Research Proposal

Jordan O’Connell

Department of Political Science, Pace University

Applied Research Methods: Research Proposal

Understanding the Return to Far-Right Politics within Italy Through the Lense of a Qualatitve Analysis

Dr. Paul Londrigan

ABSTRACT

For decades after the construction of the Republic, the Italian parliamentary system has swung from leading coalition to the next relatively quickly but for the overwhelming majority of that time politically “left” or “center-left” coalitions, prime ministers, and presidents have been the leading governing body of the Italian Constitutional Republic. Underlying this governing body was a far-right political point of view, one of the main proprietors of this is the Fratelli d’Italia or “Brothers of Italy” which materialized as a coalition in 2014 and is rooted in the Movimento Sociale Italiano (MSI). MSI was a neo-fascist party created in 1946 which ran in elections but retained a hostility toward the republic created at the end of the anti-fascist resistance. The recent election in Italy led to the election of Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, the first female prime minister, but also the farthest right prime minister since 1942. The focus of this research paper is to seek to understand the return to far-right politics within Italy’s parliament system, through analyzing the fascism to populism to neo-fascism pipeline that is being observed throughout Europe. Understanding this “return to fascism” is essential to grasping the projection of the future state of politics both domestic and foreign within not only Italy but the majority of European countries undergoing this relapse of right-wing political ideologies and structure. Using Italy as the key focus country for this study will work to explore the projections for the other countries in the European Union, as well as all of those in Europe as other European countries’ facets of demographics begin to look increasingly like the population of Italy.

The focused question for this research paper is; what factors created the divergence from the general public opinion and electoral representation of left-leaning Italian politics in a post World War II Italian parliamentary construction to the once again far-right politics being displayed through public opinion and elections in Italy in 2022? To answer this question my research will look at many different features of public information such as elected officials’ party affiliations through the narrowed down two perspectives of left and right as well as other research on the history of Italy’s parliament system and politics. By piecing together and continuing the research of the ideology pipeline of fascism to populism to neo-fascism and conducting a statistical analysis of Italian Parliamentary elected officials’ party affiliation this research will work to understand why there has been a drastic return to far-right politics. I hypothesize that the return to far-right politics as viewed through public opinion and electoral representation in the Italian government is directly linked to the ever-increasing old-age population of the country.

To understand the topics being discussed in this paper it is essential to define the terms and concepts being used throughout for perfect clarity of the proposed notions at hand. To dissect the politics of Italy it is first crucial to have a realized comprehensive idea of the Italian political structure. The Italian Constitutional Republic is the governing system of Italy, it is the Parliamentary Republic of Italy meaning it consists of legislative, executive, and judicial subdivisions, as well as a Head of State, or President. The executive branch of the Constitutional Republic is the Italian Prime Minister/Executive Parliament which is the Council of Ministers who are the principal executive organ of the Government of Italy. It comprises the President of the Council which is the Prime Minister of Italy who as previously mentioned is currently Giorgia Meloni, all the ministers, and the undersecretary to the President of the council. To further analyze the government structure of Italy it is essential to understand the construction of the Parliament system which is mostly still observed today, only with slight differences for population and regional division. The World War II Italian Parliamentary Construction is how the Italian Parliament was set up to be structured, it is composed of the Chamber of Deputies, with 630 members elected on a national basis, and the Senate of the Republic with 315 members elected on a regional basis, plus a small number of senators for life, either appointed or ex-executive officials. Presently the Senate is still elected on a regional basis, but the number of senators was reduced from 315 to 200, who are now elected by all citizens aged 18 or older, just like Deputies, with the number of seats in the Chamber being reduced from 630 to 400. The two Houses are independent of one another and never meet jointly except under circumstances specified by the Italian Constitution. Now with a basic understanding of how the Italian government is structured, it is also important to understand the other essential concepts being outlined by the variables and other research being utilized within this paper. Fascism is a political philosophy, movement, or regime such as that of the Fascisti, also known as Mussolini’s regime, that works to exalts nation and often race above the individual, which stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition. Populism was the ideology of representing the people, the inherent belief in the wisdom, rights, and virtues of the “common people” of a state, essentially, those in power supposedly working directly for the people. Neo-fascism is a political movement arising in Europe after World War II which is characterized by policies designed to incorporate the basic principles of fascism, such as nationalism and opposition to democracy, into existing political systems. While this movement came to fruition after World War II, as seen represented in Italy by the Movimento Sociale Italiano, neo-fascism has always been underneath the surface but it has become the predominant “ideology” of politics in Italy, and other European countries over the past couple of years. The last pieces of this puzzle to understand are the demographics of the Italian population and how that affects public opinion, as witnessed through electoral representation. They are all key features of both the population and public aspects of Italy that work to understand the return to far-right politics, as it is that very same public who elects the officials of the Parliamentary Republic in the first place. Public opinion is an aggregate of the individual views, attitudes, and beliefs about a particular topic, expressed by the significant proportion of a community, and for this particular research public opinion is being measured by electoral representation. Electoral representation is the act of having voted someone into a governing office for them to speak or act on behalf of someone or the state. Finally, to comprehend the population of Italy there is a requirement of understanding an Old-age Population and Italy’s aging population. An Old-age Population is a population in which the percentage that is aged 65 years and older is increasing relative to all other age groups and Italy’s Aging Population can be understood through the statistics of Italy having the third oldest population in the world, as of the year 2020, 23 percent of the Italian population were aged 65 years and older.

