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M a p  l a s t  P&F  C h a r t

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2011-Jun-27 19-47 (GMT+01:00) Paris[~~~> BJF Trading Group.Excel Chart.]

2011-Jun-28 22-08 (GMT+01:00) Paris

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The USD/JPY gained upside momentum and broke above weekly highs at 80.95 and rose further surpassing 81.05 (June 15, 16 highs). The pair peaked so far at 81.20, the strongest level in almost 4 week. Greenback remains near session highs with momentum.

According to Slobodan Drvenica, analyst at Windsor Brokers Ltd. the break above 81.05 could signal a near-term base and “open way for test of next key levels at 81.76 and 82.20, along with dynamic resistances at 81.16/60 and 82.20, daily 55; 90; 200 day MA’s.”

US bond yields are rising sharply in the market weakening the Yen across the board. The Japanese currency is trading at daily lows against its European rivals.

The Dollar recovered in the last hours against European currencies and also trimmed losses versus commodity currencies.

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FXstreet.com (California) - USD/JPY advanced into the 81.00 price zone during Monday's trade (fresh 7-day high) on the back of falling commodity prices, closing the session 70 pips above its open.

 "Despite close to the area, pair is showing no much bullish strength at the moment, yet on contrary, turning lower: price seems ready to cross 20 SMA upside down, while indicators struggle around their midlines," explains Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com.

 At the time of writing, USD/JPY is quoted in the 80.75 price zone, around 10 pips below its starting price. To the downside, support levels lie at 80.80, 80.40 and 80.00. To the upside, resistance levels lie at 81.10, 81.40 and 81.75.

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USD/JPY continued to consolidate in a narrowing range. Will it break out of it now? Tankan Manufacturing Index is the key event this week. Here’s an outlook for the major market-moving events.

Last week trade balance figures provided another reassuring sign for the overall improvement in Japan’s economy by maintaining the gap between imports and exports at- 0.47T yen contrasting expectations of a bigger gap of -0.54T. Will this upward trend continue?

USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.


Narrowing Channel

As seen in the chart, the pair’s trading range is enclosed by a narrowing channel. Uptrend support began at June, while downtrend resistance is with us since mid-May. These lines meet on July 5th. The breakout is likely to happen beforehand.

I am bullish on USD/JPY.

2011-Jun-20 10-11 (GMT+01:00) Paris[~~~> BJF Trading Group.Excel Chart.]

2011-Jun-21 08-05 (GMT+01:00) Paris

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New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forecast for June

A noteworthy improvement in Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate forecasts has coincided with a fairly sharp New Zealand Dollar recovery. Indeed, the NZD trades at fresh post-float highs, and relative yield expectations have likely played a part. Yet neutral commentary from RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard could put a damper on such forecasts—especially as the New Zealand Dollar itself could represent an impediment to continued economic recovery out of the small island nation.

Despite the New Zealand Dollar’s robust yield advantage over its US namesake, we view continued yield-driven strength as relatively less likely. NZDUSD gains will likely need to come from commodity price gains and/or broader US Dollar weakness.

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The New Zealand Dollar has only its second down week against every other major currency since the coordinated intervention on March 17 on behalf of the Yen, which is more of a testament to the market’s desire for more a more moderate ‘risky’ asset, than say, the Australian Dollar – the Kiwi offers a 2.50 percent yield while the Aussie offers a 4.75 percent yield. Nonetheless, amid increased uncertainty in the global markets as it appears that not only the Euro-zone is becoming increasingly fragile, but also the United States is experiencing a soft patch, investors flood the Kiwi, which has been the strongest currency over the past three-months, in favor of the funding currencies with renewed uncertainty on the immediate horizon.

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NZD/USD:The intense uptrend looks to have finally found some form of a cap after surging to fresh 26-year highs by 0.8300, with the market stalling out to alleviate immediate topside pressures. From here, look for deeper setbacks, with the latest break below 0.8070 setting up an interday double top formation that now projects a fresh downside extension towards the 0.7800 area over the coming sessions. In the interim, any intraday rallies should be well capped ahead of 0.8150.

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NZD/USD weekly outlook: June 20-24

Forex Pros – Last week saw the New Zealand dollar rebound from a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as risk appetite improved amid renewed hopes for a solution to Greece’s ongoing debt crisis.

NZD/USD hit 0.7971 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since May 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8126 by close of trade on Friday, slumping 0.89% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7971, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.8206, Wednesday’s high.

