A financial decision looms in the future for the Warriors

By Isaiah Charles November 30, 2031

As the Golden State Warriors embark on their first title defense since 2027, the organization is quickly finding themselves defending the very roster that got them here. Since Joe Lacob and Peter Gruber bought the team in 2010, they have continued to pour money into the team to ensure it remains competitive.

For more than two decades, that’s worked. The Warriors have won nine NBA championships and been to 11 NBA Finals since 2015, developing a resume that has them rivaling the peak dynasties of NBA history. Throughout that time, they have never shied away from paying big money to keep the team afloat.

They went deep into the luxury tax with the first version of the dynasty, with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. They got back to that level in the early 2020s, with Curry, Thompson, Jonathan Kuminga and Anthony Edwards. Now, they are on the precipice of reaching those heights yet again.

Jevon Rolle and Kuminga headline the astronomical financial salary sheet the Warriors are developing, along with Shane Ruffin and, eventually, Deonte Dixon. While sitting almost $20 million over the $162 million luxury tax this season, the Warriors are already hovering around what the tax line would be next season with just 10 players.

There is no part of the Warriors organization that welcomed the departure of Evan Mobley. His skillset boosted the Warriors to peak dominance, but the price tag for him would’ve served to only push the team deeper into the luxury tax and potentially have forced the team into even tougher decisions than the ones they face now.

For reference, here is the team’s current salary sheet:

In the eyes of the immediate future, the Warriors could shed salary by trading away Lonnie Walker IV and Tyrese Maxey, neither of whom are expected to fill major roles in the rotation. But the organization also isn’t enamored with the idea of having to use a first round pick, of which they have few and just barely were able to somewhat refill the cupboard with the Mobley sign-and-trade, to offload one or both of their deals.

Next season, although being a costly one, doesn’t appear to be the challenging year. Despite Ruffin’s contract extension kicking in next year, the Warriors will still have Dixon, Patrick Morris Sr., and Jalen Blackman on reasonable deals. The season after, however, is where decisions will need to be made.

Dixon will be owed a contract extension and is likely to get something in the $25-30 million range in year one. Meanwhile, Jaheim Briggs, Morris Sr. and Blackman will all have their contracts expiring, forcing the team to choose: bring back all three and pay a massive luxury tax bill or pick and choose who returns.

The financial argument completely overlooks the on-court one. While the case can be made for Briggs to want to return for reasonable money and play 15-20 minutes a game, the same can’t be said for Blackman and Morris Sr. Eventually, young players will want to play considerable minutes and both of those young players have the ability to back up those demands. So even if the Warriors are willing to pay, there simply won’t be enough minutes left over to get everyone playing time, including any lower contracts that the Warriors sign to fill out the roster.

News flash: even if players are excited about the prospects of playing with Rolle and Kuminga and contending for a title, basketball players still want to actually play basketball and not watch from the bench.

Which creates the double-edged question for the front office: who among those three do you need to bring back, and how much will they cost?

All three players are highly regarded in the organization. Briggs resurrected his career with Golden State. Blackman was a second round find they nabbed from the Heat. Morris Sr. was the pro-ready wing they took seven picks after Dixon three years ago.

But among them, it feels as if Morris Sr.’s position in the future is the most tenuous. Golden State can pencil in Kuminga and Dixon as their forwards for the next three years, and Ruffin is coming off his first All Star appearance. There simply aren’t many minutes left over for Morris Sr., especially when considering the Warriors don’t love playing Kuminga at the five for extended minutes, something that would, in theory, open minutes for Morris Sr. on the wing.

There’s the added function that Morris Sr. simply isn’t as dynamic as an on-ball creator as the Warriors would like. Briggs can facilitate the offense, as can Blackman, and Ruffin has proven to be no slouch. Dixon might be the best young wing playmaker in the league. Morris Sr. shoots with deadly accuracy and can defend wings, but shooters can be found for cheap - look no further than Keon Granger (SF, 76), who is a 39% career 3-point shooter -  and Dixon and Kuminga are among the best defensive forwards in the league.

The biggest argument to keeping Morris Sr. is that eventually Kuminga, who is 29, will no longer be an All-NBA forward. But how far away is that, and is Morris Sr. willing to wait it out? Let’s say Kuminga has three more years of peak play, plus two more seasons after that of still great if not elite production before he ceases to be the same player. Is Morris Sr. willing to wait five or more seasons, when he would be 26, to finally get his shot? Are the Warriors willing to pay top dollar for a forward on the bench who plays 22 minutes a game? Both seem doubtful.

The argument to cut bait with Blackman seems more simple, but when peering deeper it simply isn’t. The Warriors have Rolle, the reigning NBA MVP, why should they sink minutes and money into his backup? Well, because Rolle and Blackman can co-exist together. At 6-foot-4, Rolle can easily play next to Blackman in a super-small lineup that features uber-athletes like Dixon, Kuminga and the recently acquired Russell Kingston around them. Throw in the option for Ruffin and slide Kuminga to the five for micro doses and the Warriors would have a quartet of dynamic, high-end creators.

Briggs is the last option to potentially depart, and it seems the most unlikely. Beyond the relationship the organization and Briggs have formed, he’s exactly what the Warriors look for: a dynamic defender, a capable and selfless scorer and teammate, and a loud and respected voice in the locker room. Think back to the late-stage days of Andre Iguodala, who by the end of his career wasn’t impacting on-court winning as much as his Death Lineup peak. But the Warriors and the roster as a whole respected him far too much to let him play elsewhere, regardless the cost.

One other name to watch is Alfonzo Harrell, who has a team option for $10 million next season. Sources say the Warriors have gauged interest on a potential deal for Harrell, who averaged just 11 minutes a game last season. Harrell is a phenomenal switch defender, can hold his own inside despite being just 6-foot-9, and is a springy athlete. But the Warriors have struggled to find minutes for him. If a deal is on the table that nets the Warriors additional future firsts, don’t be surprised if they swing for it.

All told, the big decisions aren’t coming right now. Rolle, Kuminga and Ruffin are locked into deals for the next four seasons. Dixon will likely soon follow them. They have the big name players they need to compete. But the rest of the roster is far from set, and as a result of the Warriors own good drafting and development, they’ve painted themselves into tough decisions on how to keep the titles coming.