INFO MEMO FOR THE USAID ADMINISTRATOR AND DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR Date: March 4, 2025
To: XXX
From: Nicholas Enrich, Acting Assistant Administrator for Global Health
CC: Assistant to the Administrator Mark Lloyd
Assistant to the Administrator Tim Meisburger
Assistant to the Administrator Ken Jackson
Acting Chief of Staff Joel Borkert
Subject: Risks to U.S. National Security and Public Health: Consequences of Pausing Global Health Funding for Lifesaving Humanitarian Assistance
Key Takeaway: The temporary pause on foreign aid and delays in approving lifesaving humanitarian assistance (LHA) for global health will lead to increased death and disability, accelerate global disease spread, contribute to destabilizing fragile regions, and heightened security risks—directly endangering American national security, economic stability, and public health. If the pause leads to permanent contract terminations, the $7.7B in resources appropriated by Congress are no longer be used to support these lifesaving global health programs, which could potentially result in wasted resources. The impacts on mortality and morbidity are summarized in the tables below. While the Foreign Assistance Review is set to take place in the coming weeks, it is important to recognize that a mechanism-by-mechanism approach may overlook the broader impact of these programs across global health program areas. This includes missed opportunities to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness within LHA program areas.
Illustrative quantifiable impacts of halting global health programing on the mortality and morbidity of lives can be summarized as follows (see full table here):
Program Area | Global Case Increase over one year if Programs are permanently halted |
Malaria | An additional 12.5-17.9 million cases and an additional |
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Deleted: being
71,000-166,000 deaths (39.1% increase) annually | |
MDR-TB | 28-32% Increase in estimated incidence globally |
TB | 28-32% increase in estimated incidence globally |
EID (Ebola, Marburg, etc.) | Worst Case Scenario: More than 28,000 cases |
Polio | Additional 200,000 paralytic polio cases/year (and hundreds of millions of infections overall), over next 10 years, if global polio eradication stops |
Estimated number of people impacted annually in the absence of global health LHA (see full table here):
Life-saving health services in 48 countries with most maternal, newborn, and child deaths | Estimated Number of People Affected this Year Through the Halt in Services |
Maternal health: pregnant women not reached through life saving services | 16,800,000 |
Newborn health: critical postnatal care to newborns within two days of childbirth | 11,262,264 |
Child health: Treatment only for pneumonia and diarrhea (among the top causes of preventable deaths in children under 5) | 14,782,398 |
Nutrition | 1 million children not treated annually for severe acute malnutrition |
Policy Recommendation: Resume all mechanisms with submitted life-saving waivers to avert crisis-level expenditures, prevent mortality and morbidity, and protect national security. Upholding these programs is not only a legal and humanitarian obligation but also a critical strategic investment to make America safer, more secure, and more prosperous.
Background
On January 20, 2025, the President issued an executive order mandating a 90-day pause on most foreign assistance activities to allow for a comprehensive review. Eight days later, on January 28, Secretary of State Rubio issued a temporary waiver to this pause, as outlined in the President’s Executive Order on Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid (EO),
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allowing lifesaving humanitarian assistance (LHA) activities to proceed. While this temporary pause is intended to assess and realign foreign aid priorities, delaying approvals for LHA programs presents serious risks to national security, public health, and decades of progress in global health. Americans consider it a moral strength to not only protect their fellow citizens but to also ensure U.S. medical innovations are made available to those less fortunate, particularly those in extreme poverty. The suspension of essential LHA during this review period is disrupting a range of critical health services, including maternal and child health and nutrition programs, malaria and tuberculosis treatment, and polio eradication efforts. Additionally, the canceling of critical contracts, prevents the ability to respond to the most pressing and urgent life-threatening challenges in the near-term.
As a result of the pause and programming delays, millions of individuals now face heightened risks of preventable diseases such as malaria, HIV/AIDS, TB, and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Furthermore, setbacks in maternal and child health and nutrition initiatives threaten overall health outcomes in affected regions. Beyond the immediate consequences, these disruptions weaken critical disease surveillance and health supply chain systems, increasing the likelihood of unchecked outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, Ebola, and mpox—threats that can spread globally and endanger American citizens.
Historical data demonstrate that reductions in funding for global health initiatives and lifesaving health programming correlate with surges in disease incidence, reinforcing the urgency of sustained support for these programs to protect both global stability and domestic security. A failure to contain infectious diseases at their source heightens the risk of transmission to the United States, posing a direct threat to public health and economic stability. The consequences extend beyond human health, impacting American businesses and families by increasing healthcare costs, disrupting international trade, and straining domestic resources.