The dependent variable of my research is far-right politics which will be measured by public opinion and quantitatively analyzed through electoral representation in Italy’s Republic Parliament, and the increasing old-age population percentage of Italy will be the independent variable. My dependent variable is discrete and nominal because this research will count the number of representatives elected to the Italian Parliamentary system that affiliates with a right-winged coalition. The independent variable of the old-age population of Italy is a continuous variable as it is counting the percentage of the old-age population which can exist on the continuum of 0 to 100 percent. The independent variable can further be defined as interval/ratio data as it is centered on the old-age population percentage which is the ratio of the Italian old-age population to the total Italian population with the intervals being each year.

My research will do a quantitative analysis to find if the increased old aged population is a prominent factor that led to the increased electoral representation from far-right politicians. To complete this analysis parameters for the research need to be set, for my dependent variable, the data I will be analyzing is the number of right-wing politicians elected to parliament and for my independent variable I will be analyzing the old age population percentage, and the data sets will both be tracking these variables from 1982-2022. It is also important to be aware that for this research the data being used will not be collected by me as it deals with data as total populations, it will all come directly from Italian public records on population pyramids created through the Italian census and the Italian parliaments governing body through a numerical count of politically right-winged officials. To test my hypothesis this research will use the statistical measure of a correlation coefficient, the correlation coefficient, known as the variable ρ, describes how one variable moves in relation to another. A positive correlation will indicate that the two variables move in the same direction, with a value of 1 denoting a perfect positive correlation. A value of -1 shows a perfect negative, or inverse, correlation, while zero means no linear correlation exists. In order to calculate the correlation coefficient of the dependent and independent variables, first I will calculate the covariance. Covariance measures the direction of a relationship between two variables, whereas correlation coefficient measures the strength of that relationship. Before beginning to explain these calculations, it is important to remember the independent variable is x and the dependent variable is y, once the data for each year of x and y are collected the equation for total population covariance can be used. The equation is as follows, this formula finds the covariance by taking the summation of the data points and dividing it by the number of data points, this equation would be as follows, for every data point another is added. The variable represents the mean of the x variables and represents the mean of the y variables and represents the total population. With this formula, the covariance of x and y can be calculated. If a negative value is reached this means there is a negative relationship, and a positive value means a positive relationship. After finding the covariance of x and y the standard deviations of x and y are needed, this can be found through the equation for the x variable and the equation for the y variable. This equation is once the standard deviations for both the x and y data sets and the covariance of (x,y) has been calculated, the correlation coefficient can be calculated. The correlation coefficient equation is or by using all the previously established equations you take the outputs of them and input them into the correlation coefficient equation to get the output of correlation, as previously stated the output will range somewhere between -1 and 1 and it represents the strength of the correlation. With the correlation coefficient equation, the output of -1 is a 100% negative correlation, 0 being no correlation, and 1 being a 100% positive correlation. To prove the hypothesis for this research, that the increase in right-winged political officials elected as representatives in the Italian Republic Parliament is directly correlated to the increasing old-age population of Italy, the correlation coefficient output should be 0.7 or higher as that is recognized as a strong correlation. However, any positive outcome from the correlation coefficient would present evidence of a correlation between the independent and dependent variables.

