the average position size of 1064.8 shares), closing their position.

In layman’s terms: the number of shareholders hasn’t changed to the negative since the June figure. It is highly likely the number has actually grown.

We can state with the conviction of the numbers—not wishful thinking—as our sole defense, that 4.4B shares of AMC in circulation is a fairly conservative estimate.

Let’s Talk About Risk, Baby.

Let’s talk about all the good things and the bad things that may be. Let’s talk about risk.

When MOASS ignites, you’ll know. The price volatility will be enormous. There is risk, no doubt. Because of that, you have to begin adapting your thought patterns. You have to get smart about interpreting the news. No stock guru or so-called financial expert will be able to guide you through this. They are already way out of their depth, if not very inconveniently connected to one of the hedge funds nuts deep in short-bet exposure or market makers whose naked short shares have left their boat full of holes just as the tide comes in.

I was a lifeguard in high school. One of the first things we were taught was that the drowning man -- it’s always a man, isn’t it? -- is a danger to himself and to you. Please understand this fundamental point. The people who have margined themselves to oblivion, who are shorter than we even know, they are flailing. And, in their desperation to save themselves, they will push your head so far underwater if it keeps their’s above the surface for a few more minutes.

“Derivatives have a bad press at the moment, but it’s important to acknowledge their role in the long history of man’s attempt to understand, control, and make money from risk.”

— John Lanchester,

I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone and No One Can Pay

But who is at greater risk, really? Think about this, rationally. Are we drowning? No. Are we in danger? No. What’s the very worst that can happen with your investment: 100% of it could disappear… but then, for you, it’s over.

The 4.1 million retail investors who currently hold the majority of the AMC shares, have taken a long position. We are betting that the price of the stock will rise from its current level. For the last week, we were right.

Remember when I said that the risk to those in short positions was infinite? Well, the risk to those in long positions is not, because even if the price were to go to $0, you can’t lose more than you have invested.

So, risk becomes a personal metric. What is risky to one investor is not to another. Like defining your version of success, you must also determine your tolerance for risk. I simply ask you to consider what you’d risk in order to achieve your financial goals?

And, as you consider the answer to that question, ask yourself this one: what do those who are warning me about the risk of this investment stand to gain from deterring me from holding onto my position? The answer to that is that they stand to gain a few more breaths of air thanks to the life preserver offered by your relinquishing your shares.

There is an adage I appreciate that goes “When someone in a market tells you to sell, it’s because you hold what they need. If they say “buy” it’s because they need to let go of what they hold.” This is the lens by which I hope you can begin to filter the headlines and make sense of the story that’s unfolding around your investment in AMC. Having said that, there is a lot of great information available to investors to help them mitigate the risk to their portfolio.

Review Dork has an easy to understand walkthrough to help you limit your exposure in the stock market: https://youtu.be/Opt1TD6u4b0

If you’re looking to get into AMC or add to your position, Trey has a good video on potential entry points: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHRCmSQ9l_A&t=542s

In r/Superstonk, u/socrates6210 wrote up a wonderful MOASS Preparation Guide.

I won’t get into exit strategies here because there are many and no one can advise you on what to do when the day comes to chuck deuces at this play. But, I will trust that you will do yourself a service and really think about how best to maximize profit, when it comes time to sell.

Will Setting a Stop Loss Help Minimize My Risk?

On a normal investment, a Stop Loss absolutely protects you from suffering the effects of a rapid price drop. But, as has been noted ad infinitum, THIS IS NOT A NORMAL PLAY.

Therefore, we must adjust our tactics.

TL;DR: The general sentiment among the Apes is stop losses are bad. If all you take from this is that single point and cancel your stop loss: you are doing well.

However, let me help paint a picture for you about why stop losses are not your friend on AMC.

1. Citadel, and their fellow hedge fund cohort, have rigged the game against us. They have more capital individually than we have collectively  and they regularly leverage that advantage to fish for stop losses. Just check out the chart below from May 26th. There were approximately 30M shares traded in the opening two minutes of the trading day, 27M of that came in the first minute. The little skinny line off the bottom of that second candle in the black area (Newbie Note: each little bar on the above chart is called a candle & represents a single minute of trading; the skinny lines are called wicks) reached down to $17,.26 before the price action turned “green” (positive) and the Apes took over for the day.
2. This “wick” is (most likely) the hedge funds fishing for stop losses. They would love nothing more than to spend MILLIONS OF DOLLARS to trigger your stop loss and take your shares off your hands, helping you realize a small loss that they can turn into a large gain. These are smart, conniving, devious, dastardly deep pockets. As the saying goes, “you have to spend money to make money” and they are living by that rule right now.
3. Remember: they need shares to cover their short positions, so the battle is for shares, not price per share.
4. As we covered in the Risk Section, once the squeeze begins, the price will be volatile. I can’t stress this point enough. GameStop (GME), as an example, during its Gamma Squeeze in January, saw $300 swings in an hour; $100 price swings in 15 minutes. It was NUTS. A Stop Loss or a Trailing Stop Loss will be triggered when the price action gets that volatile.

