2012 OSU Fan Survey
Thanks to everyone who took the time to complete the survey. This year the survey was capped at 1,000 responses. I know some of you weren’t able to complete the survey this time around because of the cap, but I hope you still enjoy the results. As always, I owe a big thank you to each of the message boards for allowing me to post the survey each year, and once again @pistolsguy helped me reach a broader audience.
This survey started as a way to guage OSU fans’ collective expectations for the 2008 season. Now, in its fifth year, the survey continues to evolve to (hopefully) inform you about your fellow OSU fans and to provide a little entertainment in the last couple weeks before the season starts. I certainly enjoy thinking of new questions and analyzing the results each year.
I enjoyed your comments and sprinkled in a few of them throughout the summary.
If you have any questions for me you can reach out to me on twitter or anywhere the survey is posted. Enjoy!
What are the chances OSU will win the following game:
First, in chronological order:
Now, simply add up the percentages (all right fine, I’ll do it for you). OSU fans believe this team will win 8.9 games this season.
Let’s take a look at how our expectation levels have stacked up to reality in seasons past:
Please note that the ‘actual’ figures above do not include bowl wins because the predictions are all based on the 12-game regular season schedule. You would think that a group of fans would have unrealistic expectations for their team, particularly if they are asked a couple weeks before the season when hopes are always high. That may be true in general, but OSU fans have actually tended to underestimate our team over the past four season by an average of 1.2 games (10-win season, here we come).
This was most evident the last time we lost a quarterback to the NFL. Weeden was able to come in and surprise everyone, including our own fans. This time around we lost two first-round picks and our fans expect a full game better than we did going into the 2010 season. Is it too much to ask out of a true freshman?
Here are the games in order of easiest to most difficult:
Last year we had seven games on the schedule at 88% or higher. This year: only four.
Here are the common opponents from last year and the chances to win each game. Obviously there is a change in venue for most opponents so you have to factor that in:
Using Excel and your expectations for each game, I simulated the season 10,000 times. Here are the results:
Here are the results in order of likelihood. I think this most clearly shows that OSU fans generally expect between 8 and 10 wins this year. A season with 8, 9, or 10 wins accounted for 72% of the results in my simulation:
Okay, let’s compare our expectations to prior years one more time. Below, you can see how confidence in our teams has fluctuated over the last 5 years. The chart shows the % chance we had of winning the number of games listed at the bottom of the chart for every season since 2008:
Expectations are clearly higher than they were in 2008 and 2010, but lower than 2009 or 2011. The bar has been raised at OSU, but it seems like fans will tolerate an 8 or 9 win season (at least for now).
Chances of going undefeated: 1 in 56 (last year it was 1 in 21).
If I could pick one game for OSU to win this year, it would be...
The top answer to this question will likely always be OU. Let’s take a look at how this has changed over the years. We really wanted to beat OU last year. This year it has dropped back down to “normal” levels.
First, the basics:
Now, an interesting look at how expectations for the season were different for each group listed above.
Not surprisingly, the 3 of you who said you weren’t an OSU fan predicted fewer wins. How about the ladies coming strong with a full ½ game higher expectation level than the fellows.
To me, this was the most interesting demographic result: as a group, fans who watched their first game in the 1990s were the most pessimistic about the season. I can understand why...the Pokes were 41-69-2 in the that awful decade for OSU football. But do your early experiences as a fan color permanently influence your expectation level for your team? It’s an interesting question.
By the way, while I was thinking about the question I posed above, I watched a Pat Jones Show video from the hideous 1991 season (0-10-1). It was a 49-15 home loss to Nebraska. Here’s an excerpt from the opening segment.
Jerry Park (host): “Coach, I really believe this was the best 60 minutes of offensive football that Oklahoma State has played this year but you told me maybe the defense was outstanding.”
Pat Jones: “Well, I won’t say outstanding...”
I remember watching these shows with my dad. Young people, this is what it was like to be an OSU football fan in the 90s. Here’s the link if you want to see it, or you can just punch yourself in the face: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouDH_dzJPyU
OSU is ranked #19 in the preseason coaches poll. Where will OSU finish in the polls?
Offensive and Defensive Improvement:
I expect the offense/defense to be _______ last year's offense/defense:
For the 27% of you that think our offense will be the same as or better than last year’s unit, holy balls. I wish I had your optimism.
I think the results make sense. Most expect a dip in offensive production and continued improvement on the defensive side of the ball.
In the days & weeks leading up to this season, I have been ___________ than last year (reading articles, scanning message boards, talking to friends about the team, etc.)
Interest is down from last year, but still higher than it was when I first asked this question in 2010.
This year I bought ___ season ticket(s) than last year.
Another net addition of tickets among those taking the survey. 114 extra tickets were ordered by those who answered this question.
I would love for OSU to schedule a series with _______.
Favorite Non-OSU Team
My favorite Big 12 team not named OSU is...
