Why the Memecoin Supercycle will fail
What is the Memecoin Supercycle?
The Memecoin Supercycle Theory posits that there is an ongoing or forthcoming period where meme-based cryptocurrencies, or memecoins, will experience significant growth, outpacing traditional cryptocurrency categories.
https://x.com/MustStopMurad/status/1839732601759641960
Investor and memecoin analyst Murad Mahmudov’s memecoin supercycle theory has gained traction among traders.
The theory, in short, states that a confluence of factors will create an essentially unending supercycle for meme-centric cryptocurrencies.
But unlike other crypto market narratives with complex technical explanations and mechanics, memecoins appear to rely solely on community, emotion and the promise of wealth.
Despite the lack of memecoin fundamentals, traders are drawn to the sense of camaraderie and the promise of rapid gains….
….veteran crypto traders have realized that most tokens marketed as providing technical solutions — so-called utility coins — lack real intrinsic value and utility beyond speculative price movements. Mahmudov covered this matter during a presentation at Token2049, quoting an X user who argued:
“Nearly all of the tech in crypto is a smoke screen designed to sell you a token that does nothing.”
https://cointelegraph.com/news/memecoin-supercycle-crypto-markets
Origins and Advocacy:
The term was notably popularized by Murad Mahmudov, a crypto analyst and investor, who has suggested that memecoins could enter a phase of unprecedented growth due to their unique characteristics and market dynamics. This theory has gained traction among traders and investors on platforms like X and in crypto forums.
https://x.com/MustStopMurad/status/1847701852856447270
Memecoins thrive on community engagement, emotional resonance, and the cultural significance of memes, rather than traditional financial fundamentals or utility.
They leverage internet culture, viral marketing, and social media buzz for rapid popularity and value increase.
Factors like economic uncertainty or dissatisfaction with traditional finance can drive investment into these high-risk assets for potential high returns.
Analysts predict that memecoins could dominate the market, with predictions of significant market cap increases and even some memecoins potentially reaching over $100 billion in market cap.
This cycle is seen by some as leading to the creation of large "Digital Tribes" around the most successful memecoins, suggesting a concentration of growth in a few major players.
For those who believe in the theory, strategies include diversification across meme coins, engaging with communities, and timing the market to buy at lows and sell at highs during the hype cycles.
The Memecoin Supercycle Theory suggests a paradigm where cultural and community engagement trumps traditional economic fundamentals in driving the value of cryptocurrencies, potentially reshaping the crypto market landscape.
Why this theory will remain as that, just a theory.
In this document, we will explore these critical factors—overall dilution, market manipulation, and regulatory uncertainty—to argue that the concept of a memecoin supercycle is fraught with challenges. As we delve into each of these elements, it will become clear that while the idea of a memecoin supercycle may capture the imagination of investors and enthusiasts alike, its practical realization is unlikely in the face of these significant obstacles.
Dilution
The cryptocurrency market has seen an explosion in the number of new tokens being launched. Reports indicate that over 504,000 new tokens were created by April 2024, with thousands more introduced daily. This saturation leads to a significant dilution of value across existing tokens, as the sheer volume makes it difficult for any single token to maintain a stable price or market interest.
Record Number of New Meme Coin Projects in 2024
The growing popularity of alternative blockchains like Solana and BSC and the emergence of token-creating platforms like Pump.fun have fueled an avalanche of new meme coins over the past few years.
Just between April and August 2024, over 500 new meme coins were listed on CoinMarketCap, with a record 138 new additions seen in April alone.
And as of October, CoinMarketCap has over 3,000 meme coins listed. But this is just scratching the surface on meme coin projects, considering Pump.fun helped launch 1.7+ million meme coins to date.
Though this trend proves the high interest in meme coin projects right now, it’s also contributing to a dispersed market dealing with increasing liquidity fragmentation.
With meme coins typically capitalizing on attention and community support, the ever-growing number of meme coins could mean higher competition and lower potential for upcoming projects – many of which already have an average life cycle of just five days.
According to a recent report from BDC, a Web3 consulting provider, 89% of meme coin projects have a market cap between $0–$1,000, and 43% have 0 trading volume.
Not only that, but only 5% of meme coins have a market cap of over $10 million in 2024. This data was based on a sample of 2,000 projects.
