Big Ten Expansion

College athletics has always gone through changes over the last 130 years, but during the second half of Jim Delany’s tenure with the Big Ten the changes accelerated, with expansion dominating a lot of it – re: additions of Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers. Conference expansion during Jim’s leadership of the Big Ten was focused on the number of TV sets a school would bring to the Big Ten, contiguous states, research ranking, and AAU status. Under Jim, no university that wasn’t in the AAU, besides Notre Dame, would get admitted to the Big Ten. However, an interesting thing to note is the feedback that the Big Ten gave Florida State University when the Big Ten took Maryland- improve your research ranking and we will be interested, which Florida State University has done. In the year 2022, Florida State University IS a real candidate to be admitted into the Big Ten.

From 2019 to the start of 2021, the Big Ten sub-committee on expansion didn’t meet. However, informal discussions within the Big Ten were taking place in the fall and winter of 2020/21 for what Kevin Warren wants to for adding new members to the Big Ten. Kevin wants to expand with strong basketball and football traditions, while also maintaining research integrity. When the sub-committee for expansion met in early 2021, they were exploring expansion candidates. Four schools the Big Ten discussed were: The University of Missouri, the University of Virginia, the University of North Carolina, and the University of Toronto. I don’t claim any informal or formal outreach efforts were done with those four universities. The University of Missouri is under a GOR for the length of the SEC TV contract with ESPN. At that time, in early 2021, the Big Ten was not exploring the idea of adding Pac-12 schools to the Big Ten. But the question is, where Pac-12 schools on the list that Kevin Warren received by the university presidents of the Big Ten? Yes. Others that are assumed to be on that list are Stanford University, the University of Los Angeles, and the University of Washington. During the time that the Big Ten were informally talking with FOX about what new members could be added to the Big Ten, the University of Texas and the University of Oklahoma were not on the radar as far as starting the process of leaving the Big 12. Discussions for the University of Texas and the University of Oklahoma were expected to happen a couple of years later (2023), not 5 years before they would leave the Big 12. There were about 5 people between the University of Oklahoma and the University of Texas that knew discussions were taking place to leave to the SEC. While I can’t confirm this to be 100% true, the assumption is high likely correct that no person among universities or conference leaderships at the Big Ten Conference, ACC, or Pac-12 were aware of what the University of Oklahoma and the University of Texas were doing in early 2021. If the leak during the SEC media days didn’t happen, the SEC would have announced new members their conference in late 2022 or early 2023, and the college football playoff expanded. That leak changed college athletics forever and there is no going back.

In early 2021 the discussions were already starting for two super conferences to form – 20 teams each (yes, the Big Ten and SEC). However, in early 2021 the concept of the Big Ten being able to expand with the University of Virginia and the University of North Carolina was not yet realistic due to the GOR. Discussions and analysis took place to see if it would be possible for ACC schools to get out of the GOR.

In the summer of 2021, the University of Texas and the University of Oklahoma applied for membership to the SEC and were accepted into the SEC. There were no informal or formal requests or discussions with the Big Ten. A lot of anger transpired among other conference leaders when the Houston Chronical leak happened. Due to anger and push back, conference leaders and university presidents were talking and asking questions about where things are going, what are we doing with college athletics, and more. But remember, before the leak happened, there were already discussions taking place about two super-conferences with 20 school members. When the anger was in the forefront of the public eye, The Big Ten was NOT the leader in forming The Alliance. I suspect FOX and Kevin Warren saw a way to use The Alliance as a leverage tool for a specific business outcome – we pay you more for the TV contract if you block playoff expansion and get it to open bids so we (FOX) can bid on playoff games. The Alliance was started by Jim Philips of the ACC. Jim talked with the Pac –12 commissioner and talked him into the concept of an Alliance and then Kevin Warren was brought into it. Now the “secret”. When The Alliance was formed, the Big Ten had already formed the expansion committee, Kevin Warren already had a list of schools given to him by the university presidents of the Big Ten universities, and then Kevin Warren went to work with FOX for expansion discussions.