This memorandum outlines the critical consequences of withholding global health funding for LHA activities, emphasizing how this decision undermines the congressionally mandated efforts of USAID and jeopardizes American security by allowing preventable diseases to spread unchecked. USAID’s Congressional legislative mandate per foreign assistance law and current funding status can be found in the Annex 1 of this memorandum.
Impact of Terminating Lifesaving Humanitarian Aid (LHA) Awards in Global Health
While we are currently in a 90-day review period regarding lifesaving humanitarian aid (LHA) awards, this section outlines the potential consequences should all LHA activities be permanently suspended. Such a suspension is expected to deteriorate public health outcomes
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both domestically and globally, burden the U.S. economy and healthcare system, and escalate national security risks, including increased vulnerability to biothreats
Deterioration of American Public Health and Increased Global Mortality Key Impact 1: Resurgence of preventable diseases: Domestic and global implications.
● Halted interventions and treatments fuel the rise of preventable diseases: The suspension of critical global health funding for lifesaving humanitarian assistance threatens not just global health but also the well-being of American communities. Without essential services—such as antiretroviral treatments, malaria prevention, routine immunization, and tuberculosis control—preventable diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB/MDR-TB, measles, diphtheria, pertussis and others will surge, undoing years of progress. As outbreaks spread unchecked, the consequences will extend beyond borders, increasing the risk of infections reaching the U.S., straining healthcare systems, and endangering American lives.
○ A systematic review of malaria resurgence events in 61 countries between the 1930s and 2000s, indicated 91% were due to a weakening of malaria control programs of which resource constraints contributed to over half of these1. Following the end of the 14-year Global Malaria Eradication Program in 1969, there was a global resurgence of the disease during the 1970s and 1980s2.
● Resurgence of MDR-TB: A growing American public health threat: Tuberculosis programs worldwide keep drug-resistant TB in check. If these efforts collapse, the U.S. will see more cases of hard-to-treat TB arriving at its doorstep. Treating one patient with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in the U.S. costs over $154,000 (and an average $494,000 for an extensively drug-resistant TB case)3. Without timely and effective treatment, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases will surge, posing a direct threat to both American and global public health. As international travel and migration increase, uncontrolled MDR-TB outbreaks abroad heighten the risk of transmission to the U.S., where containment efforts would require significant federal and state funding. The escalating burden of MDR-TB will not only drive up healthcare costs but also endanger frontline workers, making prevention and early intervention an urgent national priority.
● Prevention Is More Cost-Effective Than Emergency Funding of Programs: The 2014–16 Ebola outbreak cost the U.S. approximately $4.3 billion in response efforts, highlighting
1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/library/malaria-resurgence systematic-review-and-assessment-its-causes 2 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525190/ 3https://www.csis.org/analysis/protecting-united-states-health-security-risk-global
tuberculosis#:~:text=Treatment%20of%20a%20typical%20patient,of%20XDR%2DTB%20costs%20$494%2C000.4
that reactive spending far exceeds proactive prevention costs. The COVID-19 pandemic further underscored how unplanned emergency spending can lead to trillions in economic losses. USAID-funded programs have historically curbed disease spread, saving lives and billions in economic costs. For example, immunization is among the most cost effective interventions in public health, saving an estimated 2-3 million deaths each year; for every dollar invested in immunization, up to $52 ROI is generated from saved costs of treating illnesses4. Sustaining these programs is crucial to avoiding costly, reactive crisis management. There is a $94 return in economic growth for every $1 spent on maternal and child health-specific foreign aid due to deaths prevented and improvements in the health status of populations in poor countries.
● Reduced disease surveillance and undetected outbreaks: Cuts in humanitarian assistance compromise surveillance systems essential for early detection of emerging infectious diseases. The diminished capacity to monitor and respond swiftly enables the unchecked spread of deadly outbreaks such as avian influenza and mpox. This lack of surveillance risks turning localized outbreaks into widespread public health emergencies, further endangering both local populations and global health security.
Key Impact 2: Humanitarian and regional instability fueled by worsening health crises.