In other words, it seems market competition is at an all-time high, and a vast majority of meme coins are doomed to fail. (techreport Oct-24-2024)
The ease of creating new memecoins contributes to this problem. For instance, platforms like Solana have made it possible to launch a token for minimal costs—sometimes even free—compared to previous standards where creating a coin could cost significantly more
“Without a doubt pump fun messed it up even more due to too much dilution cuz of the super easy access to make a coin . When it comes to businesses their first main focus on selling to rich ppl , as it’s easier to do a lot of good for a small amount of ppl compared to a little good for a large amount of people . Prime example is Tesla , Elon Musk started only selling to rich people like the Roadstar for $250000, they sold and then he was able to to go down market one and sell $100000 cars , then after that did well he went lower for working class to afford more easily The issue but blessing at first was that Buying Solana is cheap AF , so it’s already focusing on the masses, but it was controlled better with high cost of creating coins and having liquidity for ppl to use their solana on so there was balance atleast but with pump fun the marketing down went wayyyyy too low too drastically . The model works but with pump fun being super cheap to make coins its messed up the supply and demand by alot ,before it cost minimum 12-15 sol to create a coin , now it costs less than $2 , I even saw pump run say coin creation is free now and you get a bonus of 0.5 sol if curve goal is reached , lol even better , I see why ETH coins have better longevity despite the high gas fees” (prozerman r/solana reddit Sep-2024)
This low barrier encourages rampant token creation without substantial backing or utility, further diluting the overall market.
“Meme dillution in full effect. The silent majority losing money on new launches but afraid to say anything. It WAS a good year for memes and meme traders but doesn't mean it's going to continue just because you joined late.” (@IncomeSharks on X Oct 28 2024)
“#Solana dominated 89% of the 181k new tokens issued in a span of a year, with a major driver of activity being http://pump.fun memecoin launches.
$SOL towards $500+ ✅” (@ChristiaanDeFi on X Nov-16-2024)
“The Solana ecosystem has been the epicenter of an explosion in new token launches, reaching 89% of all tokens launched in 2024, according to data obtained from Dune Analytics.
This phenomenon is being mainly driven by memecoins, which continue to dominate the market.
Although the network is experiencing a boom in the issuance of these digital assets, the success rate for tokens to be listed on decentralized exchanges like Raydium is surprisingly low, with only 1% reaching that stage.
The data, which comes from a series of analyses conducted by blockchain analytics platform Dune, shows that in the last week alone, 181,000 new tokens were launched on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), most of them related to memecoins.” (Crypto-economy Nov-15-2024)
Many memecoins are subject to speculative trading, where their value is driven more by hype than by any intrinsic value or utility. This can lead to pump-and-dump schemes, where the price is artificially inflated before being sold off, leaving later investors with worthless tokens. Such practices exacerbate dilution as they create volatility and uncertainty in the market
“The downside of meme coins is that they often lack a solid foundation or purpose beyond the memes they represent. Their value primarily stems from speculative behavior, making them highly volatile and unpredictable. For instance, PEPE’s volatility reached almost $3 billion on May 6th.
Consequently, these investments can lead to considerable financial losses for investors who don’t tread carefully.
PEPE skyrocketed 5415% to its All-Time High (ATH) from the lowest price point, only to plummet 73% within the following week.
SHIBA follows a similar pattern, with an explosive growth of 1200% leading to its ATH in a few weeks and a steep decline of 80% the following months.
While the prospect of such a return on investment (ROI) may sound tempting, the reality often falls short, and the risk of an equivalent loss is an alarming possibility. Promoting education and transparency in the crypto space is crucial to make people more aware of the risks associated with meme coins.” (Blog CLC partners)
“Memecoin dilution/liquidity fragmentation are a real problem on solana. It’s becoming increasingly harder for a coin to reach escape velocity.” (@Penguinaire on X Jun-21-2024)
“CT understands memecoin oversaturation.
More coins = liquidity spread thin
CT does not understand that memecoin oversaturation = community dilution.
How can you truly be a “cult” if your community is shilling other coins?
Anyone remember bitcoin maxis?
Imagine somebody who is a cowboys AND an eagles fan?” (@gigagriff on X Sep-27-2024)
“We’re at a point where dilution is becoming truly massive. Today, being a memecoin KOL is one of the highest-paid professions. Everywhere I look, I see 10, if not 100, new memecoins being shilled daily. This will lead to an implosion and a bubble burst, and I keep repeating it. Retail investors are being led to jump from one project to another.