In order to establish support for the hypothesis of this research the utilization of previous research and literature on the topic is a requisite. Research on this return to far-right “traditionalism” and the growth of “neo-fascism” in Italy is not abundantly found in existing literature as it is perceived as an extremely current event, but this notion of the return to far-right politics being a “current event” needs to be slightly altered rather than fully corrected to the point that it was a slow-burn rise of the party but the election of Giorgia Meloni is a current event. Giorgia Meloni was elected as the Prime Minister of Italy on the 26th of September, 2022, and has been in office since the 22nd of October, she is the leader of the far-right coalition “Fratelli d’Italia” or the “Brothers of Italy” the coalition formed through the political lineage of Mussolini which reaffirms that these political points of view have always been around and just took time to return to the governing body of Italy. To understand why the old-age population is a crucial aspect of this research it is important to first understand fascism and neo-fascism, in Transnational Fascism in the Twentieth Century: Spain, Italy and the Global Neo-Fascist Network by Matteo Albanese, Pablo del Hierro, and Paul Jackson they outline how transnational fascism in the twentieth century worked to establish the global fascist network that has led to the right-wing political violence in modern Europe. In the text, they explore the rise and fall of Mussolini as a dictator and the legacy of MSI that he left behind, and how fascism worked for Mussolini because it was through the Primo de Rivera dictatorship. They also explain how MSI presented itself as a coalition willing to work with the new Italian structure post-WWII and although at the time of the coalition’s conception it did not have much of an immediate effect, the lasting effect is seen today. The important piece of information deciphered from this reading is how fascism worked under dictatorship and neo-fascism works in democratic societies. While neo-fascism did not work immediately in Italy, this is because MSI was implemented right after the fall of fascism so any form of fascism was rejected by the public and in turn, populism was implemented. The pipeline from fascism to populism is outlined by Federico Finchelstein in his book From Fascism to Populism in History, as he draws out populism on a global scale, showing that the world could move once again from populism to fascism. This is a part of the elaboration of his work on fascism to populism that will be continued by my research, the pipeline from fascism to populism to neo-fascism. To center on why this transition from populism to neo-fascism is possible, I maintain Finchelstein begins to create an understanding of this pipeline through his definition of post-fascist populism. This concept of post-fascist or modern populism has been characterized by authoritarian tendencies, but within democratic frameworks, by extreme forms of political religions, and by the homogenization of complex political demands into friend and enemy dichotomies. This framework of modern populism easily works to establish a neo-fascist framework as these populist ideologies are reciprocated in neo-fascism. Looking at Italy today and the political platform of the Brothers of Italy uses religion, nationalism, and a friend/enemy environment with the anti-immigration policy rooted in xenophobia. Modern populism allowed for the reintroduction of the neo-fascist ideologies of MSI in a modern global and domestic political environment. This idea is further explored by Omar García Olascoaga in the book Presence of Neo-fascism in Contemporary European Democracies where Neo-fascism is explained not as a static phenomenon but as one that has manifested itself in several stages through schools of thought, social movements, political parties, and political regimes, all of which allowed for neo-fascism to resurface in modern-day Italy and Europe.

Now with both the fascism versus neo-fascism and the fascism to populism to neo-fascism understanding an analysis of why the increasing old-age population most likely correlates to the increased elections of right-wing politicians in Italy can be elaborated upon. The article “Is the Left-Right Scale a Valid Measure of Ideology?” from Political Behavior by Paul Bauer works to explain how political affiliations are decided upon. Bauer uses a model that consists of four stages: comprehension, retrieval, judgment, and response, with each stage comprising a different mental process that leads to an ultimate political ideology that falls on the left-right scale. Understanding this process and then applying it to the now old-age population of Italy that either grew up during the end of fascism or during post-fascist populism, one can depict how the ideologies presented to this group allowed for the transition from modern populism to neo-fascism. With this knowledge of political ideology formation, this individual political affiliation decision can be applied to generations, in the book Growing up Democratic: Does It Make a Difference? by David Denemark he defines the concept of political generations throughout the globe. Denemark explores how there are substantive differences in the political ideologies of different generations because of the noteworthy historical events each generation experienced, this then further leads to the conclusion that the increased old-age population correlates to the increase in right-winged elected officials in Italy.

This research proposal hypothesized that the return to far-right politics as viewed through public opinion and electoral representation in the Italian government is directly linked to the ever-increasing old-age population of the country. The number of elected right-wing officials serves as the independent variable and the old-age population percentage is the dependent variable. By using data from 1982-2022 and finding the correlation coefficient a quantitative analysis would present the strength of this hypothesized correlation. This hypothesis is backed by the literature review conducted within this paper that worked to explain the fascist to populist to neo-fascist pipeline and that political generations exist and that the historical events that occurred during the most impressionable ages for Italy's old-age population explain a correlation between the two variables. Conducting this research would work to create an understanding of this return to far-right politics. Other countries with increasing old age populations, especially the other countries belonging to the European Union that are also facing a return to right-winged politics would benefit from this research. Having an understanding of the correlation between the old age population and right winged elected officials in Italy could be extremely useful for looking into how this correlation is and will affect the much larger “epidemic” of far-right politics in Europe.

