Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
Lauren Ploch Analyst in African Affairs
January 19, 2012
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Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
Summary
Nigeria, Africa’s largest producer of oil and its largest democracy, is one of the U.S. government’s key strategic partners on the continent. It is Africa’s most populous country, with over 155 million people, roughly half Muslim and half Christian, and its second-largest economy. Diplomatic relations with Nigeria, which is among the top five oil exporters to the United States, are strong, and the country is a major recipient of U.S. foreign assistance. After 16 years of military rule, Nigeria made the transition to civilian governance in 1999, and emerged as a powerful actor in African politics. Nigeria’s government has mediated disputes in several African countries, and the country ranks fourth among troop contributors to U.N. peacekeeping missions.
Nigeria faces serious social and economic challenges, however, that some analysts contend threaten the stability of both the state and the region, and which have the potential to affect global oil markets. The country has faced intermittent political turmoil and economic crises since independence. Political life has been scarred by conflict along ethnic, religious, and geographic lines, and misrule has undermined the authority and legitimacy of the state. Nigeria’s annual oil and natural gas revenues are estimated at over $60 billion, but its human development indicators are among the world’s lowest, and a majority of the population suffers from extreme poverty. The government relies on the oil sector for over 85% of revenues. By some estimates, Nigeria could rank among the world’s top five exporters of oil within a few years, but social unrest, criminality, and corruption in the country’s oil-producing Niger Delta region have hindered production as well as development.
Inter-communal conflicts in parts of the country are common. Resentment between the northern and southern regions, and among communities in central Nigeria, has led periodically to considerable unrest. Thousands have been killed in periodic ethno-religious clashes in the past decade. The attempted terror attack on an American airliner by a Nigerian in December 2009 and the resurgence of a militant Islamist group, Boko Haram, have also heightened concerns regarding the possible radicalization of Nigerian Muslims. While Boko Haram has remained primarily focused on a domestic agenda, there are reports that some of its members may be expanding ties with more developed violent Islamist groups on the continent.
Nigeria’s most recent elections, held in April 2011, were viewed by many as a critical test of the government’s commitment to democracy. The State Department had deemed the previous elections to be deeply flawed, and some observers contended that Nigeria had not held a free and fair general election since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Election observer groups characterized the 2011 elections as a significant improvement over previous polls, although not without problems. Post-election violence across the north highlighted lingering communal tensions, grievances, and mistrust. President Goodluck Jonathan, who was re-elected, faces mounting, and at times competing, internal and external pressure to implement reforms deemed critical to addressing corruption and other development and security challenges.
The Obama Administration has been supportive of Nigeria’s recent reform initiatives, including anti-corruption efforts, economic and electoral reforms, energy sector privatization, and programs to promote peace and development in the Niger Delta. In 2010, the Administration established the U.S.-Nigeria Binational Commission, a strategic dialogue to address issues of mutual concern. Congress regularly monitors Nigerian political developments and has expressed concerns with corruption and human rights abuses. Congress provides oversight for over $600 million in U.S. foreign assistance programs in Nigeria—one of the largest U.S. assistance packages in Africa.