● Increased instability in fragile states through disease outbreaks: Weak governance and poor infrastructure leave fragile states highly vulnerable to disease outbreaks, which can quickly escalate crises. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), ongoing violence and an aid cutoff have led to the collapse of health services, worsening malnutrition and
cholera and measles outbreaks. Over 400 mpox patients were left stranded after fleeing overwhelmed clinics, while more than one million displaced people around Goma—and another 150,000 near Bukavu—face critical shortages of shelter, clean water, and medical care. In Burkina Faso, where 100% of the 23 million total population is at risk for malaria, “30 percent of health care facilities were either partially or fully non-functional due to frequent attacks on facilities and equipment, medical personnel, and medication shortages, adversely affecting 4 million people5.” Additionally, in FY2024 over 34 million seasonal malaria chemoprevention doses were procured with PMI/USAID funds to protect children under five in three Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger); these vulnerable children are now at greater risk with the high transmission malaria season rapidly approaching. In such conditions, the risk of a new pandemic looms large. From the Sahel to South Asia, cutting off health aid in fragile states threatens to turn crises into full-scale humanitarian disasters.
4 https://immunizationevidence.org/immunization_terms/return-on-investment/ 5 https://reliefweb.int/report/burkina-faso/burkina-faso-complex-emergency-fact-sheet-1-fiscal-year-fy-20245
● Amplification of migration pressures and regional destabilization: Failing public health systems fuel migration crises, forcing people to flee when they can no longer access food, medicine, or basic security. Collapsing healthcare infrastructure not only displaces populations but also spreads disease across borders. This was evident in Venezuela in the late 2010s, where a breakdown of the health system—alongside economic collapse—led to resurgences of measles, diphtheria, and malaria, driving millions to flee and triggering a regional refugee crisis. The spread of Venezuela’s measles outbreak into neighboring countries underscored the direct link between public health failures and migration. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout intensified migration pressures in Central America, particularly in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, where overwhelmed healthcare systems and food insecurity forced many to seek refuge in the U.S. Similarly, the ongoing conflict and health crises in Haiti—where gang violence has crippled hospitals and cholera has resurged—have led to a surge in migration to the U.S. and neighboring countries. As public health crises worsen, migration pressures will continue to rise, contributing to regional instability and humanitarian challenges. (citations documented)
Key Impact 3: Greater risk of disease spillover to the U.S.
● A halt to global health aid programs increases the risk of dangerous diseases reaching the U.S.: In a globally connected world, outbreaks abroad don’t stay overseas. When public health systems fail to contain infectious diseases, the chances of U.S. exposure rise—whether through travel, military personnel, or migration. Measles outbreaks in the U.S. in the past decade, for example, have often been traced to imported cases, as the disease was eliminated domestically. In 2023, the U.S. saw its first locally acquired malaria cases in 20 years, likely due to travelers introducing the parasite into mosquito prone states like Florida and Texas6. 76% of US recorded TB cases annually are among foreign born individuals.
● Uncontrolled epidemics abroad could trigger serious outbreaks in America: Mathematical models illustrate this risk. For example, if global TB rates and drug resistance reached U.S. levels due to failed international control efforts, the consequences would be severe—over 33,000 TB deaths annually and treatment costs exceeding $11 billion7.
Economic and Healthcare System Strain
Key Point 1: Costs of responding to outbreaks far exceed prevention investments.
6 beatmalaria.org
7 cgdev.org
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● Outbreak response costs dwarf prevention investments: Historical data underscores that reactive spending on disease outbreaks significantly exceeds the costs of proactive prevention. For example, the U.S. response to the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak reached approximately $4.3 billion8, covering direct healthcare expenditures and extensive economic disruptions from emergency measures and loss of productivity. If the U.S. elects not to provide aid for future outbreaks abroad, larger and less-contained epidemics may develop, ultimately necessitating even more costly domestic responses. This approach risks disrupting global trade, supply chains, and market stability, ultimately imposing far greater economic burdens on the U.S. than if robust prevention and early intervention measures had been maintained.
● Unchecked pandemics trigger profound economic fallout: The COVID-19 crisis vividly illustrated how insufficient preventive measures can precipitate widespread economic damage. Beyond overwhelming healthcare systems, the pandemic disrupted global supply chains, destabilized labor markets, and led to substantial declines in economic output. These impacts highlight the critical need for robust global health investments as a means of averting far greater future costs.
Key Point 2: Strain on U.S. healthcare infrastructure due to imported infectious disease cases.