Annotated List of Works Cited

Albanese, Matteo, and Hierro, Pablo del. Transnational Fascism in the Twentieth Century:

Spain, Italy and the Global Neo-Fascist Network, Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, 2016.

ProQuest Ebook Central,

http://ebookcentral.proquest.com.rlib.pace.edu/lib/pace/detail.action?docID=4653913.

This book is about fascism and the transition to neo-fascism in Southern European countries. The text explores Fascist Italy and the Primo de Rivera dictatorship, The Spanish-Italian network during the Second World War, The irruption of the MSI in the fascist network, The consolidation of the MSI inside the network during the first years of the 1950s, and The role of the MSI in the 1960s. The information provided in this book is important to my research as it clarifies the gap between fascism and neo-fascism as well as provides more information on MSI and how the coalition interacted with other European countries, specifically Spain. This look into the past makes the recirculation of some of these ideologies today clearer.

Bauer, Paul, et al. “Is the Left-Right Scale a Valid Measure of Ideology?” Political Behavior,

vol. 39, no. 3, Sept. 2017, pp. 553–83. EBSCOhost,

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-016-9368-2.

This article explores political ideology and ultimately party affiliation. The article works to explain the process of how political ideologies are formed and if the thought behind what forms the left and right-leaning politics is even tangible. It uses a model that consists of four stages: comprehension, retrieval, judgment, and response, with each stage comprising a different mental process that leads to an ultimate political ideology that falls on the left-right scale. This article works with my research as it helps explain how people formulate their political positions and explains possible variables that lead to this conclusion. When applying this research with the other research on the generational effect of politics it synthesizes the idea of how people experience things on an individual level but it can be magnified to represent an entire generation, with some slight variation, which the article also takes into account.

David Denemark, et al. Growing up Democratic: Does It Make a Difference?, Lynne Rienner

Publishers, 2016. ProQuest Ebook Central,

https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/pace/detail.action?docID=4675540.

This book explores and defines the concept of political generations throughout the globe and has a section on southern Europe with tables that explore the definition of political generations and how there are substantive differences in the political ideologies of different generations because of the noteworthy historical events each generation experienced. The book looks at these political generations in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. The book also explores the ideas of generational change in post-authoritarian democracies such as Italy and the effect that has on the country. This text is important to my research as it further defines and solidifies the notion of the generational effect in politics.

Finchelstein, Federico. From Fascism to Populism in History. 1st ed., University of California

Press, 2017. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvpb3vkk.

This book aims to explain the fascism to populism progression that began during

the fascist regimes and lasted to usher in a “new” era of political ideology

through post-fascist populism or modern populism which was believed to work

for the people. This book is a foundational pillar of my research as I used it to progress upon the original pipeline to assert the pipeline of fascism to populism to neo-fascism. I used this book to understand how populism was the replacement for fascism and how because of the ideology supporting populism, the next step in the progression is neo-fascism as populism is one of the roots of neo-fascist ideologies.

Gabriella Lazaridis, et al. The Rise of the Far Right in Europe: Populist Shifts And 'Othering',

Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. ProQuest Ebook Central,

http://ebookcentral.proquest.com.rlib.pace.edu/lib/pace/detail.action?docID=4720541.

This is a book about the rise of far-right politics all over Europe, but has sections that focus on the rise of Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement in Italy was a previously right winged coalition in Italy, but not one as severe as the brothers of Italy. There is a section of the book titled Neo-fascism from the Twentieth Century to the Third Millennium: The Case of Italy that goes into detail discussing the ideas of Neo-Fascism in Post-War Italy through the Legacy of the Past and Adapting to Changing Post-War Contexts, the coalition development From MSI, the coalition that is directly linked to the brothers of Italy, to Fiamma Tricolore and Forza Nuova and how Italian Neo-Fascism in the New Millennium has been was previously scattered into smaller coalitions that were constantly evolving. The brothers of Italy would be a part of this pipeline.

Olascoaga Omar García. “Presence of Neo-Fascism in Contemporary European Democracies

Presencia Del Neofascismo En Las Democracias Europeas Contemporáneas.” Revista Española De Investigaciones Sociológicas (Reis), vol. 162, no. 162, 2018, pp. 3–18., https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.162.3.

This article aims to expose the presence of neo-fascism in European democracies. Neo-fascism is explained as not a static phenomenon but as one that has manifested itself in several stages through schools of thought, social movements, political parties, and political regimes. Without an ideology, fascism in the inter-war period was a pragmatic phenomenon that evolved according to the environment, thus neo-fascism should be approached according to this same dynamic, namely, from its origin as a movement until its final manifestation as a political regime. Today, neo-fascism exists as a profitable option in the electoral market and its presence has grown over the recent years in parliament.