How High Will The Price of AMC Get?

We give no price targets. We set no dates. In the words of Matt Kohrs, “your best bet is to play this level to level.” I subscribe to this notion wholeheartedly.

That said, there are many (myself included)  who believe that when the dust settles, AMC’s squeeze will surpass the yet-to-squeeze GME in scope: the size of the community is larger, the size of the company, too, and the fundamental underlying business is simply a smart Covid  recovery play. We win with this investment even if it never squeezes.

PS. The link above is to a thorough DD for you price-minded folks. Please just remember as your eyes fill with dollar signs:

Not “mine” but “ours” is the strength of the Apes.

No Dates? What About June 2nd?

Ah yes. This is rather important for shareholders. So long as you own a single share of AMC, on June 2nd, you are “counted” as a shareholder, which makes you eligible to vote on the proxy issues which will be discussed during the July 29th shareholder meeting.

Here is a nice letter of explanation sent to u/palmd33zy by John Merriwether, VP of Investor Relations

For most of us, this date became a “thing” during the Q1 Earnings Call which occurred on May 6th. Rather than speculate, I will simply quote what we were told by CEO Adam Aron:

“AMC now has an army of passionate, interested individual shareholders, some 3 million strong. The exact number was 3.2 million shareholders on March 11th, the last time we got an investor count. They owned more than four fifths of our then 450 million outstanding shares as of that March 11th date. Since then a lot of AMC shares have changed hands.

So, we actually delayed our annual meeting of shareholders to July 29th with a new record date of June 2, and we'll get an updated count of shares outstanding. As of that date, June 2, we'll also get the number of shareholders and their contact information in early June. We did all this in parts so that we could give our current investors the opportunity to make their important voices heard. So, we already know this well before June 2.

These individual investors likely hold a majority of our shares. They own AMC. We work for them. I work for them. So, by definition, their interests and passions are important to AMC. Their interests and passions are important to me.”

During his Live Stream on May 13, Adam Aron reached out to Trey’sTrades to say a few things:

1. AMC completed it’s 43M share at-the-market offering
2. “Shorts should be shitting their pants,” yes, that’s a direct quote, and
3. He scheduled another interview with Trey for “sometime in early June”

Knowing the updated count of shareholders would be completed on June 2nd, I posited that it was very likely that this new interview with Trey will be when we learn exactly what the share count reveals. I don’t pretend to know, though I, like you, have my theories, but all will be put to rest (I believe) during that interview.

UPDATED SHARE COUNT

On June 3rd, Adam Aron revealed a couple of important amendments to his statements from May 13th. Please watch that video here.

• The company completed the sale of 8.5 & 11.5 million shares during the week of May 31st.
• This brings the Q2 cash-raising effort to $1.246B in revenue generation for the company.
• Those 20M shares came from a pool of shares previously marked for executive bonuses.
• There are only 46,000 shares remaining (this should be read as effectively zero) to the company from prior allocation.
• There are now 501,780,240 AMC shares outstanding as of June 2, 2021, the record date for the Shareholder Meeting that is scheduled for July 29, 2021.

SINCE YOU APPARENTLY LOVE DATES

You should receive your proxy materials from your broker sometime after June 3rd. Voting for the Annual Shareholder meeting is expected to begin on June 16 and will continue through July 28, the Shareholder Meeting is scheduled for July 29, 2021.

What is a Broker?

A definition from Investopedia: “A broker is an individual or firm that acts as an intermediary between an investor and a securities exchange.”

Here in the US, we have numerous options. Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and Webull seem to be the consensus of “good” brokers to deal with. The community does not recommend a platform like Robinhood, because of the way it is intermingled with Citadel.

Take action:

How to Leave Robinhood in 48 Hours (by u/Maouwu_)

The CEO Went To YouTube—twice?! Isn’t that a little sus?

I personally think this is what makes Adam Aron a genius. As a CEO, if you go onto a mainstream news outlet with news, you are not “broadcasting” your message, you’re narrow casting to the handful of suits that tune into Fox Business at 2pm on a Tuesday. And, most likely, you’re talking to the very people who, in this case, are shorting your company and praying for your demise.

Adam has been very vocal about his appreciation for the Apes, for the passionate investor/customer this movement has spawned and (I believe) sees Trey’s channel as a direct pipeline to the owners of the company he stewards. We are the audience he needs and the MSM can’t deliver it to someone in his position any more.