● Collapse of disease surveillance leads to more importations: Global health programs fund disease surveillance networks that act as an early warning system for outbreaks. If these networks falter, the U.S. will frequently be flying blind until diseases show up at its own border. That scenario is a recipe for more imported outbreaks on U.S. soil. For instance, the quick detection and containment of Ebola in West Africa is what kept the 2014 outbreak from becoming a larger U.S. crisis. Even so, the few Ebola cases that did reach America illustrated the heavy burden of managing dangerous contagions: a single Ebola patient in New York in 2014 cost the city health department $4.3 million in response measures (contact tracing, specialized treatment, etc.), and no secondary cases occurred9. If global surveillance and response capacity erode, the U.S. could face multiple such cases or simultaneous threats (e.g. Ebola, drug-resistant malaria, novel coronaviruses). American hospitals and the public health system would be stretched by needs like isolation units, specialized diagnostics, and round-the-clock epidemiological investigations.
● Maternal Health Emergencies and Medical Supply Shocks: USAID programs have been pivotal in supporting maternal and neonatal care in low-income countries – from training midwives to supplying essential medicines (like oxytocin for hemorrhage or
8 yalejournal.org
9 cdc.gov
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magnesium sulfate for eclampsia). A permanent aid halt means many of these supply chains and services will collapse10. The ripple effects can reach the U.S. in unexpected ways. For example, global supply disruptions during COVID-19 led to shortages of medical products in America; similarly, a breakdown in the international supply of maternal health commodities could affect availability of critical drugs or equipment domestically. Moreover, when maternal health crises escalate abroad, there can be secondary impacts such as increased medical evacuation cases, migration of high-risk patients, or calls on U.S. humanitarian responders, all of which ultimately put pressure on U.S. hospitals.
Key Point 3: Global economic repercussions impacting U.S. trade and markets.
● Reduced productivity in key trade regions due to heightened disease burdens: Diseases like malaria, HIV, and TB primarily strike working-age adults or their children, impairing productivity and economic output in Africa, Asia, and beyond. For example, malaria costs Africa an estimated $12 billion per year in lost GDP from worker
absenteeism, lower productivity, and healthcare expenses11. Every $1 invested in malaria control returns $19 in economic growth.12 Unchecked high rates of maternal and childhood morbidity or mortality can further exacerbate impacts on productivity. Undernutrition can reduce a nation’s GDP by as much as 16.5 percent13, as malnourished children perform worse in school and experience productivity losses as adults. Maternal and child health and nutrition foreign assistance makes America stronger by creating greater economic and political stability through improved family health, which increases the likelihood that children will attend school and grow into healthy, productive adults, thereby reducing conflicts, poverty, and radicalization of youth. Instability abroad risks affecting Americans - be it on our soil or by destabilizing markets from afar.14,15 Lower
10 reuters.com
11 archive.cdc.gov 12 https://endmalaria2040.org/assets/Aspiration-to-Action-Dashboard.pdf 13 Union, A. (2014). The cost of hunger in Africa: Social and economic impact of child undernutrition in Egypt, Ethiopia, Swaziland and Uganda background paper. Abuja, Nigeria. https://archive.uneca.org/sites/default/files/uploaded documents/CoM/com2014/com2014-the_cost_of_hunger-english.pdf 14 Each additional year of schooling can boost a girl’s earnings as an adult by up to 20 per cent -
https://www.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/Progress-on-the-sustainable-development-goals-the-gender-snapshot 2022-en_0.pdf
More girls in school = greater GDP: If 10 percent more adolescent girls attend school, a country’s GDP increases by an average of 3 percent.
More school for girls = greater earnings: An extra year of secondary school for girls can increase their future earnings by 10- 20%.
Education = more lives saved: A child whose mother can read is 50 percent more likely to live past age five. 15 “First, a 10 per cent increase in health expenditures boosts annual average real GDP per capita by 0.24 per cent. This is an economically meaningful result, given the average annual growth rate in the sample period of 2 per cent. Second, this paper also confirms the long-held view that health matters for economic growth. There is a statistically significant and economically
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productivity in these regions weakens their economic output and trade capacity, thereby diminishing their ability to import U.S. goods and services. This contraction in trade not only limits market opportunities for U.S. businesses but also undermines the economic resilience of global supply networks that support U.S. markets.
● Reduced partnerships with American farmers: Through USAID’s humanitarian assistance and nutrition programs, the U.S. engages American farmers and manufacturers in the delivery of commodities as part of food aid for food security and treatment of acute malnutrition in children16. Although USAID food aid programs account for less than 1% of current U.S. agricultural exports, they have historically provided American farmers and manufacturers with a stable $2 billion market17, supporting an estimated 15,000–20,000 jobs. Permanently suspending these programs would likely reduce commodity prices, lower farm incomes, and trigger layoffs across food processing, manufacturing, and transportation sectors—ultimately weakening the global competitiveness of U.S. agriculture.