While the public was talking about The Alliance, the Big Ten and the University of Southern California had already started informal back and forths. What I am not clear on is, did the informal conversations start with the University of California – Los Angeles at the same time?

The decision for the University of Southern California was not a difficult one. Leave and become an independent and see what the market value is for the football brand, stay and make less money than every Big Ten and SEC school for TV payouts. The Pac-12 commissioner was told, by the University of Southern California, when he was hired that they would leave if the financial gap could not be closed.

Now to the spring of 2021. The Big Ten started conversations with their new TV deal. The dollar value for the upcoming TV deal for the Big Ten was valued at a dollar figure higher than the Big Ten was projecting. Once FOX and the Big Ten agreed to the Tier 1 rights from a pricing perspective, it was then known that the TV value for the Big Ten should exceed the $1B mark annually. When the Sports Business Journal published that CBS wants a 2:30 pm Central Time football game, NBC wants a game to televise around Notre Dame games, the FOX deal already agreed to in principle, and the possibility of Amazon for streaming rights, the 14 school membership of the Big Ten would not bring enough content in order to fill all of the time slots available during a football Saturday. It was loud and clear at that moment that Pac-12 schools were going to the Big Ten. Another data point for expansion was going to happen due to Big Ten employees following and unfollowing twitter accounts that would mention the words USC and Big Ten in the same tweet. While this news sent a shockwave across the United States and college athletics world, the evidence of expansion was out there for anyone to uncover it. The next steps in conference expansion are not going to be as secretive since the candidates that the Big Ten will expand with from the Pac-12 are already publicly known.

Remember that informal conversations had already started with USC and UCLA SEPARATELY in April of 2022, the Big Ten then started conversations internally after each of those schools called the Big Ten for what dollar value could they bring to the TV deal that the Big Ten is negotiating, which is a 15% to 18% increase.

Was it a hard choice for the University of Southern California and the University of California – Los Angeles to leave the Pac-12 when, as I mentioned earlier, the Pac-12 commissioner could not show evidence that the financial gap could get closed and be $700M in the hole over the next 10 years behind every Big Ten and SEC university? You can’t complete at the highest level of college athletics and be successful at the highest level if you are that far behind financially.

Now that the Big Ten has shown that the old ways of Jim Delany conference expansion are out the door, an entirely new mindset has arrived at the Big Ten for what the conference will become over the next century. No longer is the main criteria TV sets, AAU status, etc. Now it’s about brands, land grab (aka population) and being the main market force. Why does that matter? With college football’s eventual breakaway from the NCAA and likelihood of a new division forming for the top football conferences, you want as many big brands in your conference as possible. With more expansion coming for the Big Ten that will include Pac-12 schools, the Big Ten will be the top market force from New York/New Jersey to Los Angeles. In the coming years the Big Ten will become a market force from Virginia down to Florida, the country's only national conference at the top of college athletics.

The $1B TV deal value that the Big Ten is valued at in 2022 will continue to grow and eventually reach over $2B in the next 6 years.

With the Big Ten now controlling Los Angeles as a Big Ten footprint, the Big Ten Network will have $100M in new revenue annually, FOX and other networks will be able to charge more for advertisements as better games can be scheduled and televised as a result of increased viewership.

In the end, it’s always about money. It always has been. It always will be. Universities are businesses that need to generate revenue and when you have a deficit, you seek more revenue. Anyone that says it isn’t about the money, it’s about the money.

The University of South California and the University of California - Los Angeles chose the Big Ten because they can make more money, better exposure, joining the top of college athletics and being a member of one of the two super conferences. The student athletes get better exposure, better competition in some sports, and a better experience. Yes, they will have some more flying hours, but how do people forget the days of traveling by trains.

Now FOX and the Big Ten can game plan for continued population grabs, new markets to generate new revenue, and continue to expand the Big Ten brand, with partnerships with NBC and Amazon.

Up next for the Big Ten is to eventually bring in Notre Dame, more Pac-12 schools, and then a group of ACC schools, creating a 24 to 28 team conference.

As a side note, in our lifetime, the Big Ten will expand internationally.