IGCSE Population Case studies

Table of contents        1

1.1 Bangladesh: A country that is overpopulated        2

1.1 Australia: A country that is under-populated        4

1.1 Swaziland: A country with a high rate of natural population growth        5

1.1 Japan: A country with a low (negative) rate of population growth        7

1.3 Japan: A country with a high dependent population        8

1.2 Poland and UK: An example of international migration        8

1.4 Okavango Delta and around Gaborone in Botswana: A densely populated area        10

1.4 Kalahari desert in Botswana: A sparsely populated area        10

1.1 Bangladesh: A country that is overpopulated

Background

• Overpopulation is where there are too many people to be supported to a good standard of living by the resources of the country.
• Bangladesh is overpopulated, particularly in the central regions where there is a very high population density.
• Population of Bangladesh facts:

• 157,826,578 (July 2017 est.), the 7th largest in the world.
• Total dependency ratio: 52.6.
• High birth rate (Mother’s mean age at first birth: 18.5 years, median age at first birth among women 25-29).
• Population growth rate of 1.6%.

Reasons for overpopulation in Bangladesh

• High birth rates:

• 47% of the working population are involved in agriculture -  large families are needed to work on the farms.
• Muslims constitute 85% of the population, many religious leaders do not advocate the use of contraception.
• Little education, only 48% of the population are literate meaning high-power career opportunities to women are rare. Many are not able to understand or access contraceptives.
• Healthcare is poor, with an infant mortality rate 5.07%. This means more children are born to ensure a next generation.

Problems with overpopulation in Bangladesh

• Economic problems:

• About 40% of the population is underemployed; many people who are counted as employed work only a few hours a week and at low wages.
• Unemployment for many others.

• Social problems:

• Not enough schools to educate everyone, only 48% of the people are literate:
• Not enough hospitals meaning people die relatively young, life expectancy is 72.
• Risk of major infectious diseases is high, such as bacterial and protozoal diarrhea, hepatitis A and E, and typhoid fever (due to unclean food).

• Environmental:

• Lack of access to clean water sources and sufficient sanitation. Meaning 7,000 children die every year from diarrhoea.
• Widespread deforestation, increasing soil erosion and the flood risk for the major rivers such in the country, such as The Brahmaputra.

Solutions that the country has undertaken

• Greater emphasis on women's conditions. For example policies to prevent domestic violence. This empowers women to take a more active role in deciding family size.
• Government support for emigration. Many Bangladeshi nationals are working in southern and south-east Asia as manual labourers.

• In 2016 Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina signed an agreement with Malaysia to send a total of 1.5 million Bangladeshi workers in stages for 3 years to Malaysia.

• Urban improvement schemes in major cities to improve sanitation. A number of these projects are being undertaken by NGOs such as WaterAid. (http://www.wateraid.org/bd/our-programmes)

1.1 Australia: A country that is underpopulated

Background

• An underpopulated country is when there not enough people to utilise resources efficiently.
• Australia is a classic example of an underpopulated country.
• Population of Australia facts:

• 21.7 million people.
• Growth rate:1.4%.
• Birth rate: 21.1 births/1000 population.
• Death rate: 7.2 deaths/1000 population.
• 3.1 people per square kilometre - a very low density.

Reasons for under population

• Low initial aboriginal population at time of colonisation that were later marginalised. During colonisation, Australia was a long way away for European settlers, meaning many who emigrated to the “new world’ tended to go to North America instead.
• Current low birth rates as it is a stage four country on the demographic transition model.

• Families are small as women have a prominent role in the workforce, greater emphasis is put on leisure time and material goods.

• Most people are living in the coastal regions of Australia where the climate, particularly the east coast meaning the hinterland of the “Outback” is virtually uninhabited.

• Coastal regions have a more favourable climate, better transport links and job opportunities.

Problems with underpopulation in Australia

• Economic problems:

• Shortage of labour in several industries such as agriculture.

• Small market for companies meaning there are few urban centres with a high enough threshold population for higher order services away from the coastal regions. This further discourages people to move to these underpopulated areas.
• Small local market discourages foreign direct investment.

• Social problems

• Small tax paying base. Reduces funding for schools and hospitals.
• Low numbers of people for armed services.
• Small rural settlements have high levels of alcoholism, in part due to lack of social and economic opportunities.

Solutions that the country has undertaken

• The government has, in general encouraged migration and in the past sought  immigrants from the UK and Ireland. Recently there has been a target on highly skilled migrants for the mining industry, a major source of wealth.
• In 2012 there was net migration 236,000. Immigration is encouraged by offering clear pathways to Australian citizenship.

• But the arrival of a new wave immigrants from Asia has led to a tightening up of immigration due to some political and social unrest.

• There has been a focus on investment in the most underpopulated area, the Northern Territories, to encourage migration to that region.
• Tax breaks and other incentives to increase the birth rate ha ve also been employed in other underpopulated countries.

1.1 Swaziland: A country with a high rate of natural population growth

Background

• Swaziland in an LEDC in  southern Africa.
• The present population growth rate of Swaziland is 1.195%, but this hides a very high birth rate. The population growth rate is only being kept in check by a high HIV infection rate in the country.