● Global supply chain disruptions: A strong global health system is essential for maintaining stable global trade. The COVID-19 pandemic vividly illustrated how health crises can cripple supply chains—factory shutdowns, travel restrictions, and worker illnesses in one region can quickly trigger shortages and price spikes worldwide. If U.S.- funded health programs that prevent outbreaks and strengthen health systems are halted, developing regions will face greater instability, increasing the risk of production disruptions. Key sectors of the U.S. economy remain vulnerable to such shocks. For example, a significant portion of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies—including generic drugs and personal protective equipment (PPE)—are manufactured in India, China, and other global hubs. A major epidemic in these regions could halt production, causing shortages that directly impact U.S. hospitals and pharmacies. Likewise, global health emergencies threaten agriculture and food supply chains; pandemic lockdowns in 2020 disrupted food processing and shipping worldwide, underscoring the far-reaching economic consequences of health crises18.
● Weakened Trade Partners and Global Markets: Over the longer term, the cumulative impact of widespread disease and reduced human capital in low- and middle-income countries will undermine global economic growth. America’s prosperity is deeply intertwined with global markets – U.S. companies invest in and source from these countries, and emerging economies constitute important consumer bases. If those economies are continuously set back by health disasters, the global GDP will be smaller
meaningful negative relationship between economic growth on the one hand and maternal and infant/child mortality on the other hand. There is also a positive and significant impact of adult life expectancy on economic growth.” Source 16 How the United States Benefits from Agriculture and Food Security Investments in Developing Countries 17 Betterworldcampaign.org 18 pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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than it otherwise would be, acting as a brake on U.S. growth as well. Moreover, health driven economic stresses can fuel political instability and conflict, which threaten U.S. interests. Indeed, abrupt surges in unemployment, poverty, food insecurity, and illness can spark unrest or migration waves, destabilizing regions. Such instability often demands U.S. humanitarian, diplomatic, or even military responses, all of which carry significant costs. In contrast, stable and healthy nations make good trade partners and contribute to a stable international system that benefits the U.S. economically. By preventing the collapse of health systems abroad, USAID programs help countries remain stable, keep their economies functioning, and continue trading with the United States.
National Security and Biothreat Vulnerabilities
Key Point 1: Increased risk of bioterrorism and pandemic emergence.
● Diminished surveillance increases vulnerability to undetected pathogen spread: Weakened disease surveillance doesn’t only jeopardize natural outbreak detection – it also creates openings for malicious actors. Global health monitoring systems serve as the “smoke alarm” for unusual disease patterns that could signal a bioterrorism event. If those alarms are switched off or muted due to lack of funding, a deliberate release of a pathogen could spread for weeks under the guise of a normal outbreak. Terrorists or rogue states might exploit surveillance gaps, targeting regions with poor monitoring to launch a biological attack, knowing it would take longer for the world to notice and respond. Indeed, the very technologies to engineer pathogens have become more accessible over time, lowering the bar for would-be bioterrorists (better citation? citation).
● National Security Impacts: Pandemics and biological threats don’t respect borders, and their consequences extend beyond public health – they are national security concerns. An undetected pathogen can undermine military readiness, as disease spreads among troops or across bases before protective measures are in place. Widespread illness can also weaken domestic security forces and first responders, who fall ill in the line of duty. Moreover, adversaries could use a biological event to sow chaos: a sudden epidemic can destabilize economies, foment social unrest, and even be used as cover for disinformation or cyber attacks. The U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence community routinely list pandemic disease among top security threats, alongside bioterrorism, for these reasons. A collapse in global disease surveillance heightens these risks, as threats will be harder to see coming. As a recent analysis by global health experts warned, actions that “undermine work to detect and contain disease outbreaks”
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could quickly “roll back years of progress” and “put lives, the economy, and national security at risk19.”
