The American Express 2023

Just a few hours since another struggle of a Sunday for our picks. Taylor Montgomery looked poised for a place with three holes to play, but a stuttering finish left us grasping at thin air in our efforts for a return this week. The second Sunday of disappointment in a row, but at least we've had chances heading into the weekend on both opening events. I’ll hope for improvement again this week as we continue to get off the mark in 2023.

This week we tee it up Coachella Valley, in a notoriously difficult tournament to predict. The rotation of three courses during the first three days along with the pro-am facet of this tournament adds an extra layer of intrigue when looking for a winner. Between the three courses, La Quinta plays the easiest, with the Stadium course and the Nicklaus course playing like each other. They will play the final round at the Stadium course and that throws up exciting final leaderboards with very low scores, the norm in the California sun the norm.

Failing to seal a place with Montgomery last week hit hard as I was 100% sure he should be able to secure a place heading to the closing stages of the tournament. I hope this week we can excel and get ourselves onto the podium after 72 holes if not with our hands around the trophy.

There are five selections for you this week, and I had to talk myself out of backing a few from last week. We can improve our chances of success this week by taking a fresh look at things. The 7/1 odds on Jon Rahm represent value considering he's won three of his last four starts, but as always, I'll consider value elsewhere.

Brian Harman 1.5 pts ew 35/1 (8 places Bet365)

The 35-year-old American has begun the season brightly and with a pair of runner-up finishes already this term, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility he can go a step further this week. Five top 21 finishes here at PGA West in his nine visits show his affinity for the setup here this week. These include a pair of T3 finishes, one of which was for us last year when we picked up our first return of the season.

Last week’s tie for 31st caught me by surprise, as Harman finished 52nd of the 76 golfers who made the cut in strokes gained putting. His bread and butter is his short game and a return to a familiar and favorable stomping ground can propel him to the head of affairs come the weekend.

Adam Hadwin 1pt ew 60/1 (8 places Skybet)

The 35-year-old born in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, Canada, has been on a slow and steady return to action since both becoming a father in 2020 and overcoming recent injuries. Rested since a T7 at the Houston Open in November, there surely can’t be a better place for him to return to action. With a pair of runner-up finishes and a 59 at La Quinta CC to his name, Adam has done everything but win here.

Moving away from the past, Adam is five for five in cuts made this season. He has been steadily improving in all facets of his game before the winter break, and I believe it has fully prepared him to keep that going here in California. Ranking 11th in approach play this season joint with a return to his steady putting can allow Hadwin to a victory here this week.

Taylor Montgomery 1.5pts ew 40/1 (8 places Powers)

Following the withdrawal of Joel Dahmen, I find myself a day later back at the laptop. I spent most of the evening in limbo as I struggled between either Sam Burns or auld Taylor. I opted for the latter as perhaps it was a sign to give him one more opportunity to repay my faith in him. It’s pretty much a copy-and-paste job from last week but just adding an additional point to each of his results. Now 8 for 8 on the season and with seven top-15 finishes, he is now head and shoulders above the majority of the rookie class of this season.

Last weekend saw Taylor completely fall apart from the tee and this in turn resulted in him drawing a blank for us. I believe this week, on debut, can be his redemption story. He’s a winner in the waiting and I’m determined to stick by him this week given I received a second chance at backing him. Easier pins are the normal practice at these pro-am events and for a putter of Taylor's ability (8th in the strokes gained putting) I believe ignoring him this week would spell disaster.

Alex Smalley 1pt ew 100/1 (8 places Powers)

Perhaps not overpriced at 100/1, but still a generous price for Alex this week. His name was prevalent on several tipsters' lists last week for a reason. He’s begun this season very well despite that, at just 26, deserves respect. Last week's missed cut broke a run of five successive cuts made, containing three successive top-11 finishes (11-4-5). Finding just 39% of the fairways last week was directly responsible for his poor finish, something I hope he can improve on this week with fewer trees to deal with While normally a reliable iron player, this season's highlight has been his putting. A repeat of this combined with more competence from the tee could lead to another successful week for the PGA player, whose star status continues to grow.

Lee Hodges 1pt ew 150/1 (8 places Powers)

For the second week in a row, my last choice will be a gentleman from the state of Alabama. Admittedly, I’ll be hoping for a better result than Kizzire’s effort of finishing last of all the golfers to make the weekend, though.

Hodges is the definition of a streaky player with his record of cuts made and missed equating to almost equal over the last two seasons. Still, he is more than capable of playing sublime golf, showcased by his career-high 3rd place finish here twelve months ago when he entered the final round tied for the lead. A simple formula of finding 76% of fairways, 81% of greens, and an average putting week had him on the brink of victory until his putter went deserted him on Sunday. I know it’s a big ask but I believe Lee can recreate that charge this week given his streaky nature, and if he can keep his putter under control, you’d never know.