Reasons why is the birth rate so high

• Economic reasons:

• Parents in LEDCs want more children to work on the family’s farm. Swaziland is still largely an agricultural society that is based on cattle herding.

• Poor healthcare. Due to limited government funding and unreliable food security there is a high infant mortality rate (5.48%). A high infant mortality rate encourages more children to be born in order to secure the next generation.
• Low levels of funding for education limits the spread of knowledge about contraceptives. Families are too poor to buy any contraceptives.
• Parents want to have many children to look after them when they are elderly due to a lack of pensions as few people work in the formal economy.

• Cultural reasons:

• In a Polygamous society, such as Swaziland a man can be married to more than one wife. Swaziland is a famous example of a polygamous society due to it’s annual Reed Dance.The former king of Swaziland, King Sobuza had 70 wives and 210 children. The current monarch, King Mswati has 15 wives.
  
• Parents often keep trying for a child until until a son is born to carry on the family name.
• Swaziland has significant evangelical christian and catholic communities - these two religions oppose any form of contraception and encourage families to have children.

• Demographic reasons:

• Swaziland has a large proportion of females of childbearing age meaning there is a high fertility rate.
• Population breakdown (percentage is of total population) is 15-24 years: 22.12% (male 164,117/ female 160,478) 25-54 years: 34.6% (male 264,262/ female 243,362).

Problems with a high birth rates

• Overcrowding in Swaziland's urban centres like Manzini and Mbabane (pictured below).
• More pressure on services like schools - overcrowding in classrooms is common.
• Social unrest as was seen in the public protests in 2010 and 2011.

1.1 Japan: A country with a low (negative) rate of population growth

Background

• Japan is an example of a stage 5 country on the demographic transition model and it has an overall population decline of -0.1%.

• Birth rate - 7.7/1000.
• Death rate - 9.8/1000.
• Life expectancy - 85 years (males - 81.7 , females - 88.5).

• Population facts:

• Japan has a population of 127 million in the year 2016
• GDP - 4.393 trillion USD.GDP per capita - 38,894.47 USD.
• The largest Japanese cities include Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya with Tokyo being the biggest with 9.2 million inhabitants .
• Japan has a median age of 46.9.
• People aged 65 and above make up 26.7% of the total population.

Reasons for low population growth

• There has been low birth rates over a sustained period due to a number of cultural reasons:

• Women entering the workforce.
• Breakdown of traditional extended families meaning their is less social pressure for children.
• Increased acceptance of alternative lifestyles.
• Long working hours in Japanese corporate culture that makes child rearing harder.
• Increasing interest in technology amongst the young vs social interaction.

Problems with population decline

• Contraction of cities is likely to happen in the future - meaning buildings will become derelict, unsafe and unsightly.
• High costs of pensions and elderly care and less workers to pay taxes towards this (high dependency ratio). The cost of social security benefits are expected to double from 1995 to 2025.
• Pressure on facilities for the elderly - in 2011 it was reported that 420,000 elderly people were waiting for a place in care homes. This has led to a spike in elderly crime.
• GDP contraction. Japan’s GDP has stagnated for a long time and any gains need to come from productivity gains.

Solutions to the problems of population decline

• There have been efforts to reduce the cost of benefits and increase tax revenues by raising the state pension age from 60 to 65.
• In 2000 a long term care insurance scheme was introduced to ensure that people can meet medical costs later in life.
• Japan‘s government policy says that they would like an increase in population growth and fertility level. They are trying to achieve this by a number of policies such as encouraging men to assist with child care.
• Japan would like to increase migration for highly skilled workers. However this has caused some backlash in a socially homogenous society.

1.3 Japan: A country with a high dependent population

Background

• Notes above also useful!
• Japan is a population with a high number of dependents (people who do not work).
• A dependant population is a part of a population that does not work and relies on the working part of the population for goods and services they consume. This comes in the form of schools, nursing homes and social housing that is provided by the government and paid for by income and other taxes.
• How can a Dependency ratio be worked out?

• This can be worked out by adding the number of children ( under the age of 15) with the older ages (over the age of 65) then dividing it by the number of working adults and then multiplying by 100.

Reasons for a high dependency ratio in Japan

• Japan is an MEDC country. MEDC countries tend to have better healthcare, good facilities and good diets so people live longer. There is also a low birth rate as mentioned in the case study above.

1.2 Poland and The UK: An example of international migration

Background

• In 2004 Poland and other eastern European countries (known as the A8) joined the European Union (EU). The EU allows the free movement of people.
• Unlike many other EU countries, The UK allowed migrants from these countries to enter the UK immediately, provided they registered to work.
• Other EU countries delayed allowing free movement. This led to a mass wave of immigration to the UK from Poland and other new members of the EU.

Reasons for emigration from Poland

• GDP of $12,700, compared to UK’s $30,900.
• Lack of infrastructure and a conducive business/industrial environment. For example there was a difficult tax system. This made things especially difficult for entrepreneurs.
• Youth unemployment was at around 40%, total unemployment was at 18.5% in 2005.