If you want to play this game keep always this in mind. “ (@cryptopaul on X Oct-8-2024)
“perhaps unpopular opinion;
memecoin dilution will become an issue in 2025, hindering the gains of 'blue chip winners'
100B+ targets should be abandoned; not impossible for the likes of DOGE/PEPE, but expectations should be curbed
aim for 10-20x on most and be happy” (@smileycapital on X Oct-13-2024)
“Memecoin dilution is real even if you can't feel it
Memes will be harder to pump over time because more memes will compete for liquidity and not less. Think of Doge & Shib and compare it to current memes. ATH mcap has been trending down over time for new memes not up.”(@DeFiMinty on X OCt-25-2024)
“I agree with Arthur in the sense that memecoin dilution is real and the more people get burned, the less likely it is they'll stay in this space. Not a great look
But at the same time, memeland is largely PvP right now. It's just crypto bros shredding other crypto bros and the longer this goes on, the more big accounts get caught up in it trying to make a buck (or millions) leaving outsiders hung out to dry
At the end of the day, all you have in this space is your reputation. And if you want to go scorched earth and risk it all for some profit, that's on you. Go for it. You reap what you sow. Sure, you can be a KOL transparently but it's a thin line to walk” (@stack_sats Aug-8-2024)
“Looks like base has some serious memecoin dilution happening…
this means we need to be quicker about taking our profits because the trends in these low cap coins will only last for days, maybe even hours sometimes” (@0xroto on X Mar-22-20242)
“Not every project is going to catch a bid this cycle
In previous cycles.. The rising tide would lift all boats
Now.. So much dilution has made that a thing of the past
I've been caught out by this..
My thought process was that things would be similar to past cycles..
But with thousands of meme coins being created every single day on chains like $SOL and #Base..
There are simply too many projects being created daily to sustain liquidity across the vast array of assets
I do believe research of quality projects is as crucial as ever..
But even that is sometimes not good enough in this current market
I am currently holding a bunch of projects I perceive to be fundamentally strong.. Which are heavily under-performing
I always thought that these strong fundamentals and executing adoption strategies would pay off eventually..
But I am coming to the realization that the market may be telling me I am wrong
Does this mean to throw in the towel and become a full degen fuckwit and just trade memes?
No.. But I do think it shows that if we're to continue down the path of investing based on fundamentals..
Now is the time to be as critical and selective as ever
It's not enough to just show up to the party anymore..
You now have to prove why you deserve to stay” (@DreadBong0 on X Jun-10-2024)
“Imo memecoin dilution already started and will happen real fast. If you hold them, you'll likely feel weird about them in a month.” (@GraffeDino on X May-16-2024)
As more tokens flood the market, investors may become wary of investing in new projects due to fears of dilution and loss of value. This can lead to a lack of trust in the memecoin ecosystem, as potential investors may perceive it as a gambling environment rather than a legitimate investment opportunity
“Reasons for why I'm bearish memes
>There are infinite memes already
>Every day there are thousands more
>Bunch of people bought into the GME -> Meme rotation narrative (which is beyond retarded IMO)
>Charts don't look so good across the board
>Sentiment is heavily skewed bull
I also think at current BTC price levels we've attracted almost all the retards willing to buy objectively bad meme coins
Too much money flowing into new memes dilutes that even further
You'd either need BTC to giga print to attract outsiders in or a massive liquidity injection” (CryptoDonAlt on X May-16-2024)
“pump fun accelerated dilution so much, I think it’s the biggest net negative product crypto has ever created, closely followed by FTX and LUNA.” (@JukovCrypto Aug-9-2024)
“memecoins are like DEFI 20-21 with less extraction but more dilution
it's an interesting dynamic tbh
confidence is going to lock a tonne of this up soon, should be interesting” (@pseudoanomaly on X Nov-8-2024)
“Why are most altcoins bleeding?
The reasons are straightforward:
- Increased token issuance amid memecoin frenzy
- Lack of fresh capital inflow (or extremely concentrated flow to BTC)
- Absence of crypto native innovation
This leads to dilution” (@BTCThinker88 on X Jun-18-2024)
“I still think we going lot higher from here but most ppl arent prepared for memecoin dilution.
there are a lot more memes vs 2021 so could be a case where we see some dilution
this could reduce chances of a meme hitting $100b mc in 2025 outside of DOGE” (@unvested on X Oct-13-2024)
“Memecoin dilution is exponential
When this happened with NFTs we saw a couple of things happen:
-Flight to quality: trusted brands and high quality players concentrate the liquidity, with bursts of new excitement here and there when a new kid comes around
-Utility meta: when there's no substance anywhere, we seek utility to hang our value thesis on
-Provenance: in a sea of copycats and derivatives, we seek the first and the original as having a greater inherent value
-Innovation: when things get boring, of there is apathy and compression of interest, this is often fertile grounds for the new and creative ideas to flourish, because they contrast with the norm more sharply
Given a form of the above already happens and will happen more, where does the current liquidity slosh around to?” (@glenn_ftw on X Jun-15-2024)
“Memecoins represent the biggest casino that has ever existed on Earth, with increasing dilution every day.” (@Memebrc on x Aug-10-2024)
“100.000+ tokens created in 1 week on $SOL is what too much dilution looks like, if you wonder why your favorite memecoin isn’t pumping much anymore here’s your answer.” (@0x1Mu5 on X Jul-8-2024)
“Dilution is the death of your favorite memecoin.
