Four Yankee Managers

Kenneth Matinale

Last updated: January 22, 2012

See previous work: Evaluating the records of great managers

Click to see supporting data.

Pythagoras unchained! The Bill James equation using a fixed exponent of 1.83 is applied to the four great Yankee managers, both for their full careers and for their Yankee years. RS = runs scored. RA = runs allowed.

(RS^1.83)/((RS^1.83)+(RA^1.83))

Miller Huggins 1918-1929: 12 seasons, 6 pennants, 3 WS (2-1 sweeps)

Joe McCarthy 1931-1946: 15 seasons, 8 pennants, 7 WS (3 sweeps)

Casey Stengel 1949-1960: 12 seasons, 10 pennants, 7 WS (1 sweep)

Joe Torre 1996-2007: 12 seasons, 11 Div, 1 wild card, 6 pennants, 4 WS (2 sweeps)

Note: Joe McCarthy's 35 games managing the 1946 Yankees are not included in his Yankee years but are included for his career. The 1946 Yankees were minus 6, so McCarthy gets a big break.

Some prefer another method, which accounts for higher scoring seasons and uses a variable exponent (VX): = ((rs + ra)/g)^.285. rs = runs scored. ra = runs allowed. g = games.

(RS^VX)/((RS^VX)+(RA^VX))

AL scoring averages for their Yankee seasons:

Huggins 4.7

McCarthy: 4.86

Stengel: 4.46

Torre: 5

For their Yankee years the basic regular season numbers are shocking. Here are the net Pythagorean win difference totals (actual wins minus Pythagorean estimates) and the number of Pythagorean positive and negative Yankee seasons:

Torre 41 (10-2)

Huggins 13 (9-3)

Stengel 8 (5-5)

McCarthy 0 Zero! (6-7)

Using the variable exponent method yields this:

Torre 31 (10-2)

Huggins 5 (5-4)

Stengel 3 (5-5)

McCarthy -13 (5-8)

With the second method Torre’s lead over McCarthy increases from 41 to 44 extra wins and the relative positions of the four managers remain the same.

Here are their average AL ranks using the variable exponent method followed by top 3 finishes:

Huggins 4.2 - 1,2,3

McCarthy 4.8 - 1,1,3,3

Stengel 3.7 - 1,2,2,2,3

Torre 4.7 (includes finishes of 13 and 11; if those are replaced with 8 Torre’s average is 4) 1,1,2,3,3

Of course, Torre was competing in the AL East division. His average rank in division is 1.75. He ranked first 8 of 12 seasons. Here are all of Torre’s division ranks:

1,5,1,1,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,3.

Torre dominates both Pythagorean measurements.

McCarthy probably had the most talented players of any manager ever. His first Yankee team in 1931 had NINE Hall of Fame players, the most of any team ever. Those 1931 Yankees were minus six and finished 13.5 games behind the Philadelphia Athletics who were plus 10 games based on the MLB Pythagorean theorem. From 1931 through 1942 McCarthy had at least one of the following: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio.

Huggins, of course, had Ruth from 1920 through 1929 and Gehrig as a regular from 1925 through 1929.

Stengel had Yogi Berra (AL MVP 1951, 1954, 1955) his entire time managing the Yankees, Mickey Mantle (AL MVP 1956, 1957, later under Ralph Houk1962) 1951-1960 and DiMaggio 1949-1951 (Joe had one big season for Stengel, 1950 when he led AL in slugging).

Torre had Derek Jeter during his entire Yankee tenure and later Alex Rodriguez 2004-2007 (AL MVP 2005, 2007, previously 2003 for Texas).

World Series

Huggins:

- 3-3

- sweeps 2-1

- lost his only seven game WS

- games 18-15 .545

McCarthy:

- best winning percentage games with at least ten games: 30-13 .698 (29-9 .763 with Yanks)

- best winning percentage series for at least three series: 7-2 .777 (lost one with Cubs)

- most WS won: 7-2 .777 tied with Stengel; 7-1 .875 with Yankees.