How about that? I would have never guessed two teams would finish below OU in this category. We really don’t like you, Tech and Baylor.
Comments (my comments in blue)
Will OSU football play in a national championship game in the next 10 years?
I would rather OSU win a national championship in football/basketball:
OSU fans should wear _______ to games.
I'm likely to attend the following road games:
Comments (my comments in blue)
Ranking the Big 12
The top two are in the same order as last year: OU first, OSU second. Here’s how we’ve done the past two years at predicting the conference finish:
You had a couple new stadiums to rate this year with West Virginia and TCU joining the conference. The number in parenthesis is the number of votes each stadium received...as you can see, only 31 of you said you had been to WVU’s stadium.
Not surprisingly, Boone Pickens Stadium received the highest rating.
A few comments from this question (my comments in blue):
My favorite uniform combination is...
Breaking news: last year’s favorite Black-Black-Black has been unseated by Black-Orange-Black. Personally, I’m partial to this work of art that came in at #3.
Here are the leading vote-getters by category.
Big XII Coaches
Here’s how the rankings for Big 12 coaches came out:
Congratulations Mike: your fans just voted you as the best coach in the Big 12 for the first time (he was in second place last year behind Stoops). Snyder gets his due as the 2nd-best coach in the conference while Stoops drops to #3.
Holgorsen and Patterson make their debuts at 4 and 5. Here’s a look at the historical coach rankings:
Given the rankings you just saw, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Gundy’s approval rating is at an all-time high of 99%. I’m really not sure what he needs to do to win over the 5 of you who said they were unsure. I’m glad you’re not my boss.
Holder lost a little steam this year, basically returning to his levels in the 2010 survey. It might be for a variety of reasons (ticket prices & policies, the life insurance debacle), but certainly some of it is due to the problems in the basketball program.
Speaking of, Travis Ford fell off a cliff. He wasn’t doing really well last year either at 59%, but 16% is abysmal. Losing is the biggest problem by far, but players transferring out and criminal charges against players have certainly not helped his cause. Still, just about half of you put yourself in the undecided camp so he may have time to redeem himself if he can get it turned around (soon).
Here are the detailed numbers on each coach:
OSU basketball will make the NCAA tournament this year.
Pretty high expectations for a team that lost its leading scorer and finished 15-18 last year.
Will Travis Ford coach OSU to a conference championship in the next 5 years?
The best OSU basketball team in recent history is...
Back to football. Your son is a 5-star recruit. Every school in the country wants him to play for them. He asks you to narrow down his list to five schools ASIDE from OSU. You would choose...
My FAVORITE #okstate related Twitter accounts to follow are...(you may pick as many as you want).
This was a fun question. All percentages based on the number of respondents who chose at least one account.
Most popular write-in accounts:
Allow me to do a little editorializing. I can’t argue with any of the accounts that are highly rated. However, I can personally recommend the following accounts that were rated in the 18% - 20% area: @KellyHinesTW, @jjhelsley, @anothyvslater. Great OSU coverage from these accounts. Also, @CarsonC5 covers Oklahoma sports in general, but he’s an OSU guy and is worthy of a follow as well.
OSU Information Source
Rate the following information source for OSU news / opinion:
There were a few write-ins for okstate.com, Triple Play Sports, and David Ubben’s blog on ESPN.com -- I should have included them in the list.
You're playing a round of golf and you may pick three Big 12 coaches to complete your foursome. Who are they?
First things first. Who were the most popular choices, regardless of the group they were in? Here is the percentage of people who chose these coaches:
Gundy is no surprise at #1. Holgorsen is certainly no surprise at #2. I frankly found the bottom of the list more interesting than the top...I mean it would be pretty interesting to play a round with any Big 12 coach, but would the conversation with Tuberville run dry after you made the turn? “So...do you enjoy Lubbock?”
Now for the most popular groups. The first coach listed was chosen to be “in your cart”:
Most popular “in your cart” coach:
Least popular “in your cart” coach: tie, Weis and Patterson -- no votes.
Things that made me laugh
Favorite / Breakout Players
First, your favorite player on the offensive side of the ball:
Randle takes the helm as the most popular offensive player AND becomes only the second player to garner more than ½ of the vote (Kendall Hunter, 2010). Everyone in the top 3 from 2009 to 2011 is on an NFL roster.
Gilbert leads on the defensive side of the ball, but he has the lowest vote percentage among all leaders since I’ve asked this question. Hopefully this speaks to our depth of the defensive side of the ball.
Now, moving on to the breakout category:
We have a pretty good record of picking breakout players around here...let’s hope Lunt keeps our streak alive.
OSU vs. Savannah St. Score Prediction
And finally…OSU fans predict an opening-game score of OSU 55, Savannah St. 10.
A sincere thank you to everyone for taking the time to complete this survey (and bonus points for reading all the way through to the end). I really enjoy getting your input every year. Until next time, see you in Stillwater…GO POKES!
2012 OSU Football Survey | @okc_dave