Dilution through distraction.” (@GavBTC on X Oct-10-2024)
“Dilution has destroyed the memecoin market on Ethereum. $Pepe is no longer a top 100 coin.” (@BasedMoneyLich on X Nov-19-2023)
The introduction of numerous low-value tokens can disrupt market dynamics, making it challenging for established memecoins to retain their value. For example, trading volumes can shift rapidly towards newly launched tokens, drawing liquidity away from older projects and causing their prices to drop significantly.
Manipulation
The memecoin market is notably susceptible to manipulation, primarily due to its speculative nature and the influence of social media. Here’s a brief overview of how market manipulation occurs within this sector:
“If you can’t spot the sucker at the poker table - it’s you! This is exactly why you shouldn’t buy memecoins!” (@VinnyLingham on X Oct-27-2024)
“I talked to a person who made $2.4M by launching memecoin farms
Here’s how they scam you: (and how to avoid it in the future)” (@PixOnChain on X Oct-27-2024)
“First thing a memecoin farmer (read "scammer") does is reverse engineer how you trade.
Most people have simple filters:
- funny? buy
- good site? buy
- followed by cool people? buy
- huge volume? buy
- hodlers growing? buy
So they focus on these things...
Making a funny memecoin or a good site is fairly simple, you don't need any special knowledge for that
You can also buy Twitter accounts followed by celebrities for $20-$400
The tough part is faking on-chain metrics
Most memecoin farmers use just three tools:
- Sniper bot
- Transactions bot
- Volume bot
They occasionally mix in others, but these are the essentials
A sniper bot is used when launching a coin to buy a huge chunk of the supply
To make it less obvious - it's usually done with 5-20 different wallets
Here's the interface of one of such tools:”(@PixOnChain on X Oct-27-2024)
“Once the coin is launched - farmer's focus shifts to 2 things:
- Pumping the volume
- Increasing the number of holders
And yes, you guessed it — they have bots for this too…
Volume bots work like this:
A farmer sets up 10+ wallets to buy and sell random coin amounts.
To spot them look for wallets with huge $ in total buys and sells, with minimal profit”(@PixOnChain on X Oct-27-2024)
“Most people don’t check holders, they just look if the amount is growing
So what scammers do is disperse a few SOL between hundreds of wallets and set orders to buy coin at certain valuations
They do it for hundreds of wallets, so individual buys are really tiny”(@PixOnChain on X Oct-27-2024)
“Final part is dumping on you
This is a fairly simple step
Most farmers use bundled-sell bots
They just set up high-priority settings with high bribes and suck up all the liquidity”(@PixOnChain on X Oct-27-2024)
“To spot a farm, look for:
- High sniping/bundling (see who funded the top holders)
- Fake volume (check top traders)
- Fake holders (freshly funded/hold only 1 coin)
Don't be fooled by:
- Nice website/socials
- Famous followers
Use these tips to avoid most farms”(@PixOnChain on X Oct-27-2024)
“Yesterday, $GIGA price dropped 85% in a single transaction.
3 large addresses were emptied in 9QWpPz, which immediately dumped for $2.3M
@stigstigstig_ said he was hacked” (@Bubblemaps on X Nov-12-2024)
“These 3 addresses from
@stigstigstig_ belong to a 65-address cluster holding 13% of the total supply.
This includes 7AFQEA (dumpingonyourhead.sol), which appears to be owned by
@stigstigstig_ as well, based on his tweets
Why is this 13% cluster showing on $GIGA?
Possible reasons:
• Payment to a community member for handling ads, listings, etc.
• Whales helping someone through a rough patch ($1M, though?)
• OTC deals
But the initial explanations don’t fully add up.
Memecoins can be risky
Our top 10 clusters % can help you identify healthy distribution
$GIGA was the 3rd most concentrated token in this list: the risk became real” (@Bubblemaps on X Nov-12-2024)
“Saying 'I was hacked' is understandably a major red flag🚩. This is often the excuse used by scammers, especially in NFT and crypto projects where their wallets got 'hacked.'
This is just an example of what @stigstigstig_ mentioned about being hacked.” (@Mavie_sol on X Nov-13-2024)
“IIt's basic game theory: "If enough paper millionaires exit before I do, the value of my bag would plummet... should I take my money while I still can??"
This is the first major test of how strongly holders believe in Murad's vision
Let's see 🧐” (@digital_slowmad on X Nov-12-2024)
“Curious why your memecoin trading is down -90%?