Quantified Impacts of Discontinued Aid by Disease Area - 2025
Disease Area | Global Case Increase (%) | Projected US Imported Cases | Estimated US Economic Impact ($) | Assumption/Notes/Data Sources |
Malaria | An additional 12.5-17.9 million cases and an additional 71,000-166,000 deaths (39.1% increase) annually | 2000 cases/year | Reducing malaria burden could boost malaria endemic countries’ economies by $142.73 billion and could generate $1.4 billion in US exports to Africa between 2023- 2030; a 10% decrease in malaria incidence was associated with an increase in income per capita of nearly 0.3% | Data Sources: Malaria Atlas Project, Modeling Impact of PMI Funding Freeze Across 2025, February 27. 2025 Oxford Economics Africa cdc/gov/malaria The Economic Burden of Malaria: Revisiting the Evidence. Sarma et al., Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2019 Dec;101(6):1405- 1415. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.19- 0386. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.go v/31628735/ |
MDR-TB | 28-32% Increase in estimated incidence globally | ~80 MDR cases/year | $40,000,000 only direct diagnosis, treatment and program costs (excludes larger societal, ie loss of productivity, costs) | Data Sources: WHO, CDC, CSIS Assumptions: 40% of global TB efforts are donor funded; 76% of US TB cases are Foreign-Born; costs per case are adjusted for inflation (3% average) |
TB | 28-32% increase in estimated incidence | ~7,300 additional TB cases per year | $153,600,000 only direct diagnosis, treatment and | Data Sources: WHO, CDC, CSIS Assumptions: 40% of global TB efforts are donor funded; 76% of US TB cases are Foreign-Born; |
19 cgdev.org
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globally | program costs (excludes larger societal, ie loss of productivity, costs) | costs per case are adjusted for inflation (3% average) | ||
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) | Worst Case Scenario: 775M cases globally | 105M cases in the USA. | Based on the known impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, a HPAI pandemic is likely to cost the US at least $14 trillion. The economic impact of just animal losses from bird flu in 2022 cost the US economy up to $3 billion. | Based on Global COVID case data and average Assumes current outbreak progresses to human-to-human spread pandemic |
EID (Ebola, Marburg, etc.) | Worst Case Scenario: More than 28,000 cases | 15 imported cases | >$2B and 10k jobs tied to exports. This was the cost of the WA Ebola Outbreak to the USA | Assumptions: Based on 2014- 2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic |
mpox | More than 127,000 cases | More than 34,000 cases in the US | Based on no intervention: USD 3,699,033 | Assumptions/Data Sources: Modeled off of mpox clade 2 pandemic |
Immunization | 2-3 million deaths a year 89% increase in incidence in vaccine preventable diseases among children alone (best case scenario) | Every dollar spent on immunization saves America an estimated $54 in social and economic costs. | Data sources: CDC, UNICEF, WHO, USAID annual reports to Congress - Immunization is a best buy: it is one of the most cost-effective ways to support a healthier, safer world for everyone, including Americans. - Immunizing people routinely and when outbreaks strike prevents disease from spreading across borders, including to America. Routine childhood vaccines protect children from highly infectious but preventable diseases like Diphtheria, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), Hepatitis B, Measles, Meningitis, |
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Mumps, Pertussis (whooping cough), Polio, Rubella, and Tetanus. USAID supports countries to immunize against deadly and highly transmissible diseases. | ||||
Polio | Additional 200,000 paralytic polio cases/year (and hundreds of millions of infections overall), over next 10 years, if global polio eradication stops | >1 paralytic case/year over next 10 years, with potential sporadic outbreaks (assuming declining immunization coverage); increasing transmission risks over time | Incurred costs would include disease surveillance, multiple emergency outbreak responses, vaccination catch-up campaign, treatment, long term disability (including for post-polio treatment), lost economic productivity and quality of life due to disability, reduced life expectancy (early mortality). | Data sources: CDC, Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Investment Case 2022-2026 - Assumes reduced immunization coverage, termination of Gavi, UNICEF, WHO, and other funding - Impacts include reduced access to quality, real-time data for action - USAID’s polio support has included surveillance, risk communication and community engagement, direct vaccination (including cross-border), laboratory testing networks, vaccine supply and cold chain support, and national/regional/ global coordination - With declining U.S. vaccination coverage, already millions of vulnerable Americans - Immunity gaps in U.S. put Americans at risk for large outbreaks that can cause paralysis and death (e.g., 1/5 of adults 20-49 years old do not have poliovirus antibodies) - Adults w/paralytic polio are more likely to die from paralysis than children - Polio immunization coverage among U.S. children <2 years old already as low as 37% in some areas - Estimates do not include potential new outbreaks of polio in large countries like India - Up to 1/200 infected people can develop paralysis |
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Estimated number of people impacted annually in the absence of global health LHA 2025
Life-saving health services in 48 countries with most maternal, newborn, and child deaths | Estimated Number of People Affected this Year Through the Halt in Services | Estimated US Economic & Security Impacts | Assumption/Notes/Data Sources |