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Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
Contents Overview.......................................................................................................................................... 1 Political Context .............................................................................................................................. 2 Previous Elections ..................................................................................................................... 2 The 2011 Elections: Opportunities and Challenges................................................................... 3 Violence Surrounding and Following the 2011 Elections ................................................... 7 Development Challenges and Reform Initiatives ............................................................................ 8 Reforms to the Petroleum and Energy Sectors .......................................................................... 9 Financial Sector Reforms ........................................................................................................ 10 Efforts to Combat Corruption.................................................................................................. 11 Social Issues and Security Concerns ............................................................................................. 13 Islamic Sharia Law.................................................................................................................. 13 Sectarian Violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt ........................................................................... 13 Boko Haram and Militant Islam in Nigeria ............................................................................. 14 Conflict in the Niger Delta ...................................................................................................... 16 Background of the Struggle............................................................................................... 16 Criminality and Violence................................................................................................... 16 Amnesty Offer for Delta Militants .................................................................................... 18 Efforts to Address Environmental and Development Challenges ..................................... 18 Effects on the Oil Industry and the World Market ............................................................ 20 Abuses by Security Forces ...................................................................................................... 20 HIV/AIDS, Education, and Population Growth ...................................................................... 20 International Relations................................................................................................................... 21 Issues for Congress ........................................................................................................................ 21 Administration Policy on Nigeria............................................................................................ 21 U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Maritime Security Issues............................................................. 22 Nigeria’s Role in Regional Stability and Counterterrorism Efforts .................................. 23 U.S. Assistance to Nigeria................................................................................................. 23 Recent Congressional Action ............................................................................................ 25
Figures Figure 1. Results of the 2011 Presidential Election ......................................................................... 6 Figure 2. Map of Nigeria ............................................................................................................... 27
Tables Table 1. State Department and USAID Assistance to Nigeria....................................................... 24
Contacts Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 28
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Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
Overview
Nigeria is considered a key power on the African continent, not only because of its size but also because of its political and economic role in the region. One in five people in Sub-Saharan Africa call Nigeria home. Nigeria’s economy is Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest, and it is one of the world’s major sources of high-quality sweet crude oil and natural gas. Nigerian leaders have mediated conflicts throughout Africa, and Nigerian troops have played a critical role in peace and stability operations on the continent. The country ranks fourth among troop contributors to United Nations peacekeeping missions. Nigeria, roughly twice the size of California, is also home to the world’s second-largest HIV/AIDS-infected population and has Africa’s highest tuberculosis burden. Few countries in Africa have the capacity to make a more decisive impact on the region.
Despite its oil wealth, Nigeria remains highly underdeveloped. Poor governance has limited infrastructure development and social service delivery, hindering economic growth and leaving much of the country mired in poverty.
The country is composed of over 250 ethnic groups, of which 10 account for nearly 80% of the total population. The northern Hausa and Fulani, the southwestern Yoruba, and the southeastern Ibo have traditionally been the most politically active and dominant. Almost half the population, some 75 million people who primarily reside in the northern half of the country, are Muslim. Southern Nigeria is predominantly Christian.
Ethnic and religious strife have been common in Nigeria. Divisions among ethnic groups, between north and south, and between Christians and Muslims often stem from perceived differences in access to land and socioeconomic development, and are sometimes fueled by political elites. More than 15,000 Nigerians are believed to have been have been killed in local clashes sparked by these tensions in the last decade, and millions have been periodically displaced. An increasingly active militant Islamist group, Boko Haram, has contributed to deteriorating security conditions in the northeast. Recent attacks attributed to the group against Christian targets have the potential to inflame sectarian tensions across the country. Its purported ties with regional terrorist groups are also of concern. In the southern Niger Delta, simmering conflict and criminality have been fueled by regional grievances related to oil production in the area, although the government has had some recent success negotiating with local militant groups.
Congressional Research Service 1 Nigeria at a Glance
Population: 155 million
Pop. Growth Rate: 1.935%
Independence: October 1960
Comparative Area: Slightly larger than twice the
size of California
Religions: 50% Muslim, 40% Christian,
10% indigenous beliefs
Languages: English (official), 250 local languages
Literacy: 68%
Infant Mortality: 91.54 deaths/1,000 live births
Life Expectancy: 47.56 years
Prevalence of HIV: 3.1%
Real GDP Growth: 8.4% (2010 estimate)
Nominal GDP Per Capita: $1,191
Unemployment: 4.9%
Exports: $45.4 billion
Imports: $42.1 billion
External Debt: $9.689 billion
Source: CIA World Fact Book, International Monetary Fund
Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
Political Context
Nigeria, which gained its independence from Britain in 1960, is a federal republic composed of 36 states; its political structure is similar to that of the United States. The country has a bicameral legislature with a 109-member Senate and a 360-member House of Representatives. Its president, legislators, and governors are elected on four-year terms. The country was ruled by the military for much of the three decades after independence before making the transition to civilian rule in 1999. Elections held in the decade after the transition were deemed by Nigerians and the international community to be flawed, with each poll progressively worse than the last, according to many domestic and international observers. In the wake of the 2007 elections, which were marred by fraud and political violence, the U.S. State Department expressed its view that the country remained in political transition.1 Human Rights Watch contended at that point that “Nigeria has not held a free and fair general election since the end of military rule.”2 Nevertheless, expectations were high for the most recent round of elections, held in April 2011.