Following a meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel dropped demands that bondholders should share the burden of a second Greek bailout package and signaled support for a voluntary rollover of Greek debt.        

Mounting fears that the debt-laden country was close to defaulting on its sovereign debt pressured commodity prices and drove the kiwi to a three-week low on Thursday.

The kiwi fell sharply on Wednesday, as Greek sovereign debt issues overshadowed data showing that domestic retail sales rose for the first time in three quarters.

Statistics New Zealand said retail sales rose 0.9% in the first quarter, compared with expectations for a 1.0% increase, after declining by 0.4% in the previous quarter.

The kiwi was broadly weaker on Monday after a series of aftershocks hit the south island city of Christchurch, raising concerns over the impact of the tremors on New Zealand’s economic recovery just four months after an earthquake killed 180 people in the same city.

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve is to hold its policy setting meeting, which will be followed by a closely watched press conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Investors are hoping that Bernanke will shed some light on the banks view of the need for further monetary easing.

2011-Jun-13 12-44 (GMT+01:00) Paris[~~~> BJF Trading Group.Excel Chart.]

2011-Jun-16 08-33 (GMT+01:00) Paris

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Greece Debt Crisis

Thousands of people gathered on the streets of Athens to protest government cutbacks required to avoid a default on the government's debt.  The Greek protests forced Government shake up.  Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said Wednesday he would shuffle his cabinet and demand a vote of confidence in Parliament.

"Before we even went into substantial talks, the opposition brought up conditions that can't be accepted," Mr. Papandreou said in his address. "I will continue on the same path.  Tomorrow I will form a new government and seek a vote of confidence from parliament."

"Before we even went into substantial talks, the opposition brought up conditions that can't be accepted," Mr. Papandreou said in his address. "I will continue on the same path.  Tomorrow I will form a new government and seek a vote of confidence from parliament."

Technical Corner:

EUR/USD is down 1.2% on the week.  The next support level is 1.4082 followed by 1.3841.  There's two days left in the week and volatility does not look ready to recede anytime soon.

The 100 Daily Simple Moving Average (SMA) level is 1.4151 and interesting to note today's low was at 1.4156.

200 Daily SMA is at 1.3816.

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Traders were turning to the U.S. dollar [.DXY  75.15        0.82  (+1.11%)   ] as a safe haven, boosting the greenback about 0.8 percent against a basket of global currencies. Treasurys were marginally higher in price, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note edging down to 3.08 percent.

The dollar index .DXY, measuring the greenback against a basket of

currencies, strengthened.

 Euro zone ministers failed to reach agreement on how private holders of Greek debt should share the costs of a new bailout, putting the onus  on the leaders of Germany and France to forge a deal later this week.

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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Is The Recent Rebound In The U.S. Dollar Index Just Temporary?

By Jim Donnelly, Olson Global Markets

Since the middle of June 2010, the U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has fallen steadily lower aided by ultra lower interest rates, Quantitative Easing part 1 and of course QE2. Interestingly, the dollar’s drop has occurred despite serious sovereign debt issues in Europe. This may be due to a series of austerity measures adopted by the EU some months ago. An inflation fighting hike in the European Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 1.25% in April also helped send the dollar lower. Nevertheless, a large part of the continuous rise in commodity prices has been blamed on the dollar’s weakness. But, in fairness, unusual global weather events as well as growth in China, and to a lesser degree India, have been major factors as well.

Nevertheless, the end of QE2 as well as a likely plan to cut U.S. government spending over the next 10-to-12 years could act as a drag on U.S. growth going forward,

thus cushioning the dollar’s downfall. The real question is whether potential fiscal policy changes will give the dollar more than just a temporary boost.

At the moment, oversold conditions on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suggest that the dollar will likely rise over the short-run. A break above a steep downward sloping trend line that comes in at 75.70, if it occurs, would be seen as a big plus for the greenback. If it can also break above the “backside” of former trend line support (now resistance) at 77.10, an impressive extension higher in the DXY could occur, particularly since a “dollar short” position has been a ubiquitous play for currency traders for some time.

With all this in mind, however, there is the possibility that the Federal Reserve could respond to sluggish economic conditions in the U.S. with another creative stimulus tool that could send the dollar lower once again.

For now, keep an “eye” on the 75.70 level for a directional guide over the short-run. Keep the other “eye” on the 77.10 level for a longer-term outlook.


