James Diffley Executive Director | IHS Markit Economics
Sent: Monday, September 18, 2017 1:27 PM The number in our report was 66.7 million, any mistake in precision was mine; When I check our current forecast, which we did revise with new 2016 data, I get 62.1 million. Our current projection for Austin is for growth from 2.064 m in 2016 to 3.780 in 2046. Jim
Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2017 12:19 PM Is there a new chart folding in the metro region projections including the one you mention for Austin below? I see that the estimated 2016 population also is down from what the report listed for 2016. If there is a new chart, I’d like to share that. I also am interested in the issue date for the new projections. G. From: Diffley, Jim Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2017 11:57 AM The Census Bureau released new 2016 population estimates in March 2017, we released new projections in April, top ten table below.
| Geography | Concept | Unit | 2016 | 2046 | increase | growth | 1 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 7,251.9 | 11,112.2 | 3,860.3 | 53.2% | 2 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 6,786.1 | 10,325.3 | 3,539.1 | 52.2% | 3 | Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 4,673.4 | 7,283.8 | 2,610.4 | 55.9% | 4 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 4,534.5 | 7,029.9 | 2,495.5 | 55.0% | 5 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 5,801.1 | 8,259.4 | 2,458.3 | 42.4% | 6 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 6,073.9 | 7,997.7 | 1,923.8 | 31.7% | 7 | Austin-Round Rock, TX | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 2,063.9 | 3,780.4 | 1,716.4 | 83.2% | 8 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 6,138.8 | 7,820.6 | 1,681.8 | 27.4% | 9 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 2,448.5 | 3,931.0 | 1,482.6 | 60.6% | 10 | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | Population | (Forecast) Thousand | 2,435.8 | 3,641.4 | 1,205.6 | 49.5% |
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2017 1:59 PM Did you have a chart reflecting these more recent estimates that would be comparable to the chart that made it into the appendix of the May report for all MSAs? Is it fair to say you presented to the mayors in June based on the firm’s May report, which had in its chart older (outdated?) population estimates for 2016 and 2046? If so, perhaps there’s a logistical explanation. More significantly, is there any aspect of the latest estimates excerpted below that would change your declaration to the mayors that the Austin region ranks among metro areas expected to grow by more than 50 percent in population by 2046? G.
1:09 p.m.
There are no such implications at all here, any revisions are minor for the purposes of the research – the cause was simply the publication time lag between report preparation, publication, and release. During that period new data was released and we have a forecast cycle that accommodates many small revisions every month. When I presented at the Miami conference in June, it was well after the report release – but, as it was our most recent report, copies were naturally made available to all attendees. Jim
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