The contest for power between north and south that has broadly defined much of Nigeria’s modern political history can be traced, in part, to administrative divisions instituted during Britain’s colonial administration.3 Northern military leaders dominated Nigerian politics from independence until the transition to democracy just over a decade ago. Since the election of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999,4 there has been a de-facto power sharing arrangement, often referred to as “zoning,” between the country’s geopolitical zones, through which the presidency was expected to rotate among the regions every two terms. President Obasanjo was from the southwest, and with his retirement pending in 2007, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has dominated Nigerian politics for more than a decade, chose a northern governor, Umaru Yar’Adua, as its presidential candidate. The other main presidential contenders in the April 2007 election were also northerners. Upon President Yar’Adua’s death in office in 2010, his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, took office for the remainder of Yar’Adua’s first term, raising questions as to whether the ruling party would chose another northern candidate to run in 2011 or support a run for the office by the sitting president. President Jonathan ultimately secured the party nomination. His subsequent electoral victory leaves the future of the zoning arrangement unclear.
Previous Elections
Nigeria’s third national elections since the return to civilian rule were held in April 2007, amid widespread allegations of electoral mismanagement and fraud. The Nigerian Senate had rejected a bid by Obasanjo supporters in 2006 to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third term. Facing retirement, President Obasanjo backed Umaru Yar’Adua, largely unknown to many Nigerians, as the ruling party’s presidential candidate.5 Yar’Adua’s running mate, Goodluck
1 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 2008. 2 Human Rights Watch (HRW), Election or ‘Selection’? Human Rights Abuses and Threats to Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria, April 2007, and “Nigeria: Presidential Election Marred by Fraud, Violence,” April 24, 2007. 3 Britain administered the north and south separately from the late 19th century until 1947, when it introduced a federal system that divided the country into three regions: Northern, Eastern, and Western. 4 Obasanjo, a former military head of state from 1976-1979, won 62.8% of the votes in 1999; his challenger received 37.2%. In 2003, Obasanjo won 62% of the votes, while his nearest rival, General Muhammadu Buhari, won 32%. 5 Yar’Adua, a former chemistry professor, was elected governor of Katsina in 1999. His better-known older brother, the (continued...)
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Jonathan, had served as governor of Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta. Yar’Adua was declared the winner with over 70% of the votes cast. The two largest opposition parties, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Action Congress (AC), rejected the poll results.
The ruling PDP won the majority of the state and federal elections. Opposition gubernatorial candidates won in seven states, including the two most populous states, Lagos and Kano. Many election results were challenged in the courts, based on allegations of fraud, threats of violence, or the inability of voters to cast their ballots. Ultimately, the results of almost a third of the gubernatorial races were annulled, although many of the candidates who won in the first round won again when elections were rerun. A tribunal hearing the challenges to President Yar’Adua’s win reached its verdict in February 2008, finding insufficient evidence to overturn his election. Nigeria’s Supreme Court upheld that verdict in late 2008.
Domestic and international observer groups were highly critical of the 2007 elections.6 According to the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) delegation, “in many places, and in a number of ways, the electoral process failed the Nigerian people. The cumulative effect ... substantially compromised the integrity of the electoral process.”7 The International Republican Institute (IRI) called the elections “below acceptable standards,” noting that the resolution of election disputes would be “critical” to restoring the credibility of the democratic process.8 President Obasanjo acknowledged some electoral irregularities, notably “logistical failures,” violence, and ballot box theft, but declared that “the magnitude does not make the results null and void.”9 World oil prices rose the week after the election amid concerns surrounding the disputed polls,10 but opposition calls for mass protests went largely unheeded.