While you see countless 100x deal screenshots on Crypto Twitter, you're likely being manipulated by insiders inflating token popularity.” (@0xDecision on X Oct-16-2024)
“➥The two main factors that can make a token popular are:
1. Trading Volume: How much it is traded.
2. Number of Holders: How many people own it.
➥However, these numbers can be easily manipulated, which is how some insiders try to trick you.
➥Let’s learn how to recognize these tricks:
➥They have various strategies at their disposal for this:
- Making individual purchases
- Enlisting trusted friends
- Utilizing automated software that acquires the token through thousands of different wallets
➥Typically, insiders prefer the third option.” (@0xDecision on X Oct-16-2024)
“Almost every meme token that have bonded from pumpfun, have dumped within minutes of bonding.
Observe very careful before you ape.” (@kzresearch5 on X Nov-12-2024)
“I don't see how the memecoins fervor can go on at this pace of extraction.
Eventually, you run out of fish just like what happened to online pokers decades ago.” (@Arthur0x on X Aug-8-2024)
“5 Insider Wallets Earned Over $4M on $RTR in Just 6 Hours!
$RTR is a new #MEMEcoin created 6 hours ago.
5 wallets spent ~5,580 $SOL($882K) to buy 104.64M $RTR the first time $RTR opened trading, and sold 92.77M $RTR for 31,994 $SOL($5.05M), making 26,414 $SOL($4.17M).
These 5 wallets were all newly created today, withdrew funds from #Coinbase and #Bybit, and only bought $RTR, which is obviously insiders.” (@Lookonchain on X Aug-8-2024)
“ YOU. ARE. ALWAYS. FREAKING. EXIT. LIQUIDITY.
You make money trading meme coins by finding someone else to be YOUR exit liquidity.
This is the epitome of the greater fool theory.
DOGE, the most successful {meme coin} of ALL time, is down 90% from its ATH.
Let that sink in.” (@Zeneca on X May-5-2023)
“Don’t be naive, most of what you see is fake, especially with memecoins.
99% of insiders manipulate millions of $$ in fake trading volume to attract buyers.” (@the_smart_ape on X Sep-2-2024)
Rug pulls
“The Dark Art of Rugging: 98% of Memecoins Are Scams
Rugging, a fraudulent practice in the crypto world, is rampant, especially in the memecoin market. An anonymous trader known as "Phantom" revealed how he exploits this space on Pump[dot]Fun, making up to $60,000 weekly by deceiving investors. Using a "mass sniper" method, Phantom sets up tokens with fake demand, luring buyers before executing a "dump all" command, crashing the token's value. His strategy involves creating multiple tokens quickly, using tools like DogWiffTools to automate and simulate interest, making it easy for anyone to replicate these scams.
Phantom’s revelations, shared in an interview with crypto YouTuber NFT Nate, shows the widespread nature of these rug pulls, with 98.5% of tokens launched on platforms like Pump[dot]Fun being dumped before reaching exchanges. The ease and scale of these operations underscore the ruthless environment of the memecoin market, where participants often see it as a choice between scamming others or being scammed themselves.” (@veritas_web3 on X Aug-20-2024)
“HUGE MEMECOIN MANIPULATION WARNING!
If you trade memecoins, be aware of upcoming manipulations that could trigger Pump & Dump schemes.
There’s talk about selling private keys to SOL wallets with large PnL as part of a strategy to promote cabal tokens.
@orangie made over $1M on SOL memecoins.
Yesterday, he tweeted about receiving a lucrative offer to sell the private key to his old wallets, which hold over $100K in speculative profits.
1: One of the reasons, as he mentions, is that the buyer can use such a wallet to gain access to a private group, proving their level of skill.
2: But I also see this as a future marketing element—where some projects might start pushing the narrative like:
"Look, this account that made 600x on such-and-such token just bought [token's ticker]" ” (@0xHvdes on x Oct-12-2024)
“I accumulated a spot bag of 0.4% circulating supply of NEIROETH because I've seen the value of manipulation in it.
- at current price its 73M marketcap on Binance perp, Bybit perp and other multiple exchanges, its the smallest marketcap memecoin on Binance perp. Access to perp markets on cex makes market manipulators more willing to start the music chair game.
- The cabal team behind sold out after Binance spot listed the NEIROCTO one, makes this coin is also in a community take over state.
- People in general loves NEIRO narrative and think that its gonna be the next PEPE, but the NEIROCTO one is already 600M marketcap, NEIROETH tho, is still sitting at 73M, its cheaper & easier to pump the price up.” (@Vida_BWE on X Oct-10-23024)
“Made $1 Million with His Own Memecoin! Shocking Manipulation Allegations. Michael Bouhanna, Vice President of Sotheby’s, is facing serious manipulation accusations after reportedly earning over $1 million through his self-created memecoin, BAN.” (@Neome_com on X Oct-27-2024)
Memecoin Cabal
A cabal is often described as a secret or exclusive group of individuals who are united in promoting and potentially manipulating the market for certain memecoins. They are typically insiders with early access to information about upcoming coin launches or market moves.