Maternal health: pregnant women not reached through life saving services | 16,800,000 | Destabilized families and communities; increased migration across borders, including to U.S., due to country destabilization; reduced economic productivity and GDP; weakened trade partners and global economies; takeover of malign foreign actors in countries and regions with high U.S. economic and national security interests; increased danger to Americans at home, and traveling and living abroad; There is a $94 return in economic growth for every $1 spent on maternal and child health-specific foreign aid (including immunization but excluding nutrition interventions in this analysis) due to deaths prevented and | Data Sources/ Assumptions: - 2024 USAID reports to Congress - Total number of live births as a proxy for women who benefitted from live saving services |
Newborn health: critical postnatal care to newborns within two days of childbirth | 11,262,264 | - 2024 USAID reports to Congress - National and subnational population estimates | |
Child health: Treatment only for pneumonia and diarrhea (among the top causes of preventable deaths in children under 5) | 14,782,398 | Data sources: 2024 USAID reports to Congress - Population-based country surveys | |
Nutrition | 1 million children not treated annually for severe acute malnutrition | Data Sources: - 2024 USAID reports to Congress - Cost estimates for treating a child for severe acute malnutrition vary depending on context, but range from $100- 200/per child - The FY24 budget for GHP nutrition was $165 million |
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improvements in the health status of populations in poor countries. |
Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
Any decision to halt or significantly reduce global health funding for lifesaving humanitarian assistance (LHA)—despite approved waivers—and USAID global health programming, despite congressional mandates, would have severe domestic and global consequences. Such an action could lead to a sharp increase in preventable diseases, substantial economic losses, and heightened security risks. The effects would be felt both in the United States and worldwide, as rising disease burdens strain healthcare systems, disrupt economies, and contribute to global instability.
We recommend that the U.S. immediately resume life-saving humanitarian activities to prevent unnecessary mortality and morbidity, avert costly crisis-level expenditures, and safeguard national security. These programs are not only a legal and humanitarian obligation but also a vital strategic investment in America’s safety, security, and economic prosperity. Failing to uphold them would undermine U.S. leadership, weaken global stability, and increase long-term costs.
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Annex 1
Congressional Legislative Mandate
USAID operates under a comprehensive legal framework established by Congress to govern its global health assistance programs. This framework consists of both authorization and appropriation legislation, which define the agency’s legal authorities, funding allocations, and programmatic requirements. The following sections outline the key legislative mandates shaping USAID’s global health initiatives.
Authorization Legislation: USAID’s global health assistance is primarily authorized under Section 104 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (FAA), as amended. Key amendments include the 2000 Global AIDS and Tuberculosis Relief Act and the United States Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003 (PEPFAR Authorization), with subsequent reauthorizations in 2008, 2013, and 2018. Additionally, the annual State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Act (SFOAA) provides more specific authorizations and requirements for health assistance. Other relevant legislation includes the Global Malnutrition Prevention and Treatment Act of 2021 and various FAA provisions outside Section 104 that address global health programs. Furthermore, the annual SFOAA and select provisions of other legislation, such as the National Defense Authorization Act, define and grant additional legal authorities for USAID’s global health efforts.
Appropriation Legislation: Funding for USAID’s global health programs is appropriated annually through the SFOAA, which imposes specific legal requirements that must be met each fiscal year. USAID is not authorized to deviate from these funding allocations except in rare, exigent circumstances and only with statutory approvals and notifications. Additionally, certain Congressionally mandated disease-specific directives may not be fulfilled due to the termination of awards.
Congressional Directive Categories20:
● HIV/AIDS, which includes the following sub-activities identified by Congress: Global
● Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), and Microbicides. Associated Program Area: HL.1 HIV/AIDS. $330M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Tuberculosis, which includes the following activities identified by Congress: Global TB Drug Facility. Associated Program Area: HL.2 Tuberculosis. $394.5M
20 Congressional directive categories are outlined in the Global Health Programs account table included in the Joint Explanatory Statement accompanying each annual appropriations act. For example, for the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2024, P.L.118-47, Division F, the Joint Explanatory Statement is available at https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20240318/Division%20F%20SFOPs.pdf.
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appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Malaria, Associated Program Area: HL.3 Malaria. $795M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Global Health Security, Associated Program Area: HL.4 Global Health Security in Development (GHSD) $700M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Other Public Health Threats, which includes the following sub-activities identified by Congress: Neglected Tropical Diseases, Global Health Workforce, Health Reserve Fund. Associated Program Area: HL.5 Other Public Health Threats (NTDs). $130.5M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Maternal and Child Health (MCH), which includes the following activities identified by Congress: Polio, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), and Maternal and Neonatal Tetanus. Associated Program Area: HL.6 Maternal and Child Health. $915M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Family Planning/Reproductive Health.