Reasons for immigration into The UK

• Although wages for the immigrants in the UK were sometimes under the minimum wage (as they were employed illegally), it was still a higher wage than many “well-paid” jobs in Poland.
• The Uk was one of the countries that did not restrict immigration initially.
• Larger cities like London and Manchester are cosmopolitan with many different ethnicities living there. This made it a more accommodating location than more racially homogenous countries.

• Many Polish people already had family ties to the UK that stretched back to WWII.

• Education standards are good in the UK and English is a prized international language.

Benefits to Poland of emigration

• Money sent home to relatives in Poland (remittances).
• Improvement in social, cultural and political links to the UK.
• Reduced pressure on schools and hospitals in Poland.
• Lower levels of unemployment in Poland as more jobs become available for people who have stayed.
• The migrants that returned to Poland had greater wealth, better language skills and experiences for certain jobs.

• Much of this money and these skills were used to create new businesses in Poland.

Benefits to UK of immigration

• Workers like plumbers and electricians have migrated filling job shortages in the UK.
• There are improved social, cultural and political links to Poland.
• The majority of Poles stay in the UK as they have jobs, therefore the majority will be/ are paying taxes.
• Immigrants often do their jobs better whilst being payed lower.

Problems for Poland of emigration

• The economically active left Poland which increased the dependency ratio.
• Family division.
• Loss of skilled workers (particularly in the construction sector).
• Tax income decreased.

Problems for the UK of immigration

• Cost of educating Polish students is high as many of them speak only Polish. Many UK schools have needed to hire translators and teaching assistants.
• Increased pressure on welfare support if immigrants become unemployed in the UK.
• Increased congestion and pollution in towns with high numbers of Polish immigrants like Peterborough.
• Demand for housing has been higher, therefore the rents/prices have increased.
• Political unrest from far-right groups protesting against migration.

Recent developments

• The UK voted “out” in the EU referendum a major reason for this was perceived problems caused by large numbers of eastern european migrants moving to the UK.
• Brexit (the exit of Britain from the EU) is currently being negotiated.

1.4 Okavango Delta and around Gaborone in Botswana: A densely populated area

… And...

1.4 Kalahari Desert in Botswana: A sparsely populated area

Background

• Botswana is an LEDC in southern Africa.
• In Botswana, generally, there is a low population density because there are only 2.25 million people living in the country that is 600,370 km².
• There are however regional differences in the population density.

• The most densely populated areas are the along the east near the capital, Gaborone, and the north around the Okovango Delta. Gaborone has more than 10 people per km².

• There are very few people living in the Kalahari Desert, which makes up a large part of the country. This are has less than 1 person per km².
• To find the population density you have to divide the population by the area in km².

High density areas

• Economic reasons:

• The are jobs available in shops, offices and industry in Gaborone as it is the capital of Botswana. Many companies, including transnational mining companies have their offices in the city.
• The Okavanga Delta is home to the countries’s ecotourism industry. Many touirists fly in and out of Gaborone - providing many job opportunities in these areas, both directly (such as hotel waiters and  tour guides) and indirectly (taxi drivers and shopkeepers).
• There is a railway system, tarred road along the south east where Gaborone is located which helps encourage importing and exporting industries.
• Electricity is also produced in this region so it is a natural pull factor to businesses and people who want to build houses.
• Diamonds, the major resource in the country is extracted from around Gaborone and the Okavango delta, providing numerous jobs.
• The percentage of Botswanans living in urban centres increased from 1% in 1964 to 61% in 2011. The biggest growth has been in Gaborone. This is down to migration with people being attracted to the above pull factors.

• Physical reasons:

• The soil is fertile around Gaborone and the delta so arable farming can be carried out. This allows the formation of higher density nucleated settlements.
• The Okavango delta and adjacent river can be fished, and the water can be used for daily needs such washing, irrigation and and drinking water.

Low density areas

• Physical reasons:

• Annual rainfall is less than 400mm in the Kalahari. The rains when they come are in big downpours meaning there can be flash floods.
• Soils are sandy, salty and contain few nutrients to support plant growth.

• Human reasons:

• One of the main ethnic groups in the Kalahari are the Basarwa people who are nomadic hunters and gatherers, meaning they have to move around over a large area. There are few permanent homes to form centres of population as a result.
• Many people have migrated out of the area in search more opportunities in Gaborone. (See section below).

• Economic:

• As the soils are poor they have a low carrying capacity meaning few animals can be supported. As a result farms are widely dispersed and employ few people.
• There are few roads in the area to encourage other industries.

Migration patterns

• Internal migration has further exacerbated the discrepancy in population density.

• Rural to urban migration. People have moved from the rural areas move to the urban cities for more employment and a better pay.  Education, entertainment and the chance to meet a partner are also important factors. These are all pull factors.
• Push factors include food and water shortages in the Kalahari region.

• International (involuntary) migration. At various periods refugees from Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe have come to Botswana, fleeing violence or persecution. The majority of these migrants settled in the more attractive regions such as around Gaborone.