The Cabal often gets involved in memecoins early on, sometimes even before public knowledge of the coin, to maximize profits from the initial hype and market entry. They might coordinate buying and selling to drive up the price or create market interest.
The term carries a somewhat negative connotation, suggesting manipulation or insider trading. Posts on X and discussions in crypto communities often highlight the Cabal's role in creating pump-and-dump schemes or influencing market trends to their advantage, often at the expense of retail investors or "normies."
While some view the Cabal as detrimental due to their insider advantages, others see these groups as part of the memecoin ecosystem, driving liquidity and interest. However, there's a general caution among investors about the risks involved with investing in memecoins, especially those promoted heavily by such groups.
Specific memecoins like $PNUT and $ACT have been mentioned as examples where a cabal might have played a role in market manipulation or significant price movement.
“You can tell if a Memecoin is Legit or a Cabal Scam just by its art style and people around it
RED FLAGS:
– Cheap illustrations (fiverr artists)
– Expensive, high end videos/art
– Both extremes are a warning sign
– forced/cringe memes
– fake/paid community
– sketchy KOLs” (@MustStopMurad on X Sep-5-2024)
“All jokes aside I legit feel bad for the people who poured their hearts and souls (and money) into some of these “cabal” meme coins.
We bitch and moan about “the cabal” but “the cabal” bets on strong teams because otherwise it’s chaos.
Way too many value extractors in this space for the big players to bet on some anon dev. Makes a lot of sense for them to wait for a good team to launch and gather funds for exchanges/ funding/ etc via a bundle.
The anti cabal narrative from the exchanges themselves is a little retarded if they plan on being so impossible with teams trying to get their tokens listed.
Where is everyone going to get the money to pay for a Binance/ HTX etc listing if there’s no bundle?
If the exchanges are going to destroy and deny “cabal” launches then I hope they plan on actually following through and supporting communities.
I hope they stop demanding absurd amounts of money and coordination for listings. I hope they start caring about our space and the success of strong memes instead of whoever pays them the most money.
Otherwise they are just causing destruction of one of the last means of sending something sky high.” )@LexaproTrader on X Sep-16-2024)
“What is a Cabal
A cabal is a secret group of united degens and retards that are all insiders on a newly launched coin with strong enough narrative to stand out in the market.
The term has negative load as normies are buying on top off the cabal, only one thing normies forget is that the cabal usually is a group of normies who got invited cuz someone decided they should all become cabal.” (@KingsBlessing on X Nov-6-2024)
“New cabal meme coin just launched so here’s a leak from the pitch deck claiming 50 “tier 1” influencers onboarded.” (@Zachxbt on X Oc-23-2024)
“if you're not a part of cabal, kols and you're just a guy from trenches, I highly recommend to fix every possible profit from any activities.
You need to keep in mind that you will need money to short every memecoin and shitcoins on the market later when It will start crushing
I know this bullshit "be a believer", there's literally less that 0.1% of ppl who will make it by believing in their bags
Be smart, be rational, do not get influenced by big guys saying to you "be a believer" and do not forget to fix profits, you will need it for shorts later“ (@SterhCrypto on X Nov-13-2024)
Market manipulation in the memecoin sector is a complex issue driven by speculative trading practices, social media dynamics, and regulatory gaps. Let’s see how far this can run, but honestly it seems like there’s no much time left.
Trump and GOP Party recent victory represents a threat to memecoin supercycle
The recent victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the 2024 U.S. elections has sparked discussions about potential impacts on various sectors, including the cryptocurrency market and specifically memecoins. Here's an analysis of how this political shift might pose a threat to memecoins:
“The 2024 United States elections have seen hundreds of pro-crypto candidates elected as results from across the nation continue to roll in.
At the time of writing, data from Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto (SWC) website shows pro-crypto officials have been elected across most states. According to the site’s map, only New Mexico, Alaska, Hawaii, Vermont and Maine have yet to elect a pro-crypto candidate.
Data from SWC indicates that 247 pro-crypto candidates have been elected to the House of Representatives, compared to 113 anti-crypto officials. In the Senate, 15 pro-crypto candidates have been elected, while 10 anti-crypto candidates have secured seats.” (Cointelegraph Nov-6-2024)
“To further ingratiate myself with Solana fans, here's an argument of why a Trump win and/or Republican sweep is bearish memecoins.
i) Memecoins themselves are a form of economic populism. They are a statement against the unfair ( and often grifty) tokenomics of VC-backed and insider coins.
ii) But VC-backed coins are a modern phenomenon forced upon us by the toxicity of the Gensler/Warren regime. As are extreme measures like geo-blocked airdrops, VPN blocks, and so on.
iii) A Republican sweep undoes all of that and brings back ICOs, airdrops for all, and other kinds of token sanity.
iv) A Republican sweep also enables fee switches and token dividends and other economically productive ways to return value to token-holders that memecoins don't have.