I’m a Non-US Resident Ape. Can I Vote?

Unfortunately, no. For this, I will simply hand the mic to Adam Aron:

“Outrageous but true. Many $AMC shareholders live outside the U.S. Especially in the UK and Europe, brokerage firms refuse to facilitate shareholder voting. Costs the firms time and money to do so. Any workarounds to the problem violate U.S. law.  Switch brokers, so you can vote!”

If you are interested in taking Adam Aron’s advice, this Medium post outlines which brokerages will open accounts for non-US residents.

What Happened with Wanda?

Ah yes, Wanda. The MSM version of the story basically went “longtime owner of AMC exited their majority stake in the company and this is a sign of trouble,” but this would be what we call a False Narrative.

Here is an article from the South China Morning Post from 2019, outlining the actions of the Chinese government from April of 2017 that were the precursor to this move by Wanda. They exited out of duty to the Chinese government, not because of any fundamental business issues with AMC.

From AMC:

“Even after the stock sale, Wanda Film Group and AMC will enter into a long term strategy and cooperation agreement, which will facilitate efficiencies through global purchasing efforts and the sharing of best practices. Some of the films made by Wanda will also be shown at select AMC Theatres. This continuing communication between the two companies should create a win-win situation for both Wanda Film Group and for AMC in the cinema and film industries.”

The way the MSM twisted this story is very telling about where their interests lie, which -- SOILER!! -- is not with telling the truth. See also the Let’s Talk About Risk section of this document.

There Will Be F.U.D.

F.U.D. stands for “Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt.” And, as things get worse for the hedge funds and market makers, the level of F.U.D. will increase. They will continue to exploit their relationships with the media in order to push false narratives, create smokescreens to obscure wrong doing and scare the shit out of retail investors hoping to get them to relinquish their positions.

I am not a conspiracy theorist. I’ve just witnessed this over and over and over again since beginning my AMC journey. There is a lot at stake for the short sellers. Please understand, that no information becomes F.U.D. unless you allow it to become F.U.D.

This is a two-thousand year old idea.

“People are not disturbed by things themselves, but by the views they take of those things.”

 — Epictetus

Fear, uncertainty and doubt are perceptions. Other people do not create F.U.D., our perceptions of the world around us creates F.U.D. within us. So, next time you see a headline or watch a YouTube video with an upsetting premise, ask yourself, “what about this headline upsets me?”

There is a temptation to run to the community with these unsettled feelings and “ask questions”, but your feelings of F.U.D. are not equal to the rational due-diligence the community needs.

If you need help processing a feeling, that is fine. Ask the question, but make sure you frame your post that way. Just, be thoughtful. Remember only you control your perceptions.

If you can’t keep your wits when we are driving to the spaceport, what will you do when we load up on the actual rocket? Let alone feel it rumbling underneath us? Or, we are hurtling through the vacuum of space en route to Pluto.

These conspiracy theories flooding Reddit and Twitter are, typically, easily understood, totally not a big deal and say quite a bit about the mental state of those posting them.

Know that the community is here for you. We can” borrow each other’s confidenc”e, to quote Trey. But don’t burden the community with your anxieties before you have taken a few minutes to look at the situation with a rational mind.

Deep breaths, my friends. Make sure you take deep breaths.

How Are More Shares Traded Than Exist in the Float?

This is a big question and requires that we align on a few things, first.

To begin, how is volume calculated?

Volume is the quantity of shares that trade hands -- one stock sold and purchased has a volume of 1. The market is constantly seeking equilibrium and volume is the measure of sales at that equilibrium.

Next, we need to understand the size of AMC’s Total Float. “The Float” is simply the number of regular shares issued to the public for trading, which is a percentage of the total outstanding shares.

After the at-the-market offering closed, AMC has 450M outstanding shares and “free float” of 447M.

On Friday, May 28th, AMC’s daily volume was 657.5M shares -- or, 1.5x the total free float. I didn’t sell a single share -- but I sure as shit bought a few! -- and, I’m guessing you didn’t sell any shares either? So, what gives? Are people paperhanding out of their position? Or is there something else at work?

According to Investopedia, this is “possible, but incredibly rare”. There are three explanations that I see contributing to such an event -- and, it seems most likely that we are beginning to see the three reasons compound one another.