The 2011 Elections: Opportunities and Challenges
Conceding that the 2007 elections were flawed, President Yar’Adua appointed a panel of government officials, former judges, and civil society representatives to recommend changes to the country’s electoral institutions. The panel issued its findings in December 2008, but the government was slow to commence reforms until mid-2010, when the parliament approved the first of several amendments to the electoral laws. Among the most significant of the reforms were those designed to increase independence and fiscal autonomy of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), whose credibility had been badly damaged by the 2003 and 2007 elections.11 President Jonathan won praise for replacing the sitting INEC chairman with a
(...continued) late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, served as Vice President under Obasanjo in the first military regime to transfer power to civilian rule, and he was reported to be one of Nigeria’s wealthiest and most powerful men. Shehu died in prison in 1997 after having been sentenced by a military tribunal for treason after calling for dictator Sani Abacha to reestablish civilian rule. Yar’Adua’s father was a prominent minster in the first government after independence. 6 “Nigeria: Elections Fraudulent; EU, Others,” Daily Trust (Abuja), April 24, 2007. 7 The National Democratic Institute (NDI), “Statement of the National Democratic Institute International Election Observer Delegation to Nigeria’s April 21 Presidential and National Assembly Elections,” April 23, 2007. 8 The International Republican Institute (IRI), “Nigeria’s Elections Below Acceptable Standards: Preliminary Findings of IRI’s International Election Observation Mission,” April 22, 2007. 9 “Obasanjo Appeals to Nigerians Over Election Results,” Radio Nigeria-Abuja, April 23, 2007, and “Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo Says Elections Flawed, But Not Fatally,” Associated Press, April 25, 2007. 10 “Landslide Win for Yar’Adua is ‘Flawed,’” Financial Times, April 23, 2007. 11 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding a Political Crisis,” Africa Report No. 123, March (continued...)
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Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
respected academic and civil society activist, Professor Attahiru Jega. Despite lingering concerns about the independence of some state-level electoral officials,12 Nigerians were optimistic that the 2011 polls would be more credible than the last, according to a survey conducted in late 2010.13
Turnout was high for the voter registration exercise, launched in January 2011 to compile a more credible register. INEC reported over 870,000 cases of multiple registration, raising concerns about “widespread but not yet systemic fraud.”14 The exercise nevertheless appeared to increase voter confidence and many observers generally deemed the register an improvement over previous efforts, although not without problems.
A delayed rerun in January 2011 of one of the flawed 2007 gubernatorial elections was viewed as another test for INEC’s new management. Observer reports suggest that, while rigging and voter intimidation occurred, the poll was an improvement in a state heavily controlled by the PDP. By one account, the rerun “demonstrated both the potential for INEC to administer improved elections with the support of communities and the risk that political actors can still overwhelm reforms with systematic fraud.”15 As April approached, analysts argued that Jega’s INEC had demonstrated the will, if not necessarily the capacity, to overcome problems in the 2011 polls.
Observers noted positive developments prior to the elections, but also raised concerns about electoral preparedness and other areas deemed problematic in previous polls, including ballot secrecy, intimidation, and transparency in the counting of ballots and tabulation of results.16 Previous instances of electoral fraud included the falsification of voter information, bribery, theft, incitement, and intimidation. Some civil society groups suggested that these practices were likely to occur in the 2011 elections, but that there might be a shift “from blatant fraud with state acquiescence to a pattern of suppressing opposition voting areas while inflating strongholds.”17 The International Crisis Group declared the party primaries to be “as manipulated as ever,” resulting in court challenges to the parties’ candidate lists.18 Last minute court rulings related to the lists required ballots to be reprinted and caused delays in the delivery of voting materials.