Ergo: regulatory sanity in America is bad for memecoins because it refocuses crypto on dApps and other things that actually matter, leading to a prolonged bear market where most people lose money on them.
Not investment advice. Except for the part about people losing money on memecoins. That's definitely investment advice. It's inevitable no matter what happens in the election. Every joke eventually stops being funny.” (@malekanoms on X Oct-27-2024)
This opinion by Part time Columbia profession Omid Malekan presents an argument suggesting that a potential victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the upcoming elections would have negative implications for memecoins in the cryptocurrency market
The author posits that memecoins represent a form of economic populism, acting as a counter-narrative to what they perceive as the unfair practices associated with venture capital (VC)-backed cryptocurrencies. This perspective frames memecoins as a grassroots response to established financial systems that are often viewed as exploitative or "grifty"
“Memecoins currently boast a staggering market capitalization of $61 billion, according to CoinGecko. As Malekan pointed out, a Republican sweep might restore initial coin offerings and fully open token airdrops, countering the pressures from the SEC and figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren. Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, echoed this sentiment, stating that the need for memecoins diminishes when the SEC eases regulations.
While Malekan’s analysis paints a rather grim picture for memecoins, some industry players are more optimistic. They argue that a Trump victory could actually fuel renewed enthusiasm for altcoins, thanks to his pro-crypto promises. This has left many wondering whether the market might rally if his campaign rhetoric translates into favorable policies.” (tipranksnews)
The text argues that the current regulatory landscape, influenced by figures like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, has pushed investors towards memecoins due to restrictive measures affecting traditional crypto offerings like Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), airdrops and coins with utility that have active teams behind it, or coins that offer some form of revenue sharing. The author believes that a Republican win would reverse these trends, restoring more favorable conditions for traditional crypto investments
A Republican sweep is seen as a catalyst for reintroducing mechanisms such as fee switches and token dividends, as well as utility and active development, which could enhance value for token holders—features that are typically absent in memecoins. This shift is expected to redirect focus from speculative assets to more substantive decentralized applications (dApps)
“Unpopular opinion but the new administration will be bullish for utility tokens & bearish memes
It will soon be easier to raise $ / launch without complex legal or funding structures. It'll also be easier for teams to creatively add value to holders.
This should result in an increase of quality projects launching, which should as a whole decrease pre-launch valuations & make it more attractive for smaller fish to speculate on early stage projects similar to the 2016/2017 ICO boom. If this happens, we'll see a meaningful rotation of liquidity out of memes.
Another prediction - accredited investor laws will easen, which should only further contribute to my thesis above. Crowd funding platforms will likely benefit from these changes while VCs will need to become more founder-friendly in order to retain high quality dealflow.
In general I'm very optimistic for smaller fish & those in the earlier stages of building wealth; the days of institutional money gatekeeping good investment opportunities are likely soon over.” (@AltcoinPsycho on X Nov-7-2024)
The conclusion drawn by the author is that regulatory clarity and a return to more traditional crypto frameworks would diminish the appeal of memecoins, leading to a prolonged bear market in memecoins where investors are likely to lose money. The author humorously notes that while this is not investment advice, the likelihood of losses in memecoins is almost certain regardless of political outcomes.
Interestingly, despite predictions of a negative impact, some Trump-themed memecoins experienced significant gains immediately following the election. However, this was followed by a sharp decline in prices for many of these tokens shortly after Trump's victory was confirmed.
The impact of Trump's victory on memecoins is complex and potentially contradictory. While regulatory changes and market shifts could pose threats to memecoins, the actual outcome remains uncertain. The extreme volatility observed in Trump-themed memecoins post-election underscores the unpredictable nature of this market segment.
Also memecoins hold no inherent value but since they don't have security-features like many traditional coins (that have been suppressed for a long time due to regulatory scrutiny), a lot of speculative money went there. Now that access to regular coins with utility becomes better and less scrutiny and these project can make themselves more interesting, money is very likely to flow out of the memecoin space into a newly booming utility altcoin space.
Credibility of Theory Creator
Despite his initial popularity, Murad's credibility has come under scrutiny as many of his predictions regarding specific meme coins have failed to materialize. Critics argue that his bullish calls on various tokens often coincide with peaks in their market activity, leading to accusations of market manipulation. For instance, after ZachXBT uncovered wallets linked to Murad holding approximately $24 million in meme coins, questions arose regarding the timing of his endorsements and subsequent purchases. One notable incident involved a wallet acquiring 7.5 million MINI tokens just before Murad publicly promoted them, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and market ethics.
