Afterward

By 2030 depicts a somewhat hopeful time beyond the Great Collapse of society and climate. But why 2025 for the start date and 2030 for recovery? Too soon? Perhaps. The short answer is science. The long answer is #Itstheclimatestupid, in combination with the many dysfunctional and antisocial human behaviors and actions we’re now witnessing have led me to select these dates. Arguably these dates are as good a place as ever for stimulating discussions and inspire collective action.

Renowned climate scientist James Hansen and his colleagues made dire predictions about our climate future in their paper Global Warming in the Pipeline. They concluded with a desperate plea for young people to:

“grasp the situation that they have been handed,” because only they “have the opportunity to provide the drive for a revolutionary third party that restores democratic ideals while developing the technical knowledge that is needed to navigate the stormy sea that their world is setting out upon.”

We have no means to accurately calculate a collapse or extinction date, nor do we have the political capital to end fossil fuel use in our lifetimes, so our only plan is to kick that can down the road, and count on the next generation to fix our mess?

Climate scientists can predict at what point methane, carbon dioxide, and temperature will reach levels unable to support human life, but they can’t accurately measure how these factors impact one another because there are simply too many dynamics at play.

Climate scientists can make predictions that a specific aspect of the climate, e.g., global air or water temperature, or CO2 levels could look like by mathematical extrapolation and extending a simple slope line to some arbitrary date in the future such as 2030 or 2050. But that exercise can’t predict an actual collapse date, let alone extinction. Understandably, rarely do scientists factor in other variables outside their narrow area of expertise. Even when they do have longitudinal data, without consideration of intersecting, external factors, their predictions remain weaker and less meaningful.

It is even less feasible to accurately quantify social dynamics or even a single political event that could trigger a chain of events leading to a collapse of either climate or the state, let alone both. For example, a global Black Sky event lasting several months could lead to meltdowns of hundreds of nuclear energy plants worldwide, which would be catastrophic. In addition, the widespread rioting and looting accompanying a Black Sky event could contribute to the collapse of a state-level society or societies.

Another example from today's news is how our current national security is being compromised with leaky group chat at a time when virtually all our true allies are upset with how the Trump administration seems to be parlaying intel with Russia and China, our historical adversaries. Like the climate factors, social factors are simply too dynamic and complex to reliably calculate outcomes.

Given the failure of predictive models to fully account for both sets of known factors, any predictions for collapse or extinction should be accelerated exponentially. For the sake of argument, add in our third existential threat or wildcard, Artificial Intelligence (AI) which is already driving chaos in several sectors and has dramatically accelerated our energy budget. But as I pointed out in the preface, perhaps sooner will prove better than later.

2030 is my best-case scenario for survivors trying to reboot their lives after a Great Collapse event. This collapse could happen as soon as early 2025, thanks to President Trump who is letting Musk systematically fire thousands of hard working public employees, release AI on secure federal datasets to compromise their integrity, and close down federal departments and agencies, all while Trump's incompetent advisors deal with their group chat fiasco. Meanwhile, members of Congress seem to be intentionally keeping their powder dry, as if their job security was more important than their oath to protect the Constitution. 

I may be way off, but my reading of recent political events and climate science findings both strengthen 2025 as a final tipping point, but also it makes my prediction of 2030 extremely optimistic as a starting point for our recovery.

Perhaps I’m the one whistling past a graveyard, but I think a case can be made for a collapse sooner rather than later being less catastrophic because today we can still benefit from a degree of resilience. Our warehouses are not yet emptied as they will become over time as the global supply chain and Trump's tariffs lead to stockpiling by the "haves" and hoarding by others. Plus our current efforts at sustainability and rewilding landscapes, not to mention life lessons gained from surviving the pandemic can be counted as resilience factors. As we watch the announcement of tens of thousands of federal employees being fired from the NIH, NOAA, and other aspects of our federal safety net, it is clear that access for most Americans to adequate healthcare and critical information will be compromised in the months ahead. Add in the climate emergency, how scientists repeatedly say we are crossing threshold boundaries and that we can soon expect significant die offs of organisms worldwide. And in case you're wondering, I arrive at one date for both, because so many intersecting climate factors stem back to human events and missteps. Regardless, whether you accept the science and what your own eyes and ears tell you, I argue that. 2030 as a rebuilding start date, is as good a date as any for discussions and planning purposes.

Frankly, most of us view extinction in the abstract and we want to keep it that way. We fill our heads with so many distractions because an end date is unthinkable. But what if an honest and informed discussion about an end date were the critical step we need to take to prevent extinction, or at least slow it down?

Many factors can serve as catalysts for other actions through rippling effects, which could lead to catastrophic events poised to occur exponentially sooner than we might imagine. We shouldn’t be looking to any single tipping point, but instead the totality of intersectional dynamics, and what social scientists call qualitative data. But with so many variables, how do we even begin?

Groups like the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC) are doing integrative research, but like other climate scientists they can’t begin to model the social factors. Of course a much better strategy would be to simply avoid extinction by identifying key factors and eliminating them, and we should start with fossil fuels. But that idea has become a bridge too far for billions of humans worldwide who are trapped in state level economies reliant upon development, growth, and consumption at any price.

Recently the SRC noted we’ve now crossed six of nine critical planetary boundaries, and we have exceeded thresholds into unsafe and uncharted zones. But few major news outlets have covered the story of how overshoots will impact our future.