- most sweeps won: 3

- second most consecutive WS won: 4

- won six consecutive WS managed: 1932, 1936, 1937, 1938, 1939, 1941; lost 1929 with Cubs, lost 1942 with Yanks, won 1943 with Yanks.

- no 7 game WS

Stengel:

- most games won: 36-26 .587

- most WS won: 7-3 .700 tied with McCarthy

- most consecutive WS won: 5

- 6 of 10 WS went 7 games (3-3)

- all three WS lost went 7 games

Torre:

- third most consecutive WS won: 3

- second best winning percentage games with at least ten games: 21-11 .656

- fifth most games won: 21-11 .656

McCarthy has the best Yankee WS record of the four but both Stengel and Torre have excellent records, too. Huggins only distinction is that his Yankees swept his final two WS.

Torre’s Yankee playoff series

- made playoffs all 12 seasons: 11 division titles, one wild card

ALDS:

- games 28-22 .560

- series 7-5 .583

- sweeps 2-0 1.000

- 5 games series 2-2 .500

ALCS:

- games 27-14 .659

- series 6-1 .857

- sweeps none

- 7 games series 1-1 .500

Torre’s Yankee ALCS record is excellent.

Winning Pennants

For Yankees it’s all about winning.

How to measure Torre’s six pennants going through the playoff gauntlet against Stengel’s ten pennants? During Torre’s Yankee years the AL had 4 of 14 (.285714286 about 28.5%) teams qualify for the playoffs. Torre’s teams were division winners in 11 of 12 seasons but that did not result in any real distinction. Torre’s Yanks were the wild card in their other playoff appearance.

Method 1:

Torre’s playoff appearances equate to 28.5% of a pennant. If we subtract that from one and divide by two for the two playoff series needed to win a pennant and add the result to 28.5% for each series won we may approximate the value of Torre’s teams to Stengel’s.

Torre won six pennants so we can start with a base of six. Of his remaining six Yankee seasons, Torre’s Yanks won only one ALDS.

.28571428571429 * 6 = 1.71428571428571 six playoffs

(1 - .28571428571429) / 2 = .35714285714286 one ALDS won

1.71428571428571 + .35714285714286 = 2.07142857142857

That adds two pennants to Torre's 6 for a total of 8, which ties Torre with McCarthy who needed 25% more Yankee seasons, 15. However, Torre is still short of Stengel's 10 pennants in the same number of seasons as Torre, 12.

Yankee pennants per Yankee season:

Stengel: 10/12 = .833

Torre: 6/12 = .500 (8/12 = .667)

McCarthy: 8/15 = .533

Huggins: 6/12 = .500

Stengel excels by this method followed by Torre, McCarthy and Huggins.

Method 2:

See previous work: Evaluating the records of great managers

The odds of a Torre Yankee team winning the pennant in the MLB tournament era are about twice as high as for a Stengel Yankee team.

Stengel: one out of 8: 12.5% (.125)

Torre:

- making playoff: four out of 14: 28.5%

- winning ALDS: one out of two: 50%

- winning ALCS: one out of two: 50%

To get through the first round: .285 * .5 = .1425

Getting through two rounds: .1425 * .5 = .07125

The numbers are simpler for NL, which has 16 teams:

(1 of 4) times (1 of 2) times (1 of 2): .25 * .5 * .5 = .0625

Let’s use NL odds just to make this simpler even though it helps Torre a little.

Torre reaching the ALCS is equivalent in odds to Stengel winning the pennant. Let’s try a point system that reflects all this.

- making playoff: 4

- winning ALDS: 8

- winning ALCS: 16

Stengel winning the pennant is worth 8 points.

Stengel won 10 pennants so he gets 80 points.

Torre won 6 pennants (ALCS) so he gets 96 points (6*16 points).

Torre won one other ALDS so he gets another 8 points.

Torre made the playoffs another five times for another 20 points (5*4 points).

That gives Torre 124 points to Stengel’s 80 in the same number of seasons.

*** The End ***