As mentioned above, there has been an unwritten agreement that the presidency should rotate among the country’s regions, and there was considerable debate on whether Jonathan’s decision to vie for the presidency would lead the ruling party to split. Prior to the party primaries, many northerners argued that since Yar’Adua, a northerner, had only served one term, a candidate from their region should hold the office for another term, given that Obasanjo, a southerner, had two terms in office. Some reports suggest that a lack of consensus among the PDP elite on the zoning
(...continued) 28, 2007, p. 14. 12 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Africa Briefing No.79, February 24, 2011; Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria, U.S. Institute for Peace, December 2010. 13 A poll conducted by IRI in late 2010 indicated that over 60% of Nigerians had confidence in the new electoral commission, and that 74% of Nigerians thought the 2011 polls would be more credible that the last. 14 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Ibid. 15 Stakeholder Democracy Network, The Delta Governorship Rerun: Signposts and Storm Warnings for the 2011 Elections, February 24, 2011. 16 See, e.g., IRI, “Statement of IRI’s Pre-Election Assessment Mission,” March 3, 2011; NDI, “Nigeria Election Watch,” Issue 3, March 15, 2011. 17 Stakeholder Democracy Network, The Delta Governorship Rerun, Ibid. 18 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Ibid; NDI, “Nigeria Election Watch,” Issue 3, Ibid.
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issue contributed to the apparent reluctance by Yar’Adua’s cabinet to formally transfer power to Jonathan in early 2010 (see below). Jonathan ultimately won the support of key PDP leaders, including a majority of the northern governors, for his candidacy, winning the primary overwhelmingly with over 2,700 votes against roughly 800 for his northern rival, Atiku Abubakar.
President Jonathan, along with his running mate, Vice President Namadi Sambo (a northerner), was among almost 20 candidates contesting the presidency, including former military leader Muhammadu Buhari,19 representing the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); former head of Nigeria’s anti-corruption authority Nuhu Ribadu, representing the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); and a northern state governor, Ibrahim Shekaru, representing the ANPP. These three leading opposition contenders all hailed from the north and chose running mates from the south.
With over 73 million registered voters, almost 120,000 polling stations, and more than 50 political parties, the challenges facing INEC were daunting. The 2011 elections were scheduled to be held on three successive Saturdays in April; however, logistical delays in the delivery of materials to polling stations across the country resulted in all three elections being delayed by a week.20 For some, the delay reinforced concerns regarding the polls’ credibility. Others argued that the “trial run” allowed INEC the opportunity to identify and address some deficiencies.
The ruling PDP maintained its dominant position in Nigerian politics in the 2011 elections, retaining the presidency, a majority of the seats in the National Assembly, the gubernatorial posts and state assemblies. The CPC and ACN made some significant regional gains, however. The ACN dominated state elections in the southwest, where the PDP retained a majority in only one of the state assemblies and lost all gubernatorial positions. Nationally, opposition parties now control 13 governors’ posts and hold a majority in 10 state assemblies.21 Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan won 59.6% of the vote, taking a majority in 23 states and gaining enough support nationwide to avoid a run-off.22 Buhari, who followed with 32.3% of the votes, led in one-third of the states, notably in the north. Ribadu came in third with 5.5% of the votes.
19 General Buhari also ran for the presidency in 2003 and 2007. 20 Gubernatorial elections were not held in 10 states 2007 election results were overturned or rerun. 21 Opposition candidates took Ogun, Oyo, and Lagos in the southwest (ACN), Yobe in the north (ANPP), and Imo in the southeast (APGA). ANPP retained control in Borno and Zamfara. The CPC won Nasarawa from the ANPP. Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, and Anambra were already held by the opposition. 22 A candidate must win at least 25% in at least two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory to avoid a runoff. Jonathan gained at least 25% in 31 states. Buhari gained 25% in 18 states.
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Figure 1. Results of the 2011 Presidential Election
Source: BBC, adapted by CRS.
U.S. government comments on the conduct of the 2011 elections were largely positive. Secretary of State Clinton declared, “This historic event marks a dramatic shift from decades of failed elections and a substantial improvement” over the 2007 election, but noted that “while this election was a success for the people of Nigeria, it was far from perfect.”23 Another senior State Department official called the polls “the most successful elections since [Nigeria’s] return to multiparty democracy, ... despite some technical imperfections,” and argued that “this reverses a downward democratic trajectory and provides the country a solid foundation for strengthening its electoral procedures and democratic institutions.”24 When President Obama called to congratulate President Jonathan, he stated that “the success of the elections was a testament to Nigerian voters who ... were determined that these elections mark a new chapter in Nigerian history.”25
23 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Press Release: Election in Nigeria, April 19, 2011. 24 Special Briefing by Assistant Secretary Johnnie Carson, “The Recent Elections in Nigeria,” April 28, 2011. 25 The White House, Statement by President Obama on Elections in Nigeria, May 4, 2011.
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CAMEROON
-ABM Nuhu Hibadu
2.1 million votes t5.5%II
Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress
International observers also generally noted significant improvements in the electoral process in the National Assembly and presidential polls, but most stopped short of calling the elections “free and fair.” The IRI and NDI delegations both termed the 2011 elections a key step forward.26 The African Union called the legislative and presidential elections “credible and creditable and reflect(ing) the will of the Nigerian people.”27 The Commonwealth declared that “previously held notions that Nigeria can only hold flawed elections are now being discarded and this country can now shake off that stigma and redeem its image.”28 The European Union (EU) was also generally positive, but raised concerns with presidential results from some states in the Niger Delta and the southeast, where turnout appeared to be near 100%.29 This echoes the findings of some domestic groups, who reported the largest number of electoral incidents in the “south-south” (i.e., the Niger Delta) and southeast, including intimidation, harassment, and in some cases, violence.30 Under- age voting was cited as a common concern by observers, and most suggested that over-crowding at polling stations and complicated vote collation procedures vulnerable to error or malfeasance remained a problem during the polls. The EU delegation, one of the few groups to observe the state elections, found that they “did not resemble the quality of the process and environment of the elections for President and National Assembly,” and noted increased attempts to influence voters.31 Domestic observer reports suggest harassment increased in the state elections.
Various parties filed legal suits challenging the results of the 2011 elections. Nigeria’s Supreme Court upheld a verdict rejecting the CPC’s challenge to President Jonathan’s win in December 2011. Nigeria’s next elections are scheduled for 2015.
Violence Surrounding and Following the 2011 Elections
Despite generally positive preliminary statements on the conduct of the April 2011 legislative and presidential elections, election-related violence surrounding the polls was higher than in previous years, highlighting lingering communal tensions. Rioting that broke out in the north in protest of President Jonathan’s win reflected grievances that many in that region feel had been left unaddressed by the ruling party.
Violence had accompanied previous elections in Nigeria. Over 150 people were estimated to have been killed in violence related to the 2003 elections, and by some estimates, as many as 350 people were killed in violence related to the 2007 polls.32 Violence prior to the 2011 elections included clashes between party supporters and several assassinations. Poll-related security concerns were further heightened by a spate of bombings during political rallies, predominantly in Bayelsa state in the Delta. There were at least six bombings in April in the northeast state of Borno, where Boko Haram, a local militant Islamist group, has been most active. Boko Haram claimed responsibility in January 2011 for the assassination of the state’s leading gubernatorial candidate and several of his supporters. On the eve of the legislative elections, a bombing at the
26 IRI, “Nigerian Election Major Step Forward,” April 18, 2011; NDI, “Statement of the National Democratic Institute’s International Election Observer Mission to Nigeria’s April 16 Presidential Election,” April 18, 2011. 27 Preliminary Statement of the AU Observer Mission on the 2011 Presidential Election in Nigeria, April 16, 2011. 28 Interim Statement by the Chairman of the Commonwealth Observer Group, April 18, 2011. 29 Preliminary Statement of the European Union Election Observation Mission, April 18, 2011. 30 Project 2011 Swift Count (http://www.pscnigeria.org) and the Transition Monitoring Group (http://www.tmgelection2011.org). 31 EU Election Observation Mission, Press Release: EU EOM on the Elections of 26 and 28 April, April 29, 2011. 32 HRW, “Nigeria: Pass Bill to Prosecute Electoral Abuses,” March 13, 2011.
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