Our lack of attention to the coming climate collapse has prompted me to find another way to convey this message. This is why Annie and Andy have stepped in to give people a glimpse of a hopeful, albeit post-apocalyptic future. I hope to give people something to strive for, instead of avoiding the subject due to our fears.

In my opinion, virtually every American institution is already in disrepair, and all the partisan bickering and the so-called culture wars are making it worse. In other words, we have already entered the dystopian world we dread. It was already clear that we would face a tumultuous future, no matter who was elected. And our current preoccupation with “our side is right” patriotic fervor may lead us into a second Civil War, perhaps even a final blow to American society. 

It is my sincere hope that some of us will survive to see 2030 and beyond. After the chaos stemming from the social, political, and climate upheaval, will we be able to rebuild our nation? Will we even remember our collective human tribal roots? Will we reestablish our global bonds, while recognizing our role as stewards and protectors for our respective regions of the world? I have more hope for other parts of the world that are less dependent upon the so-called world leader, as President Trump proves his administration is incompetent and rife with fascists and loathing. In fact, him pulling us into isolation with his nationalistic drumbeat may prove to help European nations and others to stand back and shore up their own resilience.

But for now we collectively face catastrophic climate events, because of our persistent mismanagement of precious resources and our extreme over-consumption worldwide. Many overshoot events are already in play, including several self-perpetuating feedback loops, meaning we can no longer stop them until another significant Ice Age occurs. A number of climate science watchers who have examined the data are convinced it’s too late for us, that soon we will all be extinct. My opinion is that we can and should do more than simply hope they are wrong.

Because of our collective failures at stewarding the Earth thus far, we will soon be forced to stop relying on global commodities and middlemen. Soon we will have to relearn how to make and do many things for ourselves within local communities, which is how we survived and thrived for 300,000 years. Perhaps we can relearn the sacred value of other creatures as collective partners in Earth’s stewardship. 

Will we be able to turn this around, or at least slow down the pace of the coming climate chaos? Will we be able to apply some of the tenets of ecological wisdom, such as leaving some of every resource behind, to maintain viable populations? Will we remember diversity not only makes life more interesting, but it is a crucial source of resilience? Many grassroot activists and average people are already striving to make a difference, but monied interests keep pushing to the brink at break-neck speed. The COP 28 was a great example of this greenwashing.

Those of us with a sense of conscience will do what we can to protect the Earth. We can draw on the rich and diverse traditional knowledge of Indigenous people, and others with generational heritage to improve on our stewardship of the Earth. Traditional peoples have archived their wisdom of the ages in their traditional stories, which can be our collective human stories, if we listen to them. These sacred stories, embedded with generational knowledge, are critical to our survival as a species. We must teach our young to listen to the ancient wisdom of people who have lived in a place for many generations and to learn from them. I truly believe this is an essential part of our last, best hope.

What if we start our stewardship with a full scale overhaul of our infrastructure and our stifling and dysfunctional bureaucracies? How about making the megarich pay for their fair share of the costs for transforming our infrastructure? Only when everyone in a community contributes to the fix, will our collective efforts matter, in any significant way. Our pay it forward commitment and investment will benefit future generations, our children’s future.

Only when we are unified in achieving a better life for everyone, and when we rid ourselves from this survival game we back into, can we truly be free to live, love, laugh. Most importantly, we must come to terms with our climate, to have any chance of surviving beyond the existential trifecta we are facing today.

It is urgent that we rebuild our sense of community, our faith in each other, and that we reshape our institutions for the common good. My hope is this story will ignite imaginations and spark conversations, perhaps even debates around the difficult issues we are avoiding. Let’s stop dreading and relearn how to embrace our future for the sake of younger and future generations. We see some of what’s broken, and frankly, it’s wrongheaded not to discuss it. We should demand our press and our political candidates speak to these pressing matters. We must see the whole game board, and not simply speak past each other with partisan talking points. 

After over a year of working on this project, I am acutely aware of how hard-pressed we are to wrap our heads around more than one existential threat at a time. I think many scientists concur about the possibility of the combined threat of climate collapse, societal collapse, and now artificial intelligence (AI), a wild card accelerant for all of society, leading us to extinction.

As a positive note, I still see as our possible saving grace, who we are. It is no accident we are the last surviving hominid species. We have the collective DNA and adaptations for our entire family tree. We have the potential to save ourselves and countless species coexisting with us, just as certainly as we had a major role in creating the fix we are in. Therefore, it is just and righteous for us to face the hard road ahead, and it is advisable we do it with our eyes wide open. We must willfully stare into the abyss, while seeking light at the end of our dystopian tunnel.  

Will there be a sequel to By 2030? I don’t know. Maybe you will have to write it or live it instead. But first let’s start with conversations about this book. Here’s to those who prove to have the aptitude, determination, and resilience to become survivors. May you rebuild a more sustainable, caring world with unwavering respect for all life, and a moral obligation to protect our Earth and our climate for generations to come.

When my father was near the end of his days, if anyone asked him how he was doing, he would smile and say, “Well, considering the alternative,” and he would laugh. I don’t see any choice but for us to put on our big-person pants, and face our existential threats, preferably sooner, rather than later. If we wait, our worst fears will most assuredly become our epitaph.

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