Comments from Darshan on Murad:
1.He went missing for years after his BTC prediction was proven wrong after 2022 (basically ran away in the bear market)
2. He posts stuff like random memecoins will hit $100 bil in market cap which is just shilling
You can have a look at the image below, most of these memecoins are dead
$1000 invested equally in the Top 10 Murad Memes became $973 over the past 30 days.
$1000 invested in the AI Narrative Index by @dyorcryptoapp became $1900.
$1000 invested in the Meme Narrative Index became $1450.
Every single index by @dyorcryptoapp outperformed Murad Memes.
https://x.com/hmalviya9/status/1856225919024935272
Murad's meta, almost everything is crashing hard and even breaking support, and he still thinks u shoudl hodl, while whales are taking profits and moving to another meta, static memes are 2 metas ago
https://x.com/awpnoscope420/status/1858599001521877130
Mahmudov has a lot to gain from the memecoin hype
Observers have also pointed out that Mahmudov stands to profit personally from the proliferation of his memecoin narrative.
“Some folks will happily delude themselves that they’re going to magically get rich for one reason or another,” said Lopp, “Often it’s because someone who has an actual plan to get rich needs them to believe a narrative.”
Recent: Trump based memecoins could thrive after election no matter what
On Oct. 9, onchain investigator ZachXBT claimed that Mahmudov allegedly holds $24 million in memecoins.
This may suggest he’s putting his money where his mouth is, but it also shows he has much to gain from the memecoin supercycle narrative taking off.
Onchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that Mahmudov made $23.6 million in just four months thanks to the surge of memecoin SPX6900 (SPX).
https://cointelegraph.com/news/memecoin-supercycle-crypto-markets
Other points to potentially include (from Kevin)
- Can point to the recent TikTok meta and how their attention span is so little that nothing can build momentum and catch on to be a legit movement —- this is a microcosm of how the entire memecoin space is with the dilution and what not that we mentioned above.
- Murad shills his coins but:
- His wallets are now known so if he sells, everyone watching his wallets will dump and his coins will never reach those targets
- Also he has been accused of being a dinosaur / washed: https://x.com/KookCapitalLLC/status/1850932089983758615
- His picks get stale quickly bc of the nature of memecoins - attention is fleeting
Conclusion
In conclusion, the prospect of a memecoin supercycle appears increasingly tenuous when evaluated through the lenses of overall dilution, market manipulation, and regulatory uncertainty. Each of these factors not only undermines the foundational viability of memecoins but also highlights the inherent risks associated with investing in this speculative segment of the cryptocurrency market.
First, the overwhelming proliferation of new memecoins has led to significant market dilution. With hundreds of thousands of tokens flooding the market, each new entrant competes for attention and investment, thereby fragmenting liquidity and diminishing the potential for any single token to achieve sustainable value. This saturation creates an environment where speculative bubbles can form and burst rapidly, leaving investors vulnerable to substantial losses. As more tokens emerge without meaningful differentiation or utility, the likelihood of a lasting supercycle diminishes significantly.
Second, the memecoin market is particularly susceptible to manipulation (even more than regular coins already are), driven by its low liquidity and high volatility. Pump-and-dump schemes and social media-driven hype can artificially inflate prices, creating a façade of demand that quickly evaporates once manipulators cash out. Such practices not only erode investor confidence but also contribute to a cycle of volatility that is antithetical to the stability required for a supercycle to thrive. As long as manipulation remains rampant, genuine interest in memecoins will be overshadowed by skepticism and caution among potential retail investors.
Finally, regulatory uncertainty poses a formidable challenge to the future of memecoins. As governments around the world grapple with how to regulate cryptocurrencies, the lack of clear guidelines creates an unpredictable environment for investors and developers alike. The potential for stringent regulations caused by the rampant market manipulation and scammers and rugpullers in the memecoin scene could stifle innovation and drive participants away from the memecoin market altogether. Moreover, as regulatory frameworks change caused by a Trump plus many other pro-crypto representatives getting into office, they may favor established cryptocurrencies with clear use cases over speculative assets like memecoins, further undermining their appeal and or impact in the crypto space.
In light of these three critical factors—overall dilution, manipulation, and regulatory uncertainty—it becomes evident that the conditions necessary for a successful memecoin supercycle are lacking. As history has shown in various speculative markets, trends driven by hype and speculation are often unsustainable; thus, it is prudent to anticipate that the predicted memecoin supercycle will likely falter under these prevailing challenges.