1. The first, and most likely, is that as AMC began to rip, day traders got in and out of positions several times throughout the trading day, trying to capitalize on momentum, Those multiple back and forths, buying, selling, then buying again, could give the appearance of significant volume.
2. HFTs. Remember how, in the Citadel section, I noted that they had technology in place that put them at an advantage over their competitors, as well as retail investors? Well, high-frequency trading (HFTs) are a meaningful part of their technological tool set. These computer scripts, highly efficient trading algorithms, are able to trade countless shares in fractions of a second. While HFTs are not allowed to be used for “predatory trading” they are used to do just that. And, by now you should not be surprised to learn that Citadel’s founder, Ken Griffin is a staunch defender of HFT practices. HFTs are used to facilitate short ladder attacks and spoofing schemes, both of which are illegal.
3. Dark Pools. Sounds nefarious, right? Like everything man invents to address a real-world issue, he also figures out how to abuse for selfish gain. Such are dark pools, which came about in the 80s as a way to facilitate large volume block trades without subjecting the seller to the loss of value that comes with a big sell off. Today there are 50 dark pools operating in the United States and these opaque markets -- literally, a place for shadow trading among their members -- like all things done in the shadows, are susceptible to conflicts of interest.

Matt Kohrs has a Dark Pool video that specifically pertains to AMC that is quite good.

Jeff Forbes hypothesized on June 17th that brokers are using the dark pool to handle buys, but putting all sells straight on the open market in order to manipulate price.

One last point on Dark Pools and their reporting of volume. There is no standard. So, large amounts of Dark Pool trading could potentially inflate or deflate the daily volume. According to Chuck Schumer (please put aside your political bias for a moment), his letter to the SEC from 2009, and the nearly unchanged situation twelve years later, is very telling:

“This trade volume data is not standardized -- for example, some ATSs “double count” by counting a matched order as two trades, while others treat a matched order as only one trade. I am very concerned that nobody seems to know the precise amount of trading volume that occurs in the non-displayed markets, and that this information is not available more frequently than quarterly.”

Bringing these things together, in the context of daily volume, and you can see how it’s possible that the same few shares could be trading hands hundreds of times throughout a trading day, leading to a volume and turnover ratio that appear incongruent with the size of a stock’s total float.

A Note About News Catalysts

If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, you feed him for a lifetime.  So, rather than addressing the revolving door of breaking news stories individually, I thought it would be more helpful to address the topic of news catalysts, generally.

In the above section addressing the prevalent nature of fear, uncertainty and doubt, I noted that the very wealthy hedge funds leverage their relationships with the media and their “credibility” as “experts” to spread stories that serve the narrative they need (which does not always align with the truth). They are hoping to nudge interpretation of the news in their favor.

But, the opposite can happen, as well. Positive news catalysts are moments when the news on a stock is unmistakably good for the valuation of a company or industry and no amount of spin can overturn public sentiment. The lifting of mask mandates in movie theaters, for example. Or the prevalence of the vaccine. Each of these things signals that the tide is turning for every business sector adversely affected by the pandemic.

Just this morning, there were two major news catalysts that could help us: the impressive Memorial Weekend Box Office & the sale of 8.5M shares to Mudrick Capital.

This is the idea behind Malcolm Gladwell’s Tipping Point quote at the top of this document. A news catalyst acts as pressure, when it comes in just the right place at just the right moment it can set all the dominoes falling.

Just look at Google Trends. As of right now, the search term “AMC squeeze” is at an all time high because we have had positive news catalyst after positive news catalyst and each has compounded with the others, helping create a swell of enthusiasm for AMC, which in turn builds snowball-like momentum.

A Parting Thought

As I was putting the finishing touches on the initial draft of this document, I came across a Twitter post from Seamus Blackley, Father of the X-Box that said “Be Senna.” Now, I am an ardent Formula 1 fan and the legend of Ayrton Senna, on track, looms large in my psyche. He is, without question, the fastest driver to ever sit behind the wheel.

But, the post was accompanied by a video I hadn’t seen. Senna exited his car as others raced by to assist a driver who had wrecked. This is not something that happens. Ever. My curiosity piqued. And the story I discovered is instructive.

During qualifying for the Belgium Grand Prix in 1992, Erik Comas hit the barrier at over 200 mph and was knocked unconscious. His foot was stuck on the throttle, flooding the engine with fuel and creating the potential for a deadly explosion.

Senna was the first driver to the scene of the accident, but instead of driving past as is typically the case in Formula 1, the legendary driver pulled his car to the edge of the track and sprinted across the racetrack, dodging oncoming cars, to help the unconscious Comas.

Like all of Senna’s on-track heroics, this was a daring move rich with courage, but this one he infused with total selflessness.

I wish to leave you with this image, because that is what is required of us now, selfless courage. In a normal world, we would be competing alongside each other on the racetrack of life. But, we’ve happened upon a terrible situation -- reckless greed threatens the livelihoods of millions and risks the financial wellbeing of the whole nation. A situation such as this requires us to lay aside our racers instinct and demonstrate selfless courage.

There will be other days for racing, but today, we must respond not as race drivers, not as investors, but as human beings.