"P&F DXY1440  Box Size 75X3 or(2.76%) HI/LO

Data 92.63 - 70.7  ~ 74.71 Month  ~ 2274 Day

Database 1614 records 74.42 (Last Close)

2005-03-23 00~00 ~ 6.23 Years

2011-06-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris

BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"



































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The dollar rallied from a strong technical support level last week and is now showing signs of potential bullishness. A break of the most recent high of the dollar will confirm the bullish trend.

On a fundamental level, the sell-off in the US equity markets increased risk aversion, leading to demand for the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven.

The bounce in the dollar is just a correction to the multi-year downtrend and may not last long. We believe the greenback will resume its downtrend after a correction,

but till such time, one must switch from a bearish to a bullish bias.

The dollar had a very wide support range between 73.92 and 72.27. On June 7, the dollar hit 73.88 and rallied. The definition of a bullish trend is when prices make higher lows and higher highs. A higher low is made when the latest low in price is higher than the previous low and a higher high is when the latest high in price is higher than the previous high.

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2011-Jun-06 14-09 (GMT+01:00) Paris[~~~> BJF Trading Group.Excel Chart.]

2011-Jun-11 10-47 (GMT+01:00) Paris

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EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD failed to continued its bullish momentum yesterday after unable to stay above 1.4650 and found a support around 1.4550 which could be an important support at this phase. I am still in a bullish mode for this pair but something came up to my mind when looking to the hourly chart. A head and shoulders (H&S) bearish formation might be in the making especially if price finds a resistance around 1.4650 and retest 1.4550 which could be the neckline. So in order to make sure that no H&S formation will be formed at this phase we need a clear break above 1.4700 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.4750 – 1.4939. On the downside, a clear break below 1.4550 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.4500 even lower.

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The euro strengthened and the dollar weakened on speculation the European Central Bank will signal more interest-rate increases today. U.S. stock-index futures advanced and oil gained.

The euro appreciated 0.4 percent against the yen at 7:25 a.m. in New York. The New Zealand dollar climbed against 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The yield on the Greek 10-year bond jumped 46 basis points, and Portuguese two-year yields increased 36 basis points. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.4 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index swung between gains and losses. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 1.7 percent. Crude oil rose 0.5 percent.


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Review EURUSD continued its upward trend yesterday, a trend which began on the 23rd May and has seen the Euro appreciate in value against USD by 5.2% in two weeks. Positive news from the IMF regarding the next tranche of bailout funds for Greece as well as better than expected German factory orders helped the single currency bounce off the overnight lows, which were right on the 61.8% fib retracement level of the May sell off and break above Monday’s high. After initial volatility following Bernanke’s speech late on in the session the USD weakened as Bernanke said that the US economic recovery was frustratingly slow and warranted continued accommodative monetary tightening. EURUSD closed on its 1 month highs at 1.4687.

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Euro / US Dollar

The Euro exchange rate made widespread gains against the majors yesterday, on speculation that officials will contain the sovereign debt crisis and proceed to raise interest rates over the coming month. The single currency reached the highest level in a month versus the U.S Dollar, advancing 0.8% on the day to 1.47. The Dollar was subjected to renewed selling pressure, as global risk appetite improved.

There was a warning from a Chinese economic institute that China should be wary of holding too many dollar-denominated assets, which also triggered initial selling pressure on the Dollar. Although the comments were later removed from the website, overall confidence remained fragile. The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to say that the economy remains in need of boost today and that may prompt further speculation that the Fed will embark on further quantitative easing.

In the Euro-zone, there was renewed optimism that Euro-zone leaders would be able to agree a fresh rescue package for Greece. The Euro was supported by expectations that the ECB would adopt a hawkish rhetoric in the monthly press conference on Thursday and the single currency encountered strong resistance just above 1.47 at the close of trading last night.

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Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. As discussed before, pull back from 1.4938 should have completed at 1.3969 already. Further rise should be seen to 1.4938 high first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4516 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

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The Euro had a great week, recovering some of the losses it encountered during May. The upcoming week’s highlight is the rate decision with the press conference of Trichet. Here’s an outlook for 9 events awaiting us, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

We’ve seen some risk averse moves in the past week: Bad US figures weakened EUR/USD, such as in the ADP release. But eventually, the hopes for Greece pushed the pair higher, as well as the broad weak picture for the US, seen in Non-Farm Payrolls.

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