Associated Program Area: HL.7 Family Planning and Reproductive Health (FP/RH). $523.95M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Nutrition, which includes the following activities identified by Congress: Iodine Deficiency Disorder, Micronutrients (of which, Vitamin A), and Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Foods. Associated Program Area: HL.9 Nutrition. $165M
appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
● Vulnerable Children, which includes the following activity identified by Congress: Blind Children. Associated Program Area: ES.4.1 Education & Social Services - Vulnerable Children. $31.5M appropriated for this purpose in FY24 alone.
Funding Status21
Of the $3.985B in Fiscal Year 2024 resources appropriated directly to USAID for Global Health Programs (GHP-USAID account) for the specific health objectives described above, approximately $2.559B (64%) has been blocked from obligation to partners.
Estimated Amounts of FY24 GHP-USAID Funding Impacted by Obligation Pause, by Congressionally Directed Program Area
21 Funding data pulled from Phoenix Viewer/Enterprise Reporting Portal as of 2/27/2025. All figures are estimates based on high level data analysis.
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Appropriated ($) | Pending Obligation ($) - Obligation Paused by EO | Percent (%) | |
HL.1 HIV/AIDS | 330,000,000 | 73,843,370 | 22.38% |
HL.2 Tuberculosis | 394,500,000 | 307,064,905 | 77.84% |
HL.3 Malaria | 795,000,000 | 669,862,736 | 84.26% |
HL.4 Global Health Security | 700,000,000 | 675,948,708 | 96.56% |
HL.5 Other Public Health Threats | 130,500,000 | 90,522,107 | 69.37% |
HL.6 Maternal and Child Health | 915,000,000 | 514,965,280 | 56.28% |
HL.7 Family Planning and Reproductive Health | 523,950,000 | 55,633,306 | 10.62% |
HL.9 Nutrition | 165,000,000 | 144,297,173 | 87.45% |
ES.4 Vulnerable Children | 31,500,000 | 31,500,000 | 100.00% |
TOTAL | 3,985,450,000 | 2,563,637,585 | 64.32% |
Notes: These figures are likely underestimates of the amounts planned but with obligation paused from moving to implementing partners, as they do not account for funds bilaterally obligated into a USAID Mission Development Objective Agreement, which are no longer able to be subobligated to partners. FY24 funds are the most recent year of health resources available to USAID, as no FY25 GHP-USAID resources have yet been appropriated, and the Agency has not sought access to any of these resources under the current Continuing Resolution. All GHP-USAID resources from appropriation years prior to FY24 were 100% obligated in advance of their expiration.
Of the total GHP-USAID resources appropriated directly to USAID from all fiscal years, at least $5.143B is currently obligated to implementing partners but not yet expended/disbursed – this total (100%) has been suspended as a result of the foreign assistance pause and related terminations from further use towards the specific health objectives mandated by Congress and described above.
Estimated Amounts of Previously Obligated GHP-USAID Funding (All FYs) Paused from Expenditure/Disbursement, by Congressionally Directed Program Area
Obligated to Implementing Partners and Currently Paused from Expenditure/Disbursement ($) | |
HL.1 HIV/AIDS | 1,517,719,650 |
HL.2 Tuberculosis | 432,931,737 |
HL.3 Malaria | 536,862,171 |
HL.4 Global Health Security | 645,082,469 |
HL.5 Other Public Health Threats | 91,529,255 |
HL.6 Maternal and Child Health | 669,510,301 |
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HL.7 Family Planning and Reproductive Health | 727,320,899 |
HL.9 Nutrition | 229,327,337 |
ES.4 Vulnerable Children | 37,706,284 |
Other, inc. Administrative and Program Oversight | 254,755,321 |
TOTAL | 5,142,745,424 |
Notes: The figures above reflect total amounts of currently unexpended/undisbursed Global Health funding obligated to implementing partners. Virtually all expenditures, disbursements, and payments to partners have been halted due to lack of essential staff, lack of systems access, and foreign assistance review processes superimposed over regular procedures, impacting this full total. The total estimated amount of Global Health funds obligated to implementing partners from all fiscal years according to Phoenix data as of 2/27/2025 is $76,327,410,581. The ~$5.1B pending expenditure/disbursement represents 6.7 percent of these total obligations.
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