COP28 climate diplomacy briefing - Mon 11 GST TEXT
The latest iteration of the Global Stocktake text has landed.
We expect strong pushback from climate vulnerable countries and blocs committed to a strong fossil fuel phaseout commitment. There is no mention of phase down or phase out. In an 11.5k word text the term 'fossil fuel' is used 3 times. The ingredients are there but there’s no recipe of note.
Delegates from the EU, AILAC (Latin American progressives) AOSIS (Small Islands) will struggle to support the text as it stands given there is no emphasis on action in this critical decade which is key to keep 1.5C within reach.
COP boss Al-Jaber will address the media at 6.10pm local time. He will face questions over the last of strong references to phase out, a weak ‘could’ referring to fossil fuel cuts and a general lack of urgency compared to what the science demands.
Key takeaways:
1 - Fossil fuel phaseout/energy transition - reference on reducing fossil fuel consumption and production exists but no urgency to take any action in this critical decade which is key for 1.5C
2 - There are no options in text on any point. What are parties meant to negotiate on? Is this a floor or a ceiling?
3 - The commitments on finance, on support mechanisms, on holding to the science, are scattered all over the text. How should we understand what the intention of this text is?
4 - The words "oil and gas" do not appear anywhere in the text and the phase out of coal is optional. Is this a weakening of previous commitments on coal at COP26 and 27?
Longer analysis
*Mitigation
-Key sentence is 39 (e) and the reference to net-zero and 2050 timeframe make it sound like BAU for fossil fuel industry with abatement technologies coming in at one point: “Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science;”
-Talks about “rapidly” phasing down unabated coal and limit the permitting of new and unabated coal, this is stronger than Glasgow language but has no clear time indication
-Emissions, not sources, framing also included
-Focus on abatement technologies- CCS
-Tripling renewables and doubling efficiency in with a 2030 timing
-Special focus for non-co2 emissions-methane
-Whole paragraph 39 starts with “calls upon Parties to take actions that could include, inter alia” which makes it an optional menu
*1.5C - reference to PA goals 1.5C and 2C reaffirmed but still dropped from preamble
-Strong reference back, highlighting the peaking before 2025, reduction 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, clearly
-Strong language “resolves” and “underscores” on equity and CBDR
-Notes historic responsibility
-Language on pre-2020 gaps on emission reductions through KP1 and KP2 periods
-Recalls PA 4.4 which provides developed countries will have to take the lead with economy-wide reductions and encourages developing to continue with mitigation efforts with view to move toward economy-wide emission reductions
*Timelines -
-Nice idea: COP28, COP29 and COP30 to have activities in 2024-2025 to discuss cooperation to strengthen NDCs
- shall submit next NDCs 9-12 months before COP30 in 2025 (so Q1 2025), encouragement to have 2035 end date in NDCs
*Adaptation
-Recognition of finance access issues of developing countries toward adaptation
-Strong emphasis on adaptation finance gap
-Calls for urgent, incremental, transformational, country-driven adaptation action based on different national circumstances
-Recognises link between sustainable development and adaptation; highlights lower risk of maladaptation and potential co-benefits
-Recognises adaptation as an iterative process and the importance of the means of implementation
-Stresses the role of global unity in long-term transformational and incremental adaptation effort
-Recognises need to significantly scale up adaptation finance; considers the need for public and grant-based resources
*Finance
-Recalls PA4.5 which provides for support from developed countries to developing countries
-“Deep regret” 100bn haven’t been met in 2021
-Notes the lack of definitional clarity on climate finance
-Notes the need to scale up grant-based and concessional finance
-Highlights finance gap and the compounding effect of macroeconomic conditions on developing countries
- Recognises the need to align finance flows with low-emission pathways (PA Art. 2.1(c)) but notes with concern that progress has been uneven across sectors, regions, and actors
- Urges the delivery of 100bn by 2025 and calls for better coordination between developed parties in doing so
-Underscores the importance of reforming the financial architecture- multilateral development banks and rating agencies
*Nature
-The historic COP15 deal for nature is referenced, marrying nature and climate action
-In the mitigation section, language remains around ‘efforts to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030’ remain putting Glasgow pledges into legal text
-The importance of forests in reaching the Paris goals is reflected, and a specific mention of Article 5 (REDD+)
- Reflects the need to ‘mobilise resources’
*Food
-A first time reference to ‘resilient food systems’ has made it into the adaptation section
-Food missing from the mitigation section - no reference to food systems transformation or agriculture emissions - food is 1/3 of global GHG emissions